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A basic maxim of economics is that you can't predict the future. If you could, you'd have the Midas touch and could pick stock winners every minute of every day. Even Warren Buffett has gone for long stretches underperforming the market. Although I can't predict, I can summarize where things now stand economically and consider scenarios based on what policies our once and future President Trump is claiming he'll implement. Geopolitics also plays a critical role here. The U.S. economic outlook will be very different if we're at war with China over Taiwan six months from now and Russia has conquered Ukraine. Hence, I discuss the geopolitical and global economic outlook as well. Finally, I discuss the global demographic outlook, which, in the long run, is all important.
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All best wishes to you and yours for the holidays and 2025!
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