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RARELY HAVE WE SEEN such a groundswell of support in both parties — there’s a growing consensus that immigration reform is urgently needed. And it’s not an exaggeration to conclude that this issue has the potential to deny President Biden a second term.
BIDEN IS HEARING THIS from nervous Democrats, especially big city mayors who cannot cope with the surge of immigrants, and he’s hearing it from his foreign policy team, which worries that legislation providing new funding for Ukraine and Israel has stalled, as Republicans refuse to pass any legislation unless immigration is resolved first.
REPUBLICANS HAVE THE UPPER HAND: New House Speaker Mike Johnson has the support and trust that Kevin McCarthy never had, and Johnson is going to spend his political capital on immigration.
IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER MONTH, but a bill will pass. Democrats will have to agree to curb asylum, send illegal immigrants back home, purge the workforce of undocumented aliens, end protection for immigrant children, and — a bitter pill for Democrats — they will have to spend more on finishing a wall on the Texas-Mexico border.
IN ANOTHER BITTER PILL for Democrats, a compromise bill probably will not address any path toward citizenship for illegal immigrants.
SUCH A DRACONIAN BILL became more likely just ahead of Christmas, when 10,000 illegal immigrants per day streamed into the U.S. Final data will show that nearly 2 million immigrants entered the U.S. illegally in 2023.
THIS HAS BEEN A DISASTER FOR THE BIDEN WHITE HOUSE: Most of the Democrats we talk with are angry that Biden had no apparent plan as immigration soared. Pleas from big city mayors were ignored; they’re broke, without funds to house and feed the immigrants.
THIS HAS PROMPTED REPUBLICANS to launch impeachment proceedings against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas over his handling of the border, which would make him the first Cabinet official to be impeached since 1876. But this is a publicity stunt — there aren’t enough votes in the Senate to convict Mayorkas.
JOHNSON WILL ENCOURAGE IMPEACHMENT later this month, but his real weapon is the threat of a government shutdown if spending targets aren’t set on Jan. 19 and Feb. 2. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer usually wins shutdown battles, but the public demands a solution to this catastrophe at the border.
SCHUMER IS PREPARED TO COMPROMISE, but this will take time. Democrats will have to accept harsh immigration provisions, infuriating the left. This is the price Biden will have to pay for not having a plan on immigration, and if there’s no resolution by the end of this winter, his re-election prospects will continue to slide.
Related: One Serious Legal Crisis, One Serious Budget Crisis as Congress Returns
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