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WE TALKED WITH DEMOCRATS yesterday who think Kamala Harris can win the presidency (we’re not there yet) because her poll numbers show upside in three key voting groups — African-Americans, Hispanics and young people. Joe Biden’s numbers with these groups were abysmal, for a Democrat.
DEMOCRATS IN THIS TOWN are giddy, as Harris essentially won the nomination in the last 48 hours, while moving in on $100 million raised in less than a week. She’s on a roll, but elections aren’t won in July.
TRY TELLING THAT to nervous Republicans, who have concluded — in private — that this could be a very close election. They haven’t been impressed with JD Vance’s opening speeches, and they think Donald Trump can’t win by simply throwing insults at Harris.
HARRIS TRAILS BY ROUGHLY 2-3 points, but that could quickly become a tie if the Democrats stage a good show in Chicago next month. Enthusiasm is a huge factor in elections, and the Democrats are on a sugar high. Both parties now seem to be roughly equal — a major jump for the Democrats, who were morose earlier this month.
ONE REASON WHY THE DEMOCRATS are upbeat is poll results that were detailed in this morning’s Washington Post, which conclude that Harris may have time to reintroduce herself. She already leads Biden by 5 points in her approval rating.
PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANTLY, according to the Post analysis, Harris has a small lead in the so-called generic ballot, which asks voters if they favor the Democrat or the Republican. Biden has done poorly, perhaps because of age.
WHEN VOTERS are asked about Senate and House races, they favor the Democrat in 17 of 20 races. These are “standard issue” Democrats, who have been turned off by Biden. Voters in these groups have told polltakers that they would consider Harris.
THERE’S UPSIDE POTENTIAL FOR HARRIS in polls of Hispanic, African Americans and young voters, where Harris polls 4-to-5 points higher than Biden. Harris will mount a major challenge to win Black votes in North Carolina, Georgia and — possibly — in Florida, where she trails but has an outside chance, her aides say.
BOTTOM LINE: We think Harris will leave Chicago with a modest lead that will persist through Labor Day, which would be a wake-up call for investors anticipating the “Trump trade.” Then the fight will get viscous, with Trump moving into a slight lead in October. The Nov. 5 outcome is too close to call.
Related: Could Kamala Harris Win This Election?
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