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HERE WE ARE AGAIN, with Washington attempting to finish a huge budget workload in less than three weeks before the holidays. It will be an interesting December – here are some predictions:
NOT ALL OF DONALD TRUMP’S NOMINEES ARE CERTAIN of confirmation. On thin ice: Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Hegseth both face grueling hearings and tepid support from Republicans. The vast majority of the Trump nominations will sail through the Senate.
THE ECONOMY, HUMMING ALONG, is now projected by the Atlanta Fed GDP Now to grow by 3.2% this quarter. With inflation not totally defeated, how could the Fed cut rates this winter? A Trump-Powell monetary fight is lurking.
THE DEMOCRATS ARE CLOSE TO HITTING BOTTOM, as Joe Biden leaves later this winter under a hail of outrage over his outrageously sweeping pardon. The criticism has been scathing — from both parties.
YEAR-END SPECIULATION ABOUT THE DEMOCRATS will focus on Gavin Newsom, the liberal California firebrand who is clearly weighing a presidential run. Newsom is itching for a fight with GOP hard liners, and he’ll get one.
TENTATIVE PEACE TALKS ARE POSSIBLE this month between representatives of Russia and Ukraine. The latter is running out of troops, and there’s growing speculation that the Trump White House will demand — and succeed — in winning a deal that will allow Ukraine to hang on to the bulk of its country.
THE GAZA CONFLICT WON’T END IN DECEMBER; a guerrilla war will persist between Israel and its enemies. Hopes for a deal that includes Iran are far-fetched.
AS THIS YEAR COMES TO A CLOSE, two huge issues will occupy Washington: the likelihood of higher trade tariffs, and the expulsion of illegal immigrants. Is Trump bluffing? Maybe on tariffs but not on expulsions (both face fierce litigation risks).
AND WHAT WOULD DECEMBER BE LIKE WITHOUT LEAKS on next year’s policies. This winter’s leaks will focus on fiscal austerity in the new budget, with a debt ceiling fight looming next spring. The mood to spend will lose steam in this town.
Related: Is The Economy Too Strong For a December Rate Cut?
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