Trending
UKRAINE AND OTHER U.S. ALLIES are facing an ominous signal from Washington, as money for the war runs low and Congress stalls on more funding. And there are signs of a new front in the Middle East war, as tensions rise in the Red Sea.
THE FIRST PRIORITY IS GETTING MOVEMENT on legislation to provide $61 billion to Ukraine. That bill may get a procedural vote tomorrow in the Senate, but as of now there isn’t sufficient support, because lawmakers want to add provisions to curb illegal immigration along the U.S.-Texas border.
SENATE MAJORITY LEADER CHUCK SCHUMER wants a Ukraine vote this week. Even if he fails, which is likely, it would send a signal that a crisis looms. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will brief Senators in private today, pleading for more funding.
EVEN IF THE SENATE passes an aid bill by late this week, final approval in the House isn’t imminent. House speaker Mike Johnson insists on immigration and asylum reform, and time is running out for a comprehensive bill this year.
ADJOURNMENT IS SCHEDULED FOR NEXT FRIDAY, Dec. 15, although that target could slip. Our bottom line is that funding for Ukraine and Israel is likely to pass but perhaps not until early January, sending a signal to U.S. allies and adversaries that an anti-spending mood — combined with growing isolationism — is gaining momentum in Congress, which is what Vladimir Putin has been hoping for all along.
THE WHITE HOUSE warned congressional leaders on Monday that the U.S. would run out of money to send weapons to Ukraine by year’s end, although some experts think Ukraine will have enough money and weapons to stagger through the winter.
GRIM ASSESSMENT: “Cutting off the flow of U.S. weapons and equipment will kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield, not only putting at risk the gains Ukraine has made, but increasing the likelihood of Russian military victories,” a White House spokeswoman said yesterday.
THIS STALEMATE ON UKRAINE COMES AS TENSIONS RISE IN THE RED SEA: —
FRESH AGGRESSION IN THE RED SEA from Iranian surrogates are a most unwelcome development, as another front in the Mideast threatens to widen the Israeli-Hamas war. After drone strikes on ships in the Red Sea, defense experts said there was no doubt that Iran was behind the attacks. There were several distress calls as missiles and drones hit three separate commercial vessels.
THE U.S. DID NOT APPEAR TO HIT BACK, prompting grumbling from defense hawks in Washington. The last thing that Joe Biden’s administration needs is an overt conflict between Israel and Iran, with U.S. air strikes.
IRAN, THE VILLIAN: There’s no question that Iran has funded Hamas and Hezbollah, and there’s a strong belief in the U.S. intelligence community that Tehran is close to producing a crude nuclear bomb. Washington hawks, headed by John Bolton, want “regime change” in Iran but that seems unlikely.
Related: The GDP Surprise of the Year
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.