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THIRD PARTY INTRIGUE: After Nikki Haley loses in South Carolina this Saturday, where will she go? She insists that she’ll stay in the race, perhaps hoping for a Donald Trump stumble — but she may have her eyes on a third party run on the “No Labels” ticket.
THE CENTRIST GROUP is looking for a candidate. Their two major options have dropped out — Larry Hogan will run for the Senate (and probably win) as a moderate Republican in Maryland, and Sen. Joe Manchin announced last week that he would not run as an independent.
THAT LEAVES HALEY, who would electrify the political world if she accepted the No Labels nomination. Some pundits are already speculating about a ticket with Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) as her running mate. Considering the public’s antipathy toward Joe Biden and Donald Trump, a Haley-Phillips ticket could burst into double digits.
BUT COULD THAT TICKET WIN THE GENERAL ELECTION? Highly unlikely, although Haley has money, is an outstanding debater and would appeal to moderate Republicans. Trump is furious with her, fearing that Haley would take more votes from the GOP. Her shots at Trump intensify daily; she now calls him “weak kneed” toward Russia and clearly is softening him up for the general election.
THE NO LABELS MOVEMENT insists that it will get a candidate on the ballot in every state, and there’s a chance that Haley would hit double digits in some of them (Ross Perot ran as an independent in 1992 and won 19% of the national total but didn’t carry a single state).
PEROT RAN LARGELY ON ONE ISSUE — reducing the budget deficit — while Haley could run on the popular themes of aiding Ukraine, Israel and other allies. Or she could run simply as a fierce Trump critic.
JOE LIEBERMAN, 81, is one of the No Labels leaders; he has stated that the movement will have its candidate within a few days of the March 5 Super Tuesday primaries. At the very least, they will ask her to run. At the very least, she will consider it. Then it will become an issue of math for her and the No Label movement.
COULD HALEY CAPTURE ONE-THIRD OF THE VOTE? Unlikely. But what if Trump is convicted of a crime and only keeps his base, and Biden suffers a catastrophic loss of young people, African Americans and Hispanics — and the age issue doesn’t go away? If Trump got approximately 30% of the vote and Biden got approzimately a 30%, with Robert F. Kennedy winning 5 or 6 percent, could Haley win the election?
CHANCES OF HALEY STAYING IN THE RACE past Memorial Day, hoping for a Trump stumble — 30 percent. Chances of Haley winning the presidency — 20 percent, still a long-shot but anything could happen in 2024.
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