Trending
Maybe.
The turning point may be less about more hiring and more about the type of hiring.
A post-election hiring pop from sectors previously stalled continued for a 2nd month:
- Finance +13k
- Professional and business services (engineers, consultants, administrative and support roles) +28k
Plus, the hiring stalwarts remained:
- Healthcare (+69.5k) and government (+33k)
December even finally saw a tick up in quits. (to highest level since 2022 - though still low by historic standards).
That's encouraging for the economy, but…
Some other changes in the job market are less upbeat. On the surface…
The number of multiple job holders remains above late 1996 levels, when moonlighting was all the rage.
Over 1 million full-time jobs have disappeared in the past 13 months.
Over 1 million part-time jobs have been created in the past 13 months.
Perhaps there is a different narrative to consider:
- Maybe this is evidence the way we work is changing.
- Maybe it means people are making ends meet in a new way?
Afterall
- Retail sales continue in an uptrend.
- Consumer spending remains elevated.
- Consumer credit is declining.
A new way of work may just be the inflection the economy needs.
Related: Money Supply, Deficits, and QE: Do They Really Drive Inflation?