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Written by: Stephanie Aliaga
The dominance of Big Tech in digital services has enabled them to scale and grow in unprecedented ways, but has also raised concerns about their expanding power. As the world becomes increasingly reliant on a handful of tech giants and AI technology advances rapidly, governments worldwide are intensifying regulatory efforts.
Google commands 89% of the global search engine market, Apple holds 51% of the U.S. mobile phone and tablet market, Microsoft powers 62% of desktop operating systems and Facebook and Instagram together capture 57% of the social media market. With this stronghold, Big Tech wields significant influence in setting industry standards, shaping consumer behaviors and influencing public discourse.
In response, various proposals have been put forward, including antitrust actions, stricter data protection laws and increased transparency requirements. The U.S. Department of Justice's recent antitrust case against Google marks a historic move against tech monopolies. After a landmark court ruling found the company monopolized the search market, the case could potentially require Google to divest parts of its business. Regulators have also scrutinized companies like Apple and Nvidia, while foreign governments are taking aim over U.S. dominance in digital markets.
The incoming Trump 2.0 administration will play a key role in shaping tech regulation. While uncertainty remains, early indications suggest:
- AI Innovation over Regulation: Trump’s approach will likely be shaped by figures like Elon Musk, who emphasize the need for a freer environment for AI development that enables the U.S. to maintain its competitive edge. This likely involves undoing President Biden’s executive order on AI in favor of a more hands-off approach to regulation.
- Evolving Antitrust Focus: The scrutiny on Big Tech’s market dominance will persist, but focus may shift towards issues like free speech and competitiveness rather than wholesale breakups of tech companies. FTC Commissioner Lina Khan will likely be replaced by someone with a less interventionist approach, slowing the pace of actions taken against Big Tech firms.
- Semiconductor Independence from China: Trump could expand the semiconductor export restrictions introduced during the Biden administration and increase incentives for domestic chip manufacturing.
- Loosening Cryptocurrency Guardrails: A friendlier stance on blockchain and digital currencies could reduce SEC enforcement and reshape the regulatory framework for digital assets. These efforts could attract investment and spur advancements, encouraging blockchain applications in various sectors.
For investors, the takeaways are clear: the regulatory landscape for Big Tech is set for change, but the potential challenges from antitrust enforcement and AI regulation may be less severe under Trump. Focus on semiconductor independence, tech advancement and U.S. exceptionalism could create new winners and losers, but these changes will be highly sensitive to policy developments and enforcement. As tech developments evolve, investors should remain vigilant to capitalize on emerging trends while mitigating concentration risks to those companies most scrutinized.
Dominance of U.S. tech firms across digital markets will invite continued scrutiny
% share of respective market
Source: Statcounter Global Stats, Statista, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All data is from Statcounter and is as of October 2024 except for e-commerce, which is as of 2023 from Statista. Note that social media market share for Facebook includes Instagram.