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Written by: Michael Ryan Gold CFP®, MBA, CEPA® | Founder & CEO Family Wealth & Business Advisor Gold Family Wealth
The past few weeks we have experienced significant market volatility and turbulence coming after two very strong years of growth- sparked by the tariffs the current administration has been ushering in. To say the least, the uncertainty about prices companies and consumers may have to bear in the future have sent the markets down sharply in recent days. After a challenging week last week, working Sunday night it was clear that based on futures, which at that time were deep in the red — down nearly 4%, led me to believe that Monday could continue the volatile market environment and perhaps mark the worst three-day market decline since World War II, outside of 1987.
Let that sink in.
It seemed it was a good time to provide some context for you to have a good sense of what is going on and how best to navigate the current landscape.
First off, breathe – I know how this feels. I’ve been hearing it nonstop:
“Should I get out?” “Should I wait for things to settle down?” “Is this it?”
My answer is simple: Let’s zoom out.
Over the past 40 years, we’ve endured five bear markets, a multitude of corrections, and countless storms — dot-com implosions, financial crises, pandemics, geopolitical upheaval. And in every case, big and small the phrase, “This time its different” was uttered – this is said to be the four most dangerous words investors say. SO lets explore this:
What’s different today? The policy backdrop.
A Perfect Storm of Volatility — With No Cavalry (Yet)
Historically, downturns have been met with swift responses: stimulus, rate cuts, rescue packages. Today, we’re navigating without those familiar lifelines.
- The administration remains unmoved on trade deficits and tariffs. On April 2, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on nearly all imports — 10% baseline, 52% on China, 20% on the EU. It’s being called “Liberation Day,” but for investors, it feels more like lockdown.
- China responded with 34% retaliatory tariffs. The EU and Canada aren’t far behind.
- Congress could act but hasn’t. The Fed? Handcuffed by inflation.
Markets responded as you’d expect- the S&P 500 dropped 4.8% in a single day, its biggest one-day fall since 2020. The Nasdaq, Dow, and Bitcoin all followed. Tech giants and financials took some of the hardest hits.
There’s fear of recession, inflation, and stagnation all at once. Yale’s Budget Lab projects these tariffs could cost U.S. households $3,800 annually and shave real GDP growth.
So yes, the headlines are unsettling. But history and data offer another view.
Emotional Investing: A Recipe for Regret
Markets fall. Investors react. Sometimes they overreact.
Behavioral finance teaches us that loss aversion and recency bias often sabotage our best intentions.
We fear losses more than we value gains. We overemphasize the last bad thing that happened and assume it’s the new normal.
That’s why many people sold at the bottom in 2002 with record levels of equities sold to cash, again in 2008, and more recently during 2020 covid crisis – only to watch the market double, triple, or recover within months or years.
I have always said you can have the most astute and sophisticated portfolio aligned with your long term financial plan, yet the biggest threat to even these strategies and our wealth isn’t markets, tariffs, who is in office, wars, inflation, deflation etc. — it’s our behavior.
Benjamin Graham- Warren Buffets professor at Colombia and author of the Intelligent Investor discussed the Margin of Safety
Warren Buffett said, “Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
Benjamin Graham, gave us the metaphor of Mr. Market — your irrational business partner who swings from euphoria to despair. Your job? Don’t mimic him. Exploit him.
Graham’s “margin of safety” principle teaches us to build in buffers for when times get tough. At Gold Family Wealth, that’s not just theory — it’s practice. It’s how we build portfolios well diversified and aligned with our client’s bespoke wealth plans.
Two and a Half Decades of Perspective
I’ve been in this business for twenty-five years. I’ve studied markets from their origins, diving deep into every boom, bust, bubble, recession, depression, and euphoric melt-up. I’ve analyzed not only the numbers but the human behavior behind them; our cognitive biases, our herd instincts, our deepest financial fears.
And I remember exactly when this journey began.
I was 21 years old when the tech bubble burst. The Nasdaq dropped from 5000 to 1000. People were panicking. And I heard this quote from Sir John Templeton:
“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different.’”
That quote hit me. Hard.
Because I’ve seen people utter those words during every single crisis since. “Yes, but this time it’s different because…” they say. And you know what? They’re not wrong. The cause is different each time.
- The crash of ’87? Different.
- The Cuban Missile Crisis? Different.
- The oil embargo and hyperinflation of the ‘70s? Different.
- The Savings and Loan crisis? Different.
- 9/11? Deeply, horrifyingly Different.
- The financial crisis? A moral reckoning on Wall Street. Different.
- COVID? A once-in-a-century pandemic. Different.
But here’s what I find most fascinating: despite the uniqueness of each crisis, the outcome has always been the same.
Every correction. Every bear market. Every single downturn since the tulip bubble craze of the 1600s has ultimately ended. And what came next?
A new bull market. A new high. A new wave of innovation and growth.
Following every 10% drop in the S&P 500 since 1950, the market has been higher 100% of the time one year later. That’s not a belief. That’s history.
- In 2002, markets fell 49%. Then doubled 2007.
- In 2009, after a 56% plunge, the market ran up 400% by 2020.
- COVID knocked us down 34% in March 2020. Full recovery came within months.
Even without immediate policy help, markets recover. Because progress doesn’t pause forever.
Inflation Isn’t New
The 1970s gave us oil shocks, inflation, and global tension. Yet investors who stayed invested were rewarded.
Today, Boomers are still spending. Gen X is in peak earning years. Millennials — 72 million strong — are powering the economy into their prime.
Demand is real. Innovation continues. And while the Fed may not swoop in immediately, the foundation for recovery remains.
The issue is hindsight is 20/20, I lived and built my business advising hundreds of business owners and families through all of these, and mark my words, the fear and uncertainty was the same as it is right now and I am hearing “this time it’s different” again.
Quite frankly, even though we can rationally understand history and everything I wrote above, we wouldn’t be human if events like this or any of the past didn’t give us pause. But it’s also not so different – let me explain.
While the causation of every downturn is different, the pattern of recovery is the same.
And since we spent so much time discussing the four most dangerous words in investing, “this time it’s different”, it’s only fitting to close with what I believe are the four most powerful words in investing — and in life: “This too shall pass.”
When times are good, this too shall pass. When times are hard, this too shall pass. When you’re uncertain, afraid, sick, or celebrating — this too shall pass.
It’s a phrase that has grounded me personally and professionally. Because when we truly internalize the impermanence of everything — the highs, the lows, the noise — we realize that what actually matters is our behavior. Our mindset. Our response.
Where you and I are in life today is the sum total of every choice we’ve ever made. Every decision, every action, every moment of discipline or distraction has brought us here.
So, what should you do?
Focus on what you can control. Stay disciplined. And remember: the storm will pass — it always does.
And if you have questions, concerns, or just want to talk about how this all relates to your plan — call us. That’s what we’re here for.
We’ve been through this before. We’ll get through it again.
Stay Strong
Related: Markets Rattle as Investors Flee to Cash Amid Trump’s Tariff Standoff