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IT WAS QUITE A WEEKEND, filled with recriminations and finger-pointing. Was Joe Biden over-prepared for his debate? Did he have a cold? Should he drop out of the race? Everyone seemingly had a spin — except the major development was over-looked: President Biden quite obviously has an illness that is getting worse.
AN ASTONISHING 72 PERCENT of registered voters told the New York Times that Biden lacks the mental and cognitive health to serve as president. Yet Biden and his inner circle vowed to stay in a race that looks increasingly difficult to win.
THE WHITE HOUSE SPIN was mind-boggling, as if viewers didn’t actually see the debate. Yes, Donald Trump told falsehoods, but that misses the point — Biden was slack-jawed and confused; if that was simply a bad night, not extraordinary, that’s even more alarming.
WE THOUGHT LAST FRIDAY that Biden would have to drop out within days — his debate performance was that bad — but the Democrats have rallied around him. His family and close advisers insist that he will stay in the race, despite great anxiety within the party’s donor class.
ONE FACTOR STILL COULD FORCE BIDEN OUT: The polls, which will trickle in this week. If they confirm a 4-to-7 point surge for Trump, which seems likely, the Democrats’ anxiety could spike, as the prospect of a tidal wave grows — the House, Senate and White House could fall on Nov. 5.
BIDEN CAN’T HIDE UNTIL NOVEMBER: His aides will carefully shelter him from public appearances, and the second debate in mid-September may never occur, but Biden will have to appear occasionally.
IF BIDEN STUMBLES AGAIN, speculation will rise that Kamala Harris would replace him. The party is nervous about that, considering her terrible polls.
BOTTOM LINE: The public is ahead of Washington; ordinary voters have believed for months that Biden is too old to run; polls for him may not surge now because the public already turned against him months ago.
JUST AS MANY REPUBLICANS IN THIS CITY have reluctantly endorsed Trump, Democrats may stick with Biden — but that scenario assumes that there will be no further Biden melt-downs. We may have been wrong last Friday on the timing — Biden may hang on for a few more weeks. But we don’t think he will be on the ticket on Nov. 5, as his disease progresses daily.
Related: What if One of the Candidates Bombs Tonight?
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