Trending
A SCENARIO THAT ELEVATES KAMALA HARRIS to the U.S. presidency is increasingly plausible. Here’s what many Washington insiders are talking about.
FIRST, JOE BIDEN HAS TO KEEP HARRIS as his running mate. She’s widely considered a disappointment, but her visibility within the administration is rising and there’s very little chance Biden would drop her; party leaders are well aware that the Democrats’ prospects depend on support from women and African-Americans, so firing Harris would make little sense.
WE’RE ASSUMING THAT BIDEN will announce his candidacy later this spring, despite persistent concerns among Democrats who think he’s too old for another term. Biden, as everyone knows, would be 86 years old at the end of a second term.
WE MAKE BIDEN THE EARLY FAVORITE to beat Donald Trump in the general election, although an avalanche of indictments could jeopardize Trump’s prospects to win the GOP nomination. Incredibly, he’s on a roll now, the frontrunner to win the GOP nomination, but the general election is another story entirely.
A MAJOR REASON WHY WE THINK A DEMOCRAT WILL WIN IN 2024 was on display this week in the enormously important Wisconsin election to pick a new Chief Justice of the state’s Supreme Court. The Democrat won easily in an election that was all about abortion — a huge albatross for the Republicans, who are widely viewed as too radical on the issue, which hurt them badly in the 2022 election and could hurt them badly again.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING: As usual, the economy will be a dominant issue in the next election, and we suspect that a recession later this year could be subsiding by next spring, with inflation falling to the 2% to 4% range. Signs pf a recovery could come just in time for Biden.
IF BIDEN IS INAUGURATED ON JAN. 20, 2025, speculation would intensify about whether he would serve for the entire term. As he approaches his mid-80s, there will be an intense focus on Biden’s mental acuity and his shaky gait. To be blunt, we think it’s highly unlikely that Biden would serve for an entire second term.
THAT WOULD ELEVATE HARRIS TO THE PRESIDENCY: Whether she could win a term of her own in 2028 is way too early to handicap. But as the sitting president, she obviously would be in the 2028 mix.
WE OFTEN WONDER — WHO WOULD WANT THIS JOB? Harris would face a growing Social Security and Medicare crisis, enormous geopolitical issues, and the image of her home state as lawless and violent. A horrific murder this week in San Francisco shines light on a state that seemingly is out of control.
FOR DEMOCRATS IN THIS TOWN, THE GOAL in 2024 is to add seats in Congress and, primarily, keep the White House for another four years. One Democrat told us earlier this week that the party would relish a re-match with Trump, and would gladly accept a Harris ascension to the presidency at some point in Biden’s second term.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT TRUMP, adroitly playing the martyr, has a 20-point lead (at least) for the Republican nomination, yet he seems to have a ceiling among all voters of about 45%, not enough to win a general election. But to all the Democrats who are itching for another race against Trump, we cite the old cliché — be careful what you wish for.
Related: Why Russia Is Still Losing the Ukraine War
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.