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WE’VE BEEN FLYING AROUND THE COUNTRY for the past month, trying to make sense of this crazy campaign. Some themes stand out; here are ten predictions:
1. THE SENATE WILL FLIP BACK to the Republicans, the easiest prediction of the fall. And the Republicans have a decent chance of keeping the House.
2. THE ELECTION WINNER may not be clear for days — or weeks — after the Nov. 5 election.
3. BOTH PARTIES ARE PREPARING to challenge the results. Recounts are certain, as are charges of fraud; this election could be litigated well into the winter.
4. THERE HAS TO BE A WINNER declared by noon on Jan. 20, and if this process drags on that long, judges will make the decision. Conservatives have a 6-to-3 majority in the Supreme Court.
5. KAMALA HARRIS is likely to win the popular vote, but her path to 270 electoral votes is difficult without — at a minimum — winning in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Is there a state to watch? Fearless forecast: a Harris upset in North Carolina, where she has moved into a tie.
6. IN THIS UNSERIOUS CAMPAIGN, dominated by debate over who’s a fascist or who looked impressive in a locker room, most major issues have been ignored. The budget deficit? Hardly a peep. Climate change? Not in the mix. Israel and Ukraine? No one wants to touch those hot buttons.
7. IF HE WINS, Donald Trump, 78, will not serve for four years; you can take that forecast to the bank. We haven’t encountered even one voter who thinks Trump will serve a full term. JD Vance needs to ramp up his game.
8. MOST PEOPLE we encountered in the past month like Harris but there’s a widespread belief that she has a load of baggage from the Biden Administration, which remains quite unpopular.
9. IF HARRIS LOSES, the post-mortem will focus on the porous border and her inability to identify her differences with Biden. How could she lose with the economy this solid? The public is convinced that the economy is terrible, on the verge of more inflation.
10. BUT THIS ELECTION ISN’T OVER YET — Harris has nearly one billion dollars to spend, she has a dominant issue — abortion — and perhaps she has the most potent weapon of all — Trump’s personal unpopularity. He specializes in insults, and that may be sufficient to win.
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