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THE POLLING INDUSTRY has grappled with questions about its methodology in recent years — which is a major reason why Donald Trump still has a chance to win the presidential election.
TRUMP CONSISTENTLY DOES BETTER IN ELECTION RESULTS than he does in polls taken just before the elections. For example, the final polls could show him with 46 percent before the election — but he may get 48 percent in the actual voting. (Third party candidates may keep the winner’s total slightly below 50 percent).
THERE ARE SEVERAL REASONS WHY Trump beats his polls. One is voter turnout, always difficult to handicap. If it’s cold and icy in Michigan on Nov. 5, would Trump’s loyal base turn out anyway? Would some of Kamala Harris supporters stay at home?
ANOTHER CONTROVERSIAL ISSUE IS how the polls are actually taken. Face-to-face surveys are considered more reliable than telephone calls. Do the polltakers’ calls go to cell phones or land lines? The latter are still popular among senior citizens, who are more likely to be Trump supporters.
AND OF COURSE, THE POLLTAKERS always worry that respondents will say one thing — I’m opposed to Trump — and at the last minute, in the voting booth, decide they can’t vote for Harris.
THESE VARIABLES CAN BE SMOOTHED OUT, but we never could figure out how the polling industry can flat-out say that the margin of error is 2 percent or 3 percent. How can the polltakers be so sure of their margin of error?
PRESIDENTIAL POLLTAKING is so controversial that the Gallup polltakers ceased their presidential surveys. The firm now concentrates on economic issues and public opinion on policies. The presidential polls, the firm has conceded, are too difficult to predict accurately.
STILL ANOTHER REASON WHY HARRIS IS NO SHOO-IN involves nationwide polls versus state polls. If a national poll shows Harris with a 4-point lead, what would that mean in a crucial state like Pennsylvania? Leading in the key states is more important than leading nationwide.
IT’S ENTIRELY POSSIBLE that Trump could lose the national vote total while barely winning in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, etc. It’s all about winning 270 votes in the Electoral College, where Trump seems to have a slightly easier path to winning than Harris.
ANYONE WHO WANTS to see Harris win 270 votes would have to root for a national Harris margin that would exceed 2 or 3 points; she most likely would lose in the Electoral College if she’s in a virtual tie with Trump in the national vote total.
OUR BOTTOM LINE IS THAT PRESIDENTIAL POLLS are a little like the unemployment data. Neither is precisely accurate, so what really matters is the trend. The tremendous enthusiasm Harris brought to the campaign in late August seems to have leveled off — a trend that worries her advisers, who will focus intensely on voter turnout.
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