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CALL US OLD-FASHIONED, BUT WE THINK ISSUES MATTER, and there are five of them that will have a major impact on the presidential election. These are the ones that could move the needle as the campaign heats up:
1. Abortion: The public clearly believes that Republicans have been too strident on the issue. Strict abortion bans have been rejected in the past year in the conservative states of Kansas, Alabama and Ohio, and this week nervous Republicans overturned an 1864 law that criminalized the procedure in Arizona.
Most Republicans — including former president Donald Trump and Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake — say the 1864 ruling went too far. Republicans can read the polls, which show that 59 percent of Arizona’s registered voters think abortion should be mostly or always legal. In private, Republicans say abortion could be a game-changer this fall. Advantage: Biden, clearly.
2. Immigration: We still can’t figure out why Biden didn’t have a clear plan a year ago. He apparently thought he could avoid tough choices, and then came the surge of illegal aliens — over a quarter million — that streamed into the U.S. just before last Christmas.
This is not just an issue in the Southwest; it has swamped big city mayors, who lack the resources to feed and house the immigrants. It’s highly unlikely that legislation could pass before the election; the Republicans are happy to make this a huge campaign issue. Advantage: Trump, overwhelmingly.
3. The Economy: This is usually first or second before a presidential election, and Democrats are nervous. Inflation has not been defeated; prices are still rising, perhaps not as fast as a year ago, but the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates until fall or later. We’re getting close to the period — usually in the summer — when public attitudes on the economy traditionally harden. Unless inflation plummets, this will be still another albatross for Biden. Advantage: Trump, clearly.
4. Crime: Statistics show a drop this year in urban crime, but try telling that to voters in big cities like San Francisco or Washington, where swamped police forces have re-defined what is a crime worth investigating. Simple auto thefts don’t always make the cut, as residents of Toronto will tell you. Advantage Trump, who claims he will call out the National Guard as campuses explode.
5. Geopolitics: Biden’s poll numbers on foreign policy are terrible, as young American males increasingly embrace isolationism, arguing that foreign aid should be spent on domestic issues, not far-away Ukraine.
THE DEMOCRATS’ NATIONAL CONVENTION, in Chicago from Aug. 19-22, could resemble the disastrous Chicago convention in 1968, with the Vietnam war dooming the candidacy of Democrat Hubert Humphrey. Clear advantage: Trump, as Biden desperately seeks truce talks in Gaza and Ukraine.
BOTTOM LINE: It’s still too early to make an election call, but nervous Democrats in this city are distancing themselves from Biden. He could still win — Trump sounded incoherent at campaign events yesterday, as his 78th birthday approaches.
MAYBE THIS WILL BE AN ELECTION that largely focuses on personalities, but these five issues are important, and they point to an inescapable conclusion: Biden is in trouble unless he can make the election all about abortion.
Related: Trump and the Federal Reserve — Biden and Young People
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