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WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE that geopolitics will be a major wild card this year, as U.S. foreign policy friction increases between Washington and traditional allies, including France and Mexico.
FRENCH PRESIDENT EMMANUEL MACRON has stirred a hornet’s nest in Washington with his comments last week that Europe shouldn’t get involved in any support for Taiwan. Macron has long sought to carve out European policies that differ from Washington’s, and now he has a cause — neutrality on Taiwan.
THIS HAS CREATED AN UPROAR among U.S. Republicans, who view Macron’s statements last week as a sign of appeasement in dealing with Beijing. He declared that the “worst thing” that Europe could do would be to “take our cue from the U.S. agenda” geared to defending Taiwan. This surely will send a signal to Beijing that there’s division among the Allies.
STILL ANOTHER CRISIS MAY BE LOOMING WITH MEXICO, as U.S. politicians desperately seek a way to curb fentanyl abuse, which is killing over 70,000 Americans per year. Several conservatives are advocating military action against Mexican drug producers, who would be declared “terrorists,” theoretically leading to a U.S. invasion.
THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED by the Biden Administration, but virtually every Republican running for the White House — including Donald Trump — is expected to call for military interevention to smash the drug cartels.
NEW FRICTION WITH FRANCE AND MEXICO comes as the U.S. intelligence community has been rocked by shocking new leaks that that — if true — will damage U.S. relations with allies.
A FRANTIC SEARCH FOR THE LEAKERS won’t reverse the damage to U.S. allies — South Korea, Israel, even Ukraine — which have to worry that the U.S. has deeply imbedded spies in their countries. Ukraine’s plans for a spring offensive may have been damaged by reports that its air force is running out of gas.
THESE LEAKS HIGHLIGHT a severe shortage of air defense weapons that could cost Ukraine the war. This has prompted a dramatic speed-up of an additional $2.6 billion in U.S. shipments of defense systems and other weapons, including ammunition for the Patriot and High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, and new air surveillance radars, antiaircraft ammunition and Grad rockets.
THE LEAKS SEND A SIGNAL to Russia that Ukraine is running out of supplies. And if true, the leaks send a signal that the war has essentially become a stalemate, hardly the sign that Ukraine needs as the war reaches a turning point.
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