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Written by: George Prior
China will be a more attractive investment destination for global investors in 2024 despite the economic warning signs, predicts the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.
The bullish predictions from Nigel Green of deVere Group come as Beijing on Thursday confirmed additional financial support for China’s beleaguered property market and developers, including hard-hit Country Garden.
Shenzhen, China’s main industrial hub, has also unveiled new homebuying measures to further support the critical market.
It also comes as Reuters exclusively reports that government advisors are to recommend 2024 growth targets of 4.5-5.5%.
The deVere CEO says: “The marked slowdown of the world’s second-largest economy, home to 1.4 billion people, has been a huge international narrative for the last two years.
“China’s share of the global economy has dropped by 1.4% in this period – the largest drop since the 1960s.
“This matters for not only China but the rest of the world as it’s the largest trading partner of 140 countries and regions globally.”
Much of the focus has been on the downturn of the country’s property market, which makes up a considerable proportion of the economy, and the demographic and unemployment challenges that the economy faces.
But the economic red flags are beginning to flash less brightly say some experts and this will not go unnoticed by global investors.
“The property sector’s drag on China GDP has shrunk from 4% in 2022 to currently less than 2%,” says Nigel Green.
“In addition, Beijing’s further support of the market announced on Thursday shows it is committed to contributing to stability, boosting liquidity, preventing systemic risks, and avoiding contagion.
“Against this backdrop of the government’s increasingly proactive policies, such as stimulus measures and targeted reforms, it is likely that China will again become a more attractive destination for global investors.”
There are other ‘pull factors’ involved too which are expected to be zoomed in upon next year.
“Investors, including multinationals, have shunned the world’s second-largest economy in the last couple of years, but this could change again as the fundamentals come back into focus,” notes the deVere CEO.
“China is transitioning from an export economy to a consumption one that, ultimately, will be more sustainable. Indeed, the country’s burgeoning middle class could create the largest consumption market in the world in the next decade.
“As China moves up the value chain, it is directly acquiring more and more foreign brands, market networks and technologies that will further strengthen its position for global investors.”
He continues: “There’s still enormous potential for infrastructure growth, as its urbanization strategy is still in its infancy and the scope is massive.
“Plus, the reform of state-owned companies could blow apart monopolies and create major investment opportunities.”
The deVere Group chief executive also stresses that China is the world leader in sectors of “the fourth industrial revolution, including clean energy, electric vehicles and industrial robots.”
The Chinese government’s debt could also be noted as a positive. China’s debt to GDP ratio is about 110%, compared to the Japanese and US governments which are around 260% and 120%, respectively.
“China continues to face serious challenges, but the economic woes are starting to look less stark than they have over the last two years as Beijing appears to be becoming increasingly proactive on the essential property sector.
“This is likely to draw the attention of investors in 2024,” concludes Nigel Green.
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