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The key take away from all the jobs data released this week is this: Hiring remains muted, but there may be hope.
There are puts and takes in the data, but taken together, there is evidence that the cooling labor market could begin to show signs of life in the year ahead.
Further supporting this is solid economic activity, with Q4 GDP expected to top 3%, coupled with increased certainty about tax policy supports this idea.
Glimmers of an improving job market were seen in:
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More people quitting -- the quit rate jumped to 2.1% in the latest JOLTs report.
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The number of firms saying they plan to hire more in the future continues to rise.
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Sectors that had previously stalled hiring are hiring again:
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finance, professional and business services (engineers, consultants, administrative and support roles), transportation equipment manufacturing.
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Employment services (recruiters) are ramping up their employee base.
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Job openings for technology are on the rise, suggesting hiring may pick up there.
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Aggregate real wage growth was likely close to 1.5% for the fourth month in a row.
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Entry level and skilled jobs are seeing "robust" earnings growth (according to the Beige Book).
However, some caution remains:
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Unemployment is ticking up as participation falls.
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Over 1 million full-time jobs have disappeared in the past 12 months.
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Over 1 million part-time jobs have been created in the past 12 months.
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Many business are still cautious in their optimism about any pickup in hiring activity (according to the Beige Book).
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Hiring remains very weak - a hiring rate of 3.3% is similar to what we experienced when the unemployment rate was twice as high as the current 4.2% rate.
I am optimistic but realize we are not out of the woods yet.
This is also why the odds of a Fed rate cut in December increased with today's jobs report.
Don't hesitate to reach out if you have any questions.
Related: New Home Sales and Prices Signal Need for Another Rate Cut