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IT’S TIME TO TAKE AN EARLY LOOK at a second term Donald Trump agenda, as he sails toward the GOP nomination and is running neck-and-neck with Joe Biden for the presidency.
TRUMP HAS RAISED THE ISSUE of his second term agenda — especially on social issues — in recent days amid charges on the left that he would be a dictator. At the least, Trump would pursue a hard right agenda, with a focus on vengeance against his many political enemies. In the first few days of a new Trump administration, “we’re closing the border, and we’re drilling, drilling, drilling,” he declared last week.
In other recent speeches, Trump has hit all the right buttons for his supporters, promising mass deportation, firings of federal workers and “an obliteration of the deep state.” Would he be a dictator? “Maybe on Day One,” he said this week.
IN A BID TO SECURE the U.S.-Mexico border, Trump says he will move thousands of troops currently stationed overseas and shift federal agents, including those at the Drug Enforcement Administration and FBI, to immigration enforcement. He also wants to build more of the border wall.
BUT ON ECONOMIC ISSUES, Trump has said little other than calling for new tariffs. We think he will resist major spending cuts, leaving that issue to Republicans in Congress (the Senate is likely to flip back to the Republicans). Trump has never seemed to care about deficits; one of his top economic advisers, Larry Kudlow, has argued for decades that “deficits don’t matter.”
THE BIGGEST ECONOMIC ISSUE in a second Trump administration would be a fierce debate on extending the Trump tax cuts. Not only do we think they will be retained — they may be increased. Again, deficits won’t matter. This and other issues will put Trump on a collision course with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who Trump will attempt to fire if he wins re-election. Trump wants someone far more accommodative.
ONE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN A NEW TRUMP ADMINISTRATION MIGHT BE ON DEFENSE SPENDING: Trump’s antipathy toward the Pentagon is well known — and at the least, he may insist that Western Europe and Canada should pay more for the war in Ukraine. This is quite an irony — the liberal Biden would be more supportive of defense spending while the conservative Trump would not be a strong supporter of the Pentagon.
NOT SURPRISINGLY. Trump says he will institute a system of tariffs of perhaps 10% on most foreign goods. Penalties would increase if trade partners manipulate their currencies or engage in other unfair trading practices, he vows.
TRUMP STATED EARLIER THIS FALL THAT he will urge Congress to pass a “Trump Reciprocal Trade Act,” giving the president authority to impose a reciprocal tariff on any country that imposes one on the U.S. Much of the agenda focuses on China. Trump has proposed a four-year plan to phase out Chinese imports of essential goods, including electronics, steel and pharmaceuticals.
A VERY HARD LINE ON CHINA: Trump wants to ban Chinese companies from owning vital U.S. infrastructure in sectors such as energy, technology and agriculture, and says he will force Chinese owners to sell any holdings “that jeopardize America’s national security.”
DESPITE SOFT ENERGY PRICES, Trump sticks to the mantra of “DRILL, BABY, DRILL,” and he says he would ramp up oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas, and coal producers. He would roll back Biden administration efforts to encourage the adoption of electric cars and he would reverse proposed new pollution limits that would require at least 54% of new vehicles sold in the U.S. to be electric 2030.
DESPITE A LAISSEZ FAIRE REGULATORY POLICY, a Trump Administration would take an activist stance in some areas, including closing the U.S. border with Mexico and overturning the Keystone Pipeline decision. Illegal immigration remains a crucial issue, as the Senate bogs down on a bill to aid Ukraine unless the measure includes asylum reforms.
MUCH OF WHAT’S KNOWN ABOUT THE TRUMP AGENDA focuses on social issues, many of which mirror proposals enacted by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Any law enforcement agency that receives grants from the Justice Department would be required to implement policing measures such as stop-and-frisk.
ANOTHER PRIORITY WOULD BE DECLARING that any hospital or healthcare provider that approves medical interventions for young transgender people will “no longer meet federal health and safety standards for Medicaid and Medicare.” Another Trump initiative would take funds from private-university endowments to create a government-backed “American Academy” that would provide free online courses and allow people to achieve the equivalent of a bachelor’s degree.
BOTTOM LINE: Many of Trump’s proposals may be too radical for voters, and the Republicans have clearly over-played their hand on abortion. But Trump knows that his base wants to crack down on illegal immigration, urban crime, high taxes, etc. We have to closely monitor Trump’s agenda, because he has a plausible chance of winning re-election.
Related: An Ominous Signal from the U.S. on War Funding
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