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WITH A NATO SUMMIT about to begin in Washington, and Democrats defecting daily away from Joe Biden, this promises to be a memorable week. Voters in France, Iran and England already have revolted, and now the President of the United States is on very thin ice.
THE MOMENTUM IS AGAINST JOE BIDEN: Democrats we talked with this weekend fear a tidal wave against them in November; the House, Senate, governorships and the White House itself could fall to the Republicans, who begin their convention a week from today. They are solidly united behind Donald Trump, who has been quiet in the past week as Democrats consider a radical move.
BIDEN’S PROSPECTS SLIPPED OVER THE WEEKEND, after he told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on Friday that if Trump won the election, it wouldn’t be a result of a lack of effort from Biden. That seemed self-serving by most Democrats, who think Biden is tone-deaf, relying on advice from the disgraced Hunter Biden, a frequent guest at the White House.
OUR BOTTOM LINE HASN’T CHANGED: We don’t think Biden will be on the ballot in November, but this is a very close call and would require a process that will take time. Any Biden stumble at the NATO summit, or before the Democrats’ convention in mid-August, would further diminish his chances.
AS OF THIS MORNING, there are about a dozen Democrats (out of 213 in the House) who are calling for Biden to step down, well below the number Biden’s opponents need.
THE PROCESS OF OUSTING HIM would require calls from party leaders like Chuck Schumer or Nancy Pelosi, or a persistent focus on his health, including the confusing White House narrative on whether he had medical attention after his disastrous debate. Ousting him also would require plunging polls, but Biden’s numbers have held up surprisingly well.
RISING ABOVE THE CHAOS is Kamala Harris, who has pledged loyalty to Biden and has become a major force in the party. Many Washington insiders are now anticipating a Trump-Harris contest but we reiterate — this will be a process, and Biden will not leave quickly. As for Harris as the nominee, it remains to be seen whether that would be a blessing or a curse for the reeling Democrats.
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