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IT MAY TAKE A FEW DAYS to sink in, but several pendulum shifts emerged last night in the Super Tuesday primaries: many voters are fed up with Israel, suburban moderates can’t accept Donald Trump, and uber-radical San Francisco is moving toward the center.
THE HEADLINE, OF COURSE, is that Trump and Joe Biden have wrapped up the nominations, barring a health issue. The shift to the general election begins tomorrow night, when Biden needs a strong performance in his State of the Union address.
THERE’S ONLY ONE ISSUE LEFT as the primary season comes to a close: when — not whether — Nikki Haley drops out of the race, and whether she will endorse Trump. We reiterate our forecast that she will step down by the end of this week, perhaps stating simply that Trump is preferable to Biden. But an endorsement? That may not come right away.
TRUMP NEEDS HER ENDORSEMENT, because there were fresh signals last night that he’s weak among moderate voters; nearly a quarter of them say they won’t vote for him in November. And as we wrote earlier this winter, Trump trails badly in fundraising, amid concerns in the GOP that he will dip into the party coffers to pay his legal bills.
BIDEN HAS HIS OWN PROBLEMS: He faces a growing insurrection on the left, where support for Israel has fallen sharply. Biden’s aides are scrambling to get a cease fire and hostage release in place by the end of March; a failure to address this led to an alienation among voters in states like Minnesota last night.
VOLATILE VOTERS: An anti-incumbent mood persists, as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continues to attract support (perhaps on the Libertarian ballot), and as voters in San Francisco endorsed a pivot to the center. Welfare recipients must take drug tests, imagine that.
BOTTOM LINE: It’s way too early to make a final call on the November election. It’s a miracle that Biden is trailing by only 2-to-5 points in latest polls, and he has all spring and summer to draw Trump out, demanding that the former president explain his positions on the Mideast, Obamacare, deficits, etc. Trump needs to explain what he would do, but he could be distracted by court appearances that will continue through the fall and beyond.
AS THE GENERAL ELECTION PHASE BEGINS, Biden first needs a flawless performance tomorrow night in front of a huge national television audience. If he looks vigorous, with no stumbles, the race could stay tied through the summer. If Biden has an off night, his path to re-election will narrow further.
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