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THE ISSUE IS NOT WHETHER JOE BIDEN WILL STEP DOWN — it’s simply when, our sources are reporting, after the president’s campaign essentially collapsed yesterday. We have no idea when Biden will drop out — it could come as early as his press conference today, but more likely not until late July, ahead of the Democrats’ national convention, which runs from August 19-22.
GEORGE CLOONEY GOT MOST OF THE PUBLICITY yesterday, as he called on Biden to step down, but the thunderbolts came from Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer. Pelosi seemed to indicate that Biden should reconsider his decision to hang on; Schumer stunned everyone on Capitol Hill by suggesting he could live with a nominee other than Biden. Wow, so much for loyalty. You want a friend in Washington? Get a dog.
THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF BIDEN SUPPORTERS who won’t give up and it’s possible that the president will hang on through the summer, as long as his aides keep him tightly scripted. But Clooney, the party’s elite fundraiser, got it right — “the dam has broken,” Clooney said. We have predicted for weeks that Biden would step down, and we continue to believe he will not be in the race on November 5th.
SOON THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT to healing the party’s wounds. The spin will be that Kamala Harris will be a breath of fresh air and a possible winner in November. Perhaps. But Trump and his allies are very well funded and will attack her relentlessly — and negative campaigning usually succeeds.
SOME READERS WONDER why we’re so certain that Harris will be the nominee once Biden drops out. Our take is simple — the party will not antagonize two of its major constituencies — women and people of color. Booting Harris would be suicidal.
WHO WOULD HARRIS PICK as her running mate? The party has a deep bench of highly-regarded governors, headed by Gretchen Whitmer (Mich.) and Josh Shapiro (Pa.). and several others, including the intriguing wild card, Andy Beshear of Kentucky.
BOTTOM LINE: The intense Biden scrutiny will resume late this afternoon, when he holds a high-stakes press conference. Republicans had hoped to dominate the spotlight starting this weekend; their convention begins on Monday. But the focus may stay on Biden — could the Democrats crowd out Trump’s coronation?
Related: The Sleeper Issue of the 2024 Election
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