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WE WILL VIEW EVERY POLL in the next few days with a grain of salt. It could be weeks before public opinion gels — is Donald Trump the victim of a left-wing witch hunt, or is it time for him to go, as at least three more trials loom?
THE NEXT BIG DEVELOPMENT — perhaps the biggest of the entire election — will come on June 27. Joe Biden and Trump will debate that evening, and the first presidential debate of the campaign gets big ratings — about 13 million watched the first one in the 2020 race, which solidified Biden’s status as the frontrunner. Twenty million or more may watch this time.
THE FRONTRUNNER NOW IS UNCLEAR, even after yesterday’s stunning court ruling. Our guess is that Trump will do fairly well in this weekend’s polls, then gradually fade a bit as voters grapple with the concept of a convicted felon as president.
BIDEN’S CAMPAIGN HAD NEARLY STALLED in recent weeks — imagine any recent Democratic candidate groveling for black votes — or imagine a Democrat barely leading in New York state.
WE HAVE ASSERTED REPEATEDLY that Trump is a master at playing the role of martyr, and sure enough — campaign contributions from his outraged supporters were so heavy last night that his web site crashed.
WE STILL THINK TRUMP IS THE SLIGHT FAVORITE to win the election, but the debate — and a second one on Sept. 20 — will be crucial. Despite a stuttering problem, Biden may exceed low expectations; he will be extremely well-coached. The wild card will be Trump, who could be rusty on issues, since his main focus in recent weeks has been the trial.
YOU UNDERESTIMATE TRUMP AT YOUR OWN PERIL: That’s been our mantra for the past decade. Despite his enormous flaws, he leads in most battleground states, where the key issues are the economy, inflation, illegal immigrants, fentanyl and crime. And the upcoming Hunter Biden trial won’t help the president. The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East aren’t high on the public’s list of concerns.
THE ENTHUSIASM GAP: Polls show Trump has more enthusiastic supporters; they will turn out in a hurricane to vote for him on Nov. 5. Yesterday’s verdicts make his supporters even more determined to re-elect him. Biden knows he has to make the election about Trump, starting with the June 27 debate.
BIDEN’S ADVISERS ARE CONVINCED that voters will be suffering from Trump fatigue by fall, as it becomes clear that more trials and appeals will last well into 2025. Perhaps there will be Trump fatigue, but our take is that he will maintain his narrow lead for the next month — and then the June 27 debate will set the tone for the rest of the campaign.