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LET’S GET A HEAD START on the top ten lists — our picks for the political and economic stories to watch in 2024, with some forecasts on their outcome. Here’s our first take on the 2024 landscape:
1. U.S. politics: The story of the year — tumultuous, depressing with possibly another very close outcome that could ignite civil unrest. First, the nominations. Is there any choice other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump? Nikki Haley has some momentum, but not enough. Assuming he stays healthy, Donald Trump could wrap up the GOP nod by early spring. Joe Biden, assuming he’s healthy, could hit some speed bumps in his campaign but is the favorite to win the nomination.
2. The General Election: If the election were held today, Trump would win the presidency. But the election is almost ten months away. It’s too close to call — especially as Trump and Biden constantly go off script. Where will the moderates go? Can Biden win them back?
3. A year in the courts for Trump: This will dominate the news cycle but may not have a big impact on Trump’s polls. At the least, his campaign schedule will be complicated by trials — the civil fraud case, E. Jean Carroll’s next suit, and 91 separate indictments, some of which may stick. There’s a widespread belief in both parties that the Mar-a-Lago document case is a slam dunk, but even if found guilty, Trump could appeal and delay well into 2025.
4. Biden’s legal issues: As Lindsey Graham said yesterday, there doesn’t appear to be a smoking gun — “if there was, we’d hear about it,” he said. But Hunter Biden will generate headlines in 2024, a clear distraction for the White House, even if the evidence is skimpy.
5. The surprising U.S. economy: After a blockbuster year, the alleged experts — including the Federal Reserve — are predicting slowing growth, even though people appear to have plenty of disposable money in their pockets. The Fed, after getting this year’s GDP wrong, is predicting only 1.4% growth in 2024. We’ll see — the Atlanta Fed fourth quarter forecast has already jumped up to 2.6.% and could head higher after the explosive market rally.
6. More chaos on Capitol Hill: Some spending bills have to be completed by Jan. 19, others face a deadline of Feb. 2. Aid to Ukraine, Israel and others has stalled, with little likelihood of action until there’s a resolution of the border crisis, which arguably is the biggest issue the nation faces. For the dysfunctional House, there’s another issue — will Speaker Mike Johnson’s honeymoon crash in 2024?
7. Stalemate in Ukraine: In addition to running low on arms, Kyiv faces a morale issue as much of the West tires of spending huge sums for a war that appears to be in a stalemate. It will be a drone war this winter.
8. War Ends in the Mideast: Israel will continue its ruthless offensive until Hamas is effectively eliminated; guerrilla operations may continue, armed by Iran. The militants in Tehran are now targeting shipping in the Red Sea. Once Israel crushes Hamas, Iran will remain as a huge threat.
9. China: Reports of bold espionage and hacking by Beijing has cooled any sentiment in Washington to meaningfully improve relations. Biden can’t do much; his critics would howl if he cuts a deal with the Chinese.
10. All the rest: Regulation of AI has stalled, climate reform seems mostly aspirational, U.S.-Canada relations may fizzle until it’s clear who will win the next Canadian election, abortion may be the biggest wild card in U.S. policics, and fentanyl will continue to take an astonishing toll. Meet the new year, same as the old year.