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ONLY ONE ISSUE MATTERS in Washington in the next few days — it’s not the heat, it’s the debate next Thursday night, which will focus on two huge topics: Is Joe Biden mentally sharp, and is Donald Trump capable of curbing his famous temper? The winner will head into the conventions as the favorite in the general election.
THE KEY DATES THIS SUMMER: Donald Trump sentencing in the “hush money” case — July 11. Republican National Convention, when Trump will unveil his running mate — July 13-18. The Democrats’ National Convention, which could attract thousands of protestors — August 19-22.
IT ALL STARTS this coming Thursday, in a debate with an unusual format — no audience, and CNN moderators who can cut off microphones. The furious spin battle will start with this Sunday’s talk shows, where proxies of the candidates will seek to lower expectations for their candidate.
ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR didn’t make the cut and will not be in the debate, but a poor showing by one or both of the candidates could revive Kennedy’s campaign, which has lost altitude in recent weeks.
THE EXPECTATIONS GAME: Trump and his proxies suddenly have declared that Biden will be a formidable debater, but in truth he isn’t. Biden has had a stuttering problem for his entire life, and he’s infamous for gaffes. Trump has liabilities as well, especially if Biden calls him a convicted felon. This won’t resemble the Lincoln-Douglas debate.
WHAT DEMOCRATS ARE SAYING IN PRIVATE: They think Biden will be well-prepared and will get through the debate without any major errors. But they worry about the public reaction if Biden fades toward the end of the 90-minute debate. Make no mistake: If Biden shows that he’s clearly in decline, speculation will begin immediately about replacing him on the ticket.
WHAT REPUBLICANS ARE SAYING IN PRIVATE: They’re incredulous that Trump isn’t preparing much for the debate; over-confidence could be a big risk. Like Biden, he’s not a formidable debater; Trump is weak on specifics and quick to anger.
THE ISSUES: The fact-checking will begin within minutes after the debate ends, since both candidates play fast and loose with the facts. What will be the big issues? Our guess: The Mideast and Ukrainian wars; the soaring U.S. budget deficit; tax and spending policies; the porous U.S. border; the future of democracy; abortion policies; and climate change, which clearly has not gone away as an issue.
BOTTOM LINE: Biden far exceeded expectations in his State of the Union address, and once again he could surprise people who are expecting him to stumble. Biden will remind everyone — frequently — that Trump is a convicted felon. But Trump has his reliable issues — immigration, inflation, urban crime, etc.
TO US, the issue is which candidate can win independent and moderate voters, many of whom are still undecided. So — who will scare these voters the least? That’s why Biden still has a chance: he’s slow but less scary if well-programmed. Trump will be aggressive and relentless — but could he over-play his hand?
Related: Handicapping the GOP Vice Presidential Candidates
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