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We underestimate the potential of increasing attention and investment in outliers. Change and volatility are increasing which creates opportunities to pursue outliers. In contrast much of our business and society is relatively static which can limit the potential for moderate growth.
Risk is underestimated by worrying about losses more than gains, ignoring outliers, and not following intuition: Steve Jobs, co-founder of the original Apple Computer, was fired from the firm. Thomas Edison, one of the greatest inventors of all time, had 10,000 failed trials with his light bulb. Stephen Spielberg, a famed movie director, went solo after being rejected three times from the University of California. Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg, both college-dropouts, went on to, well you know what.
A major aspect of pursuing outliers is that there are numerous opportunities and tools to mitigate the risk. These are evident from analysis of emerging trends, volatility and change and anomalies. What is needed is to consider the opportunities rather than just the challenges. One of the best examples of pursuing outlier opportunities are umbrella venders who suddenly appear in busy areas when it rains. They prepare to respond to outlying weather. Similarly, stores like Home Depot, The Red Cross and Walmart have developed programs to deal with unexpected weather and other events.
The most evident way to pursue outliers is to capitalize on emerging trends. Aging is an area with great opportunity. In general, we are just developing programs to help and motivate an aging population. On one hand we need more opportunities to help retired people maintain fulfilling lives. On the other hand, we need social, mental, medical services for older individuals especially as they develop dementia.
Outlier opportunities also occur from anomalies that just occur. Women’s basketball and many women’s sports are an example. Poor facilities, limited coaching and recruiting, and weak marketing all kept women’s sports in the background. However, some spectacular women like Caitlin Clark have made the game excellent, supported, competitive and more watched on T.V. than the men’s game. Thus, the outlier opportunities today in women’s sports should become common in a few years
Don’t ignore outlying opportunities and people. Change and volatility are occurring more frequently, which provides more opportunity. Outlying opportunities can be evaluated, measured and tested to minimize risk. The values can be higher both in the short. run and long run. The status quo in a moderately growing economy can produce minimal returns and sometimes be devastating when there is dramatic change. As Sheryl Sandberg said, “what would you do if you weren’t afraid?”
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