Misinformation Is More Complex Than Just Lying

When we discuss misinformation, lying is the most common focus. However, there are numerous other types of misinformation. In particular wrong information, missing information, and unavailable information are key challenges that need to be addressed and possible resolutions provided.

We underestimate the importance of simply wrong information in our decision-making. Sources can change, measurements can be incorrect, and suddenly we’re faced with a bunch of errors that inhibit making accurate conclusions and better decisions.

Economic Forecasting, COVID-19 Impact and Embracing Humility

Many economists and forecasters were mostly wrong in forecasting a recession in 2023. While they understood inflation, they ignored the growth in employment, the economy, and consumer spending. Similarly, we are still adapting to the impact of COVID-19 on current analysis. The shifts from 2020 in almost everything from vaccine practices and death rates to how we consume entertainment to remote work must be considered as we’re considering decisions.

Changes in retail, wars, labor battles, politics, etc. are all causing disruptions in our understanding. And because we lack information and experience on issues like electric cars, A.I. and immigration, we’re in the dark and that makes it far more difficult to be able to make the best decisions.

Critical thinking isn’t just about spotting logical fallacies or identifying bias. It’s about fostering an attitude of intellectual humility, a willingness to admit we don’t know everything and to change our minds when presented with new evidence. It’s about creating a habit of asking, “Is this true? What’s the source? Are there alternate viewpoints?”.

Psychological Constraints in Risk Assessment

Certainty and risk both play a big role in misinformation. We need to understand the probability and value of decisions. We need to understand all the information that is available to us – background, probabilities, and parameters – which can greatly impact outcomes.

Figuring out risks, however, can sometimes be tricky, due to several psychological constraints:

1. People tend to take more risks to win back losses and less risks to follow up on winnings.
2. Marketers love to push our pain points and focus on our fears.
3. We overestimate our skills and luck, as shown in the betting industries, where huge profits are made based on countless people believing that they can beat the odds.

Navigating Bias from Statistical to Social Influences

Bias is one of the greatest complications when it comes to making accurate decisions. Professionals usually focus on statistical problems, but things like demographics, measurement, and timing matter as much, if not more. Remember, your data is only as good as your worst input.

But I think social bias – our preconceived ideas about things – is more misleading than statistical bias. Culture and the environment also factor into bias, affecting how we see things. For instance, in presentations, I’ve learned that having food available to the attendees is a hit. I’ve also learned to never be the last speaker. Past experiences and what we want to see can also cloud our judgment more than future expectations.

Misinformation in Setting Parameters, Taboo Topics and Cause-Effect Confusions

Misinformation also messes with understanding our decision parameters. We tend to see decisions as win-lose but flipping that to a “win-win” mindset can be a game-changer. We often miss out on opportunities because we underestimate the chances of everyone coming out on top.

Misinformation is prevalent in topics we tend to avoid discussing – things like religion, sex and I.Q. Santa Claus is one of the only exceptions where it seems proper to include misinformation.

Cause and effect are frequently misused in reaching decisions as well. Figuring out what really causes what, citing wrong connections, and mixing up relationships with causes – those are all common errors.

Trusting Intuition and Debunking “Bubbbe Meise”

Sometimes you must ignore some of the information and just listen to your gut. In Yiddish, there is the word “bubbbe meise” which basically translates to “old wise tales”. This would include things like chicken soup being a cold cure, or the 5 second rule where it’s safe to eat something that’s fallen on the ground if it hasn’t been there for more than 5 seconds, knocking on wood for luck, and numerous unproven folklore we follow.

My favorite is the 60-40 investment rule which has been wrong for over 10 years. We tend to overthink things or we let fear stop us from taking risks, but there is no gain without trying and no reward without risk. If your intuition is telling you something, it’s usually worth listening.

Measurement Challenges: From Gym Scales to Performance Metrics

Measurement is a clear issue in misinformation. For instance, my scale at the gym had me excited because it showed I’d lost 10 pounds over a few months. However, when I went to the doctor, that scale showed only 4 pounds lost.

So how do we improve goal setting and measurement? The first step is to think about it and consider more details and considerations. Long-term versus short-term, quantitative versus qualitative, risk and caution, objective versus subjective all need to be considered in setting goals. We also need to consider the process and complexity of measurement. For example, do you want specific, general or directional results?

Measurement has become similarly complex. How important are results, speed, motivation, innovation, and quality in measuring performance?

For example, I believe automation has improved the speed and efficiency of many customer service processes. However, customer service and satisfaction are frequently sacrificed for that automation. How many times have we been completely frustrated with ineffective electronic customer service efforts?

Promoting Social Responsibility in Fact-Checking

How do we nurture the social responsibility of fact-checking? First, let’s normalize it. Make fact-checking a routine part of how we interact with information. From the news articles we read to the social media posts we share; each piece of information should go through a fact-checking filter.

Similarly, the bandwagon effect can propel us to jump on board with popular yet baseless narratives. Understanding these psychological tendencies is key to unravelling why misinformation can sometimes be so tricky.

Let’s remember that misinformation isn’t just a problem of the information era; it’s a human problem, rooted in our cognition and emotions. By acknowledging this, we can begin to address misinformation in a more holistic way, weaving psychological insights into our strategies to counter false narratives.

Let’s strive to understand not just the ‘what’ of misinformation, but also the ‘why’. After all, knowing our adversary is half the battle won. And in this fight against misinformation, a solid understanding of the human psyche is a weapon we cannot afford to neglect.

Related: The Crucial Role of Parameters in Decision-Making and Action-Taking