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Democratic strategists and polltakers are reacting to the Chicago sugar high with a very cautious bottom line: Kamala Harris, they say, is barely ahead in a race that could be tied again by Labor Day.
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. The next big development will be this weekend’s polls that will be released on the Sunday talk shows. Our guess is that Harris will lead nationwide by 4 to 7 points.
Heading into the Labor Day weekend, one number will dominate the narrative: 270, the number of votes needed to win in the Electoral College, and Harris may not be there yet.
We’ll be watching two states as the Sept. 10 debate approaches: North Carolina, where Harris has taken the lead, and Pennsylvania, perhaps the most important state of all, with 19 votes at stake.
Pros in the Democratic Party are urging caution because they fear two key developments:
First, a prevalent uneasiness within the party over polltakers, who may still be underestimating Donald Trump’s support. Sometimes respondents don’t admit they support him.
Second, it’s still all about the economy; people don’t feel they’re doing as well as they did four years ago. And just as the campaign heats up, the economy cools off. The Federal Reserve will become a big factor, starting this morning.
Chicago was quite a love-fest, perhaps too smug and jubilant. Now comes the hard part, which was apparent to us while driving to a conference in Pennsylvania yesterday. Every few miles an enormous Trump billboard appeared.
Trump still has a chance but which candidate ended this week with the most passionate base? Harris, unquestionably. Voter enthusiasm has shifted dramatically.
Related: Money Will Make a Difference in Campaign
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