Is the Worst of September Behind Us?

So I, I think you're just being the good sport that you usually are. Bob, any, any big Bob breaking news we need to know about?

[00:00:31] Bob Lang: No, but as a big sports fan here, we did have the start of football season over the weekend. And that's always a very interesting Weekend to watch sports, you know, of course, we have some other sports coming up soon, basketball and hockey.

So it's just going to be a cornucopia of

[00:00:47] Chris Versace: Most people tend to think of cornucopia and Thanksgiving, but we have a long way to go before we get there. Just really want to quickly ask you guys, because last week was a very difficult week for the market, S& P down over 4%, Nasdaq down almost 6%.

We are in September, you know, arguably one of the worst months that the market seems to have year in year out. Real quick, Lindsey, yes or no, is September so far living up to its reputation?

[00:01:13] Lindsey Bell: Yeah, it sure is. I mean, it's it's exceeding to the downside. It's expectation. So usually September is the worst month of the year.

But in election year in the election cycle, the 4th year, right before the new the election. It's also negative, but less negative than the than the average. In all other years, so I think we're on track for a down year. I just think it means more choppiness coming. I know Bob is going to tell you that the VIX is elevated again 1920 level.

And we're 8 weeks out from the election. So, I, I don't see any, uh. this coming to any positive conclusion in the near term.

[00:01:51] Chris Versace: All right. Well, Bob, Lindsay teed you up very well. Talk to us about the VIX. What's the technical setup for the market? And I'm asking that because, you know, if you were to use the classic, you know, relative strength index, we're nowhere near oversold, not overbought.

We're somewhere in the middle.

[00:02:07] Bob Lang: That's what we call no Man's land, Chris and Lindsay. And the one thing I wanted to express about September was, which is what Lindsay was talking about with being a, such a poor month whenever September comes around it's not that I think of the old Earth, wind and Fire song about September rather, what I actually think about is 2008.

And September 15th is the day that, we lost Lehman brothers and all heck broke loose with financial markets. We, as it was that started that great financial crisis. So it's still fresh in my mind. It's been almost 16 years since that event happened, but still it's still fresh in my mind of remembering.

how the markets suffered and suffered for a very, very long time with the S. P. 500 member back in 2000 and nine went all the way down to 666. And here we are at 50 almost 5500 right now, so it's been quite a quite a run, but still September being a very bad month. Chris, it's something that we have really have to pay attention to.

And as Lindsay alluded to with volatility here, we have to be careful this month.

[00:03:08] Chris Versace: All right. No question about it. That's certainly been the message that I've been, I won't say preaching, but that's the message that I've been sharing with folks. And I just want to ask this one last question before we move on and get into the meat of the show today.

Any thoughts on the Harris Trump debate? I know as we're taping this conversation, we're a little ahead of the debate, but is there anything you guys are expecting to hear one way or the other?

[00:03:31] Lindsey Bell: I think for me, what I'll just jump in here is. I think people are more interested to hear the policies under harris because we know what the trump trade is, right?

And we saw that come into play earlier this year then get unwound when harris came on board but there's no clear harris trade. So and I don't think we're actually going to get that in the debate tomorrow night or tonight. So yeah, I agree

[00:03:53] Chris Versace: with you lindsey You know, it's it's 90 minutes You I think there's going to be a lot more theatrics than policy.

And even if we do get it, you know, I hate to be a cynic. I really do. But these people are campaigning. If you look at the polls, they're, practically neck and neck. They're vying for these independent voters. I really think that they both have to come out and explain why they are the alternative to the other.

But I just don't see how they can do that in 90 minutes and deliver a lot of substance. Maybe I'm wrong. Bob, what do you think?

[00:04:27] Bob Lang: I think you're absolutely right. And the thing that politicians have, trouble doing is telling the truth about things. And, and frankly, you know, if you looked at Vice President Harris, and if she was going to really be honest about what is happening, With the economy, there's nothing wrong here.

The economy is just moving right along. Job growth is slowed down quite a bit. We saw from

[00:04:50] Chris Versace: Bob, Bob, Bob, save that, save that for the first topic, because that's, that's, that, that, that's going to be important.

[00:04:57] Bob Lang: All right. Well, what I'm looking for is a little bit of truth.

And frankly, I'm probably going to be disappointed because I don't think we're going to, we're going to hear, hear very much of it. I look to see. Either one of these opponents not slugging it out, which I'm sure that's probably going to happen. Rather, I just like to see some substance here.

Style is probably going to be the more important thing to one opponent rather than the other, but like to see a little bit more substance here. In this debate, and maybe we'll have another one in October.

[00:05:26] Chris Versace: Well, there's none on the calendar, and Bob, you lost me when you said, I'm hoping for a little truth.

With that, let's move on to the meat of the program, folks. We'll be talking about whether or not September will be like September for the market, or could it be a repeat of April? Did Apple wow with its big glow time event? And what are these rumblings that we're hearing that bank capital requirements May not be as steep as previously expected stick around.

We'll be right back

All right, bob and lindsay you know in our opening comments We kind of talked about how september is looking to be a difficult month for the market Certainly a volatile one, but my question to the two of you is this Will September be like September, usually a bad month, or could we see a repeat of April?

And let me explain what I mean by that. Because, yeah, we're almost in the middle of September. But April, the market sold off as investors. And the market had to contend with a, let's just call it, rate cut reality check. Earlier in the year, the market was expecting five to six rate cuts. Despite the data.

And the Fed, well, you both know what happened. They finally pushed back, and boy, did it push back hard. You know, the S& P 500 lost about 4 percent after that really strong run up in February and March. And today, I'm kind of thinking we could be setting, the market could be setting itself up for something very similar.

I say this because, yeah, you know, September 18th, Fed policy meeting, 25 basis point rate cut. But if we look at the CME FedWatch tool, it's looking for a lot. 100 to 125 basis points by the end of the year. 225 in cuts by June of 2025. Yet August data manufacturing. Yeah. Contracting nothing new services.

PMI strengthened, gave us a little warning on inflation. The August employment report. Okay. Came up short, but when you do the math, it actually added more jobs than the market expected it to. And the Atlanta fed GDP now model, Bob, this is what you were talking about earlier. On the back of that report, it wasn't revised lower.

It was revised higher to two and a half percent. So I, I just look at all this and Lindsay, maybe I'm nuts. Maybe you got some insight that can set me straight, but I don't see how we take all of that and get the equivalent of four to 525 basis point cuts. By the end of the year, I just don't see it.

[00:08:06] Lindsey Bell: Well, the other thing you forgot to mention is that CPI or inflation, depending on whatever gauge you're looking at all of them have, become somewhat sticky at this level, elevated above the Fed's target rate of 2%, right?

So that's another component there I do think that you see weakness under the surface within the consumer, right? And that was really prevalent in the jobs report despite wage growth which plays into that inflation story, right? there just aren't a lot of jobs being added in in the higher paying highly skilled sectors it's a lot of health care and government and other lower income, lower skilled type of jobs.

And that's been the case all year. And we've seen downward revisions, which usually means the economy is slowing. And I think a lot of market participants are viewing that as, Hey the fed's going to see that as a normalization. Cause we've been running hot, even a two and a half percent GDP, according to the fed Atlanta fed now estimate for, for the third quarter.

That's, that's a really good number, right? So I think. You know, I I'm in the camp where I think we get one, maybe two cuts this year. The question is, is how does the market digest it? Because this is a little different than like staying higher. I mean, we're saying you're technically staying higher for longer, but you are starting the rate cutting cycle.

And the question is, is if you're not getting the cuts you want, the economy is probably stronger, which is a positive, right? Whereas if you're getting more cuts, then the economy is weaker and the market's not going to withstand that. So, I think the reaction could be a little bit different. It's going to be choppy though, is what I believe.

[00:09:41] Chris Versace: I agree. And, you know, the resetting of expectations is never a good thing for the market, right? It's kind of like a little kid with a piece of candy and you yank it away. You know, they don't like that. Tantrums ensue. That could be what we see, which is kind of my question is to, you know, could this look more like April when those expectations were reset?

Bob, I'm coming to you in one second, but I just want to add this Lindsay, to your point about the consumer. We're seeing Bob's stores close. Big Lots is going into bankruptcy. 99 cent only stores, they're closing something like 371 locations. Dollar Tree plans to close almost a thousand Family Dollar stores.

You know, this tells you that the lower end consumer is just hurting. But Bob, What do you think about that and tie it into is September going to be more like April or not?

[00:10:36] Bob Lang: Well, I think it means that Walmart is going to be a big winner at the end here, with some of these.

[00:10:40] Chris Versace: Don't forget Costco.

[00:10:42] Bob Lang: Well, Costco is certainly right there with the lower to middle end consumer. But as far as your question about September being like April I don't think it'll be the same, Chris. And here's why. Is because We're certainly much closer to rate cuts today than we were back in April. certainly that has been the MO of the Fed to show that we're gonna move gradually, we're gonna move slow.

we are not gonna make the mistake of trying to derail any sort of potential. Down move in the economy until we can see that that is evident. And that is the case. And that is going to come from the jobs report as Lindsay said about inflation. Inflation numbers have been coming in towards the 2 percent target.

It's very sticky right now, somewhere between 23 to 26 percent on the core for the past couple of months. But it is moving down. I will tell you that if you take a look at the commodities research Bureau index, CRB, that index has dropped more than 10% in the past three months, and that's a significant move for commodities.

So it's commodities across the board. It's not just oil, crude oil is down quite a bit. It's a very large weight in there, but it's, it's a lot of commodities across the board and that is going to have influence in CPI and PPI. The next three to six months. So I think the, the fed certainly with chair Powell, when he talked in Jackson hole, Chris I think he was right to say that it's time it, the time has come to start the rate cutting cycle,

[00:12:16] Chris Versace: I don't think any of the three of us are arguing that I think the question is, is the market going to be disappointed by the pace?

Of the fed starting to cut rates. That's the question that I'm getting at here. And I think Lindsay, you agree with me, Bob, you know, are you thinking that there's room for the market to have the proverbial what is it? The peanuts? Lucy pulls the football from Charlie Brown one more time on rate cuts.

Is that possible?

[00:12:43] Bob Lang: Yes, but that may not come until 2025. I think the aggressive move that the Fed funds futures are looking at are in 2025. I don't think that we're going to get four rate cuts here this year, but I don't think that that disappointment is going to be the same as it was back in April before the end of this year.

That's my

[00:13:02] Chris Versace: point.

[00:13:02] Bob Lang: Okay. Okay. Same camp as Lindsay, probably two rate cuts in 2024.

[00:13:07] Chris Versace: All right, so you're both saying that there is room for disappointment. It just simply may not be as dramatic as we saw in April. I can see that. I do think that we're going to have to really take a look at what the updated set of economic projections are.

And to your point, Bob, it's not going to be for just how many rate cuts we see in 2024. But also for 2025, and I think this is where you come in, Lindsay, saying let's look at the totality of that, right? The total number expected over the next, let's call it 15 months or so. Does that make sense?

[00:13:40] Lindsey Bell: Yeah. I think that's right. But I also think like next year, people are less worried about what's happening next year. We want to get through the end of this year first.

[00:13:47] Chris Versace: I agree, Lindsay, because clearly folks are not thinking about S& P 500 consensus expectations for next year up 15%.

People are worried, freaking out about the economy. How in God's name do you have the S& P 500 earnings up 15%? So I think there's a lot of rethinking that has to happen before we get to the end of the year. Let's move on. Bob, before we do, wrap it all up, put a bow on it. What does it all mean?

[00:14:13] Bob Lang: Well as we talked about earlier about fed funds futures, I mean, boy, good goodness gracious.

I think they've gotten ahead of themselves once again. And, and the danger that you laid out is September going to look like April. And I'm not sure that it's going to be as dramatic of a move down, but we did see some signs that the market. Wasn't happy, at least the first week in September with how things were going and the response to the markets from interest rates coming down too far.

Long end of the curve has been coming down quite, quite significantly, but the response to the market hasn't been positive yet at all. Of course, we are in September the worst trading month of the year. So we'll have to see what happens. I think next week's meeting is going to be very important with new economic projections.

Then also what Chair Powell has to say on the press conference.

[00:14:59] Chris Versace: Bob, let me throw you a bone before we move on or maybe a life preserver here. You, you and I have talked quite a bit and I know that you're a fan of protection. Right. That investors should always have protection on. There's a variety of ways that they can do that.

Inverse ETFs, puts, or even cash. As you look forward, based on where we are today, is it warranted to have some protection on as we move through what will be the back half?

[00:15:26] Bob Lang: Yeah, I think it's important to have protection on. But the thing about it is, is that as we move in towards this election and coming up in just under two months, a lot of that protection was bought last year, we do see a big bump in volatility in October and into November.

So which means that the market is already priced in a lot of chaos, a lot of volatility into the marketplace over that stretch of time. And even over the beginning of 2025, that condition is still pretty high. So I do think it's important to have Protection on or whether you're buying index puts or market puts for your stocks and so forth.

Selling calls. what it does is simply this simply removes a lot of volatility from your portfolios instead of having these big, large moves up and down. You'll have smaller moves up and down. And in times like this, in times of uncertainty, we really don't know who's going to be the president. And again, as Chris, as you mentioned earlier, It's really just divided right down the middle here until we get some more clarity of what's going to happen with that result.

And then with the economy, I think it's certainly it's certainly feasible to have us protection on.

[00:16:35] Chris Versace: All right, let's move on. Last week during our podcast, we talked about Apple's upcoming event. Well, we were concerned whether or not the iPhone maker would be able to, wow. Folks with Apple intelligence they held their event yesterday.

We got a bevy of new products, or I should say. Brand new upgraded models of existing products. For the most part, Apple intelligence looks like it's going to be staged, but the saving grace, if you will, is some pretty fat trade in values for older models. And the key here is everybody has been looking forward to a massive upgrade cycle for iPhone.

Very excited about Apple intelligence. The company's play or twist, if you will, on a I. And by the way, I do like how a I and Apple intelligence, they kind of intermingle. Folks, I'll share what I think at the end. But Bob, you seem to be a little more. Upbeat than a lot of other people coming out of this event.

Tell me why.

[00:17:37] Bob Lang: Well, I mean, I, talk to people a lot who have iPhones and some people who have the competing brands and so forth. And, while their phones seem to work fine, I think they're really excited and looking forward to upgrading their phones to a newer model. I'm certainly in that camp as well, too.

So I think there's a really huge opportunity for Apple Transcribed To quote unquote, stick the landing on a very large amount of iPhone sales. And I think some, analysts are looking close to 260 million units in the next year, year and a half. So a lot of predictions around that number, Chris and you know Lindsay, much of what I was hearing was about this great upgrade for their camera and camera quality and improvements and so forth.

It seems like that's the one. Part of the phone that gets changed so often and gets upgraded and gets improved. And even more, more battery life as well. For this new phone. So I don't know, Lindsay, what do you think?

[00:18:30] Lindsey Bell: you know, as an Apple user myself, those are two of the most important things from my vantage point.

But I, I agree that people, I think were expecting to hear more on the Apple intelligence, the AI front, but you look at the stock reaction. It's, it's not horrible for a stock that's like the valuations that What is that 30 times, which is above it's the five year average. So and it's like seven or 8 percent off the 52 week high, which was hit in July.

So to me, I think that investors are kind of giving, giving Apple a pass on the underwhelming the underwhelming event and release that just came out. I think people are okay with more. Things coming in the next year and kicking the can down the road so I mean the fact of the matter is I think there is a reality in that 300 million iPhones haven't been upgraded in the last four or more years and that there is this potential for a super cycle in upgrades Once people start to learn what AI is and how they can use it from a consumer perspective I know we talked about that in the past bob just Doesn't think that there's any use for him at this point in time, but but others, others do.

And, and I think the more people that there's a lot of people like Bob in that, you got to learn what AI is and how you, how you can utilize it in your everyday life. So there's that learning curve too. So I think investors are giving Apple a pass and I kind of think it's probably warranted because I think the super cycle is inevitable.

It's just, when is it coming?

[00:19:59] Chris Versace: Yeah, I think you're right, Lindsay. My pushback on the entire event is that they really didn't show much with Apple intelligence. There was a lot of build up to that, a lot of expectation for that. And, you know, if they did not throw an 800 trade in value for iPhone 12s or, you know, between iPhone 12 and iPhone 15 or 1, 000, you know Maximum up to for iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 pro and later.

I think the event would have been a big zero. To be honest with you, it would have been more of the same big letdown for Apple intelligence. So for me, it's really are folks going to use these fat trade in values? To kind of really foster the at least the initial wave of this upgrade cycle. To me, that's the big question.

And I'll put it to you, Bob. If you weren't going to get like 800 bucks or a thousand bucks off your new iPhone, would you be trading it in now?

[00:20:59] Bob Lang: No, absolutely not. So I, I mean, I got my I got my new phone. My 12, I got an 880. Rebate from T Mobile. So this phone really only cost about 100 120 bucks or something like 130 bucks.

So yeah, I know. I mean, it's certainly helpful to get that extra money coming back to me to upgrade the phone. But I'm certainly intrigued by the new stuff that's coming out. And Lindsay, I'm willing to take a I classes if I have to.

[00:21:28] Lindsey Bell: I'll take it with you.

Hey, Chris, I think what it comes down to is none of us are really first mover. Maybe you are, but Bob and I are not first movers in the tech space. I just got a new iPhone this year because of the battery issue. So I'm good for another 4 years. I think.

[00:21:44] Chris Versace: All right. Well, I, I am an early adopter when it comes to Apple products, and I am in the beta program for the software on pretty much every Apple device that I have.

And I can say this so far, based on what I've seen not seeing anything worth upgrading. Low and behold for only Apple intelligence, but we'll see. What? What other quick thing? And I just want to get the quick reaction here from you guys. There's a lot of folks that are talking about channel checks and the supply chain is gearing up, right?

And when I think about that, That's really initial selling volumes. Okay. And you would expect those to be strong. Those are a new product. And I would push back and say that channel checks and selling are important. Sell through to the end customer restocking reordering is as important because that's going to tell us whether or not we're really getting that.

Supercycle starting to happen or just an regular upgrade cycle, or it's just the Apple faithful doing what they always do and helping Apple sell out of initial runs of product. What do you guys think?

[00:22:51] Lindsey Bell: Well, I'll jump in because I hear that all the time, too, and it makes me nervous, probably as someone that used to follow the retail industry, because when your inventories get too high, what do you have to do?

You have to discount, not that Apple actually does that, but it's a concern. So. I agree with you. I think you're you're common is absolutely correct.

[00:23:10] Chris Versace: Well, that's all I need. Bob. I don't need to hear from you on this. No, go ahead.

[00:23:15] Bob Lang: No, I, I, I agree with that. And sometimes over the years when Apple's introduced your new phone, they've had extended cycles of of sell through you know, as an Apple investor and having having been for quite a while, it makes me a little bit nervous because I'm worried that, you know, did the stock price jump ahead of the next cycle. And of course, if we're talking super cycle here, which we haven't had for quite some time for Apple's iPhone, did the stock price jump up way too far ahead of time? And then we don't have very much room for for the stock to grow into the end of the year. And we do have the holidays coming up.

coming up next three months. So hopefully remember there was a, there was a time, Chris, do you remember when they were short phones coming into the holidays. It was, a terrible situation for Apple and, and PR wise, and they had to you know, quickly get phones out by like I've just after Thanksgiving.

[00:24:07] Chris Versace: Yeah, no, it's that's why they've kind of pulled that event forward right in the supply chain ramps. I mean, look, if you look at you know, as we're taping today, Taiwan semis, August revenue came out of 33 percent year over year over year, the trailing three months up massively, you know, Taiwan semis, probably tracking for their best quarter ever, good for smartphones and a bunch of other end markets, data center, AI and the like.

But again, that's, that's all on the sell in Lindsay. So we've got to see. I think what the sell through is. But Lindsay, before we get to our third and final topic of the day, wrap it up for us, will you?

[00:24:43] Lindsey Bell: I think what we're all saying basically with when it comes to Apple stock is that it's a beloved stock of investors.

It's a darling in the market. It's doing well this year. And and I think it has potential to do well next year as this cycle is stretched a bit. So, well, I think the event might have been a bit disappointing to not just Chris, but other folks on the street I think that the stock could probably Hang in there, through the next year.

[00:25:12] Chris Versace: All right. Sounds like a not so ringing endorsement lindsey. That's all i'll say about that all right, let's move on to our third and final topic. This is a little different for us We're going to talk about banks and other financials If you've been paying attention to any of the events Fed Chair Powell's press conference is invariably the topic of bank capital requirements has come up.

There was an original plan put in place by the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, and the, I'll try and get this out straight folks, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, all of which was calling for a 19 percent increase in capital requirements for some of the big banks out there. Of course, they lobbied, fought back hard.

There was a lot of conversation going on, and Fed Chair Powell kind of saying that he and the rest of the Fed heads were going to take a closer look at this. Now we're hearing that there will still be capital requirements moving higher, but it's more likely to be around 9%, nowhere near 19%. Bob, is this a good thing for banks and investors?

[00:26:15] Bob Lang: Yeah, I think it's a great thing for banks like JP Morgan, Bank of America to a lesser extent, Wells Fargo Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley. The big, big banks are gonna have more capital to buy shares back and increase their dividends. But also, I think the message being sent from the Fed is, they want to encourage them to do more business and to take the responsibility of holding up the economy away from the Fed and move it on to the banks, lending more and having more capital available to, to give out to customers and to, to new clients and so forth, is an important part of, of the Fed's transition.

Of supporting the economy in a heavy way as they have Been for the past, you know, 10, 15 years handing it over to the banks. So I, I, I think it's an important move for the fed to do this.

[00:27:10] Chris Versace: So Lindsey, let's say that Bob is onto something here and that the, you know, that the fed wants banks to help support it.

Would the, and I got to try and remember this, but the acronym is the SLUCE report, which is something we see every quarter and it kind of indicates a bank lending officer. activity and expected activity. The last several quarterly reports have all talked about tightening of credit, slowing down of lending and borrowing to commercial real estate to consumers and other areas.

Would you be looking for some follow through in the next iteration of this loose report once the, once these capital requirements are kind of sussed out and firmed up?

[00:27:54] Lindsey Bell: Well, it's a complex question. I think it's, it's more difficult than that. Just lending requirements being reduced and while that I think is certainly a positive and, you know, Jamie diamond has been a massive vocal person on the topic because, you raise requirements.

That forces banks to charge. They just pass that through the consumer, right? So I think bonds onto something that you know, this this helps with potential potential lending and reducing the cost of lending but I also think you know, there's the Barclays as we're speaking The Barclays financial conference is happening and what you're hearing.

I've just caught a couple snippets and headlines You do hear a few of the banks talking about the consumer slowing down and shifting their spending to You To staples and essentials away, which we talk about all the time away from discretionary items. And you talked early at the top of the show about the announcement from ally, my former employer talking about the linquency rates in their auto business increasing.

And so I do think that that banks are keeping a close pulse on the economy as they always do too. And we'll make lending decisions based on that too, not just regulations and regulatory. environments. So, so I do, I think it's an overall positive. I don't know if you see it follow through to the next SLUCE report is the short answer.

[00:29:14] Chris Versace: Is it, is it a disappointment, Lindsay, if this only translates into more stock buybacks and dividend hikes for banks?

[00:29:23] Lindsey Bell: I, it depends on who you ask, right? If you ask shareholders.

[00:29:26] Chris Versace: I'm asking, I'm asking Lindsay Bell.

[00:29:29] Lindsey Bell: You ask Lindsay Bell, the answer is yes, it's a disappointment. But if you ask shareholders, they say, woohoo, go us.

And because they're going to continue to see the stock price rise. If you look at the financial services sector in the S& P 500 up 19 percent year to date versus what a 14, 15 percent increase in the S& P 500. So there it is. We are seeing outperforming, but it depends on like, where are we at in the cycle too?

Because if we're mid cycle, you, the bank could potentially be doing better from an outperformance perspective. So there could be room to run and this could just give them a little boost. But again, and also like, remember, don't forget that financials are all these banks are so different. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and they're different from, you know, the regional banks and, and then the smaller banks.

So there's, There's a lot of different ways you can play the sector too, and some benefit more from regulation, looser regulation, I mean they all benefit, but, you know, some have more at stake than others, versus like, you know, an ally is more levered to the auto industry. You know, some banks are more levered, like Bank of America has bigger credit book, credit card book, right?

So you have to look at, like, the underlying. I think, yeah,

[00:30:41] Chris Versace: You're absolutely right. I mean, just because they're labeled as it's a lot like the chip sector, right? Where we could say, oh, they make chips. Well, what's the end market that they really serve? P. C. Smartphone. A. I. Data center.

networking, blah, blah, blah. The same is true with financials. Your Morgan Stanley is not like your Wells Fargo. You know, it's a great reminder that as investors, you really need to understand what it is you're owning or contemplating owning. So I'll wrap up this segment by saying I'm afraid to say, folks, that we're gonna have to wait and see exactly What these proposals are and for that, well, we might have a little bit of homework gang.

I say this because next week a report of about 450 pages talking about these revisions is going to be released on September 19th Bob you will have no trouble going to sleep the night of September 19th I can't

[00:31:39] Bob Lang: wait. I can't wait to dig into that short report, Chris.

[00:31:43] Chris Versace: Oh, please, please.

You'll be the one who's looking for the cliff notes. All right. With that folks stay tuned. We'll be right back to put a bow on this episode.

Hey, Bob, Lindsay, did you guys ever hear of a band called the fabulous T Birds or the fabulous Thunderbirds?

[00:32:04] Bob Lang: Yes, they have. I see where your reference is. I that's one of my favorite songs. Wrap it up. And then ain't it tough enough to Chris?

[00:32:12] Chris Versace: Well, it ain't well, it might be tough enough, but it won't be tough enough for you to wrap it up, Bob.

Let's do that with this week's episode. What did you learn this week, Bob? What really stood out to you?

[00:32:22] Bob Lang: the most important thing that stood out to me is this conversation we had about the banks and the capital requirements that was really came as a bit of a surprise to me. But as far as the timing is concerned, you know, with the Fed trying to sunset their hawkish policy and start pivoting out to a more of a of a dovish policy.

It's going to take some quite some time in my view to get back to a neutral. What they're trying to do is they're trying to hand off some of that responsibility of supporting the economy out to the banks. And allowing them to release more capital out hopefully, as Lindsey said, it's not going to be for buybacks of stock and paying dividends, rather to help support the economy and, loaning funds out.

But that was probably one of the more interesting things that I learned today.

[00:33:09] Chris Versace: Lindsey?

[00:33:09] Lindsey Bell: Yeah, I think given all the different topics we talked about, to me, I think the takeaway really is what you started at the top. September is going to be September. It's going to probably be a weak month. It's going to be choppy, but that's because there's going to be puts and takes.

There's positives and there are negatives. And we talked through a bunch of that throughout today's show. And so I think that investors just need to kind of like buckle in and get ready for that. Yeah. I mean, we're almost halfway through the month anyway, so you've made it this far. You can make it through October, but I will, I will leave one little warning that October tends to be pretty weak ahead of an election.

So not as weak as September though. So you might just have to, and I'm sure Bob would tell us, it's also a volatile, a volatile month ahead of an election.

[00:33:58] Bob Lang: Historically, historically, October is the quote unquote, the crash month, right?

[00:34:04] Chris Versace: Wow, you guys are just, you guys are just filled with good news.

[00:34:06] Lindsey Bell: I said there are some positives to you.

I know,

[00:34:09] Chris Versace: I know what you said. You said puts intakes. I'll say this that I, as I think back on our conversation, there's a lot that's going on for what the market has been expecting. And I think there's some questions as to whether or not reality is going to live up to that. That could be rate cuts.

That could be, that gets back to our conversation about the Apple iPhone upgrade cycle. Even potentially with what happens with the extra capital, if you will, that these financial institutions might have. So it's something to stay tuned for, check the data for, and that's something that we'll be doing. So please make sure that you're coming back each and every week.

And that is a wrap for this week's episode. Be sure, folks, to check the show notes and the resources. Be also to check out explosiveoptions. net. Read Lindsey's The Shift Newsletter. And as always, you can find me over at The Street Pro Portfolio. Thanks for listening, and we'll be back with you next week.