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BARRING A SCANDAL or a poor debate performance on September 10 — neither of which we anticipate — Kamala Harris seems poised to win the presidency on November 5, most Washington insiders now believe.
THE STUNNING PERFORMANCE BY HARRIS, who has raised a half billion dollars in less than two months, is eclipsed by the equally stunning Donald Trump campaign, seemingly out of ideas and energy. He can’t even come up with a suitably nasty nickname for Harris.
IN TALKING WITH MEMBERS OF BOTH PARTIES, there’s widespread agreement that Harris has a lead of 3 to 6 points. Most importantly, she now is ahead in most of the battleground states.
BUT SOME WASHINGTON INSIDERS are reluctant to write off Trump. He still has the ability to scramble the race and is describing Joe Biden’s departure as a “coup” that was imposed on voters who never approved of Harris in the first place. If the outcome is close on November 5, he will mount a legal challenge.
TRUMP’S HARD CORE SUPPORTERS already claim that the fix is in. “They forced Biden out, it was a coup, the most successful coup in the nation’s history,” Trump said last week.
BUT HARRIS HAS SUPPORT THAT SEEMS UNSHAKABLE, greater than the tepid backing for Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden. Now Trump faces weakening support from his party — among Republicans in this town, there’s agreement that Trump’s act has gotten stale.
IT’S STILL AUGUST, OF COURSE, and there are at least two reasons to believe Harris is no shoo-in. First, her unwillingness to meet with reporters has annoyed the powerful Washington press corps, and second, her policies may be too far to the left for many centrist voters.
WE MAY NEVER KNOW why Harris didn’t pick the astronaut/war hero Mark Kelly as her running mate. Kelly is a moderate; now the ticket has two unabashed liberals, calling for more spending, tax hikes and aggressive new regulations.
WE TALKED WITH A WASHINGTON VETERAN yesterday who thinks anxiety over the softening economy could weaken Harris by November. “But she has a magnetic personality, and voters want a fresh face.”
WATCH MICHIGAN, WISCONSIN AND PENNSYLVANIA — those three states appear to be breaking against Trump, who won’t have a strong case for an appeal if he loses there. Washington is preparing for a Harris presidency, but of course Washington was preparing for a Hillary Clinton presidency that never materialized.
THE FINANCIAL MARKETS CAN LIVE WITH HARRIS, because Congress will thwart much of her legislation. Just as Washington is preparing for a Harris presidency, the consensus is that the Senate will shift back to the Republicans, with the House very much in play. Gridlock may be the theme next year.
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