Can Trump's "Art of the Country" Deliver Results?

In this episode, Chris Versace welcomes guest co-host J.D. Durkin, host of ‘Common Threads’, an online political debate show. Durkin brings valuable insights into understanding the November retail sales and what to expect from the Fed's policies. They also discuss the transition from President-elect Trump to President Trump, focusing on political and economic implications, including tariffs and budget reconciliation. 

The What Does It Mean? podcast cuts through the noise to lay out what matters most for the stock market, the economy, and your personal finances. Each week, we break down the latest trends, explain the headlines, and help you understand how they affect your money in a clear, no-nonsense way.

Related: Is the AI Revolution Still Investable?

J.D. Durkin

Chris Versace

Lindsey Bell

 

Transcript:

Chris Versace: [00:00:00] Hey everyone, welcome back to another episode of the What Does It Mean podcast. I'm Chris Versace, one of your co hosts. Lindsey Bell is off this week, likely squeezing in some early holiday cheer if I know Lindsey, but I have to say in her steed, we have a wonderful guest co host, Mr. J. D. Durkin, a long term, a long time, I should say, friend of mine and a guy who is going to bring some great color and context. . .

to the topics that we'll be talking about with you today. Durkin, as I like to call him, he's currently a host for Public, where he interviews movers, shakers, and other business leaders. He's also a host for Common Threads, a great political debate podcast that I think you should listen to. And he's also a contributor over at CBS News.

Needless to say, I think he's got some things to share. JD, welcome to the family, and tell us just a little bit more about Common Threads, because it is going to be key to our second topic today.

J.D. Durkin: It is a [00:01:00] political debate show here, Chris, aimed at trying to defuse a lot of the political turmoil and the heated rhetoric that exists out there in our world of politics. And what a time to have a show like that and an opportunity to have those conversations with the incoming administration. And what an interesting time to try and figure out how much does this look like the first Trump administration?

And to what degree are we in for something we've never quite seen before? And I will say, thank you for having me. No small task to try and fill in for the great Lindsey Bell, but I'll certainly do my best.

Chris Versace: I'm sure you will do quite well and Lindsey will be pleased. It does sound like JD, the common threads is something that we, it's very similar to what we try to do here with what Does it Mean? Bring some clarity, bring some context. We, of course, try to do it for investors, the market and the economy.

But it sounds like you're trying to do that on the political front. I think that's going to be very additive to our second topic today. And let's talk about our topics today before we get to them. First, is Santa Claus coming to town this year. Let's talk [00:02:00] about those November retail sales and what they mean. Second, and this is where you'll come in going from president elect Trump to president Trump. What should we in the market be watching? And then finally, will we see a Santa Claus rally in the market? Or perhaps will the Fed serve up a big lump of coal for investors? Stay tuned folks, JD and I, we'll be right back. All right, folks, we are back. And as a reminder, J. D. Jerkin is joining me today, sitting in for Lindsey Bell. J. D., let's get to our first topic. Is Santa Claus coming to town this year? What did you make of the November retail sales?

J.D. Durkin: Yeah, well, increase more than expected overall, and I think what's really interesting here, Chris, is for all the consternation of the concern from the U. S. consumer, right? We've had this conversation for so [00:03:00] long that people feel stretched. People feel like they're not quite economically where they would want to be.

We all know that American consumers and consumers in lots of countries have felt the squeeze of increased price points and inflation pressures at a gas pump at the grocery store. And yet that has to go inside with a very strong holiday shopping season, which certainly has been the expectation. And I think a real question, Chris, is how much are these retail sales figures really a litmus test for the strength of consumer spending for this particular holiday season.

Chris Versace: Well, I think you're onto something there, but I also think, J. D., that we're seeing consumers be oportunistic, right? When we heard Target report, what did they say for the all important holiday shopping season? They said, our comp sales are going to be flat to down. Not very good. And I think what we're seeing as a result of not only that comment, but from several others like Target, we're seeing a more pronounced promotional [00:04:00] shopping season. And I think you're seeing folks really kind of helicopter in and take advantage of that. But I also think though, too, that is, as we kind of sift through that report, we have to acknowledge that folks are just more online than than they every have before. You could blame Amazon for its Black Friday Week sales effort that it had. Competing efforts by Walmart and others.

I just think consumers are willing to shop if they can find the right deals in front of them to put capital to work, to stretch those disposable spending dollars. But are you overall J. D. Kind of enthusiastic about the holiday shopping season? Or are you in your work, your travels noticing kind of a more still subdued consumer?

J.D. Durkin: I'm not personally enthusiastic, Chris, because I haven't gotten very much of it done just yet. But otherwise, yes, of course. And I think, unfortunately, it's a lot, it's the type of thing where, a lot of people, of course, and I understand the grievances. People complain [00:05:00] about that sticker shock. And I hear that from my loved ones.

I've experienced it myself. Friends and family say, my goodness, I cannot believe the cost of X item. I'm still going to buy it. I'm still going to inherently kind of put that or reinforce that upward pressure on that pricing but it's interesting. You mentioned Target, obviously a little bit of a different shopping demographic and some of the other major retailers. Target stock is down about 8 percent year to date, but Chris, it's a wildly different story for Amazon, which you mentioned up more than 50 percent and Walmart has really knocked the cover off the ball.

Obviously Walmart and Target similar in some ways, very dissimilar in others. Walmart stock up 78 percent from the start of the year. So I think we are seeing, as we've heard from Walmart and a company like Walmart in previous earnings calls, more six figure income earners are turning to a place like Walmart to do those base necessity shoppings, things like groceries, et cetera, that I think the company's really ever seen before.

And I think that's largely reflective in how [00:06:00] the stock has performed and put in a bit of daylight or separation between itself and a company like Target.

Chris Versace: I think you're right on that. But I would also point out as long as you're pulling up those charts, be sure to look at Costco because it has been a beast so far this year. You know, and it is kind of interesting, right? You hammer home on the point of stretching dollars. And there was a statistic that kind of jumped out at me as I was getting ready for our conversation today.

It's that 6 percent of all holiday shopping orders are buy now, pay later. Unbelieveable. I think that really speaks to the, pain that some consumers are, or even not the pain, the conflict. I want to buy something nice for someone I love, someone I care for. I can't really afford it. Let me use BNPL to do that or buy now pay later. But it's a tough spot for a lot of consumers because despite all the chatter about improving inflation, the consumer feels the overall higher price levels, that [00:07:00] pinch.

I think it's going to set us up, JD, for probably an even stronger post Christmas sales season, where consumers are really like, okay. It's go time. Things are really on sale now. I can load up. And maybe they want a lot of gift cards ahead of that, so they can take advantage of that. What do you think?

J.D. Durkin: Yeah, we saw on Cyber Monday was the best day yet for buy now pay later more than 990 million alone in that single day and now all this is leading up to a really consequential week that we got here, Chris, which is the final Fed decision. And I'm really interested to see how either the recent inflation data or even some of this retail spending might kind of influence, if at all, the Fed's decision.

Obviously they meet today as you and I are having this recording. We get that expected decision tomorrow, which markets are expecting another cut of 25 basis points. But I think that all this conversation leads to a fair bit of uncertainty for what the path forward is for policymakers at the FOMC in [00:08:00] 2025.

Chris Versace: I totally agree with you on that. You are a lightning rod here but you're jumping ahead, JD. Just hang on, hang on.

J.D. Durkin: That's how excited I am to be here, Chris.

Chris Versace: I know, I know, I know. It's like you're a kid in a candy store. I'm just excited because unlike our usual conversations, I'm asking you questions and I'd love the answers and the feedback.

So, but let me just ask you kind of one or two other things about this. As we think about, the shopping season, traditionally, there's a lot of folks that kind of wait until the very end. And I think, you know, there's some statistics out there that say, whether it's Gen Z, millennials, or even baby boomers, there's a lot of folks waiting for the last one to two weeks. So I do think that we could see a final hurrah. You obviously just mentioned you haven't gotten to all your holiday shopping season. You know, maybe you'll get there, maybe you won't. Hopefully you will. But maybe there'll be a cringle involved for some. We'll see. I guess my question to you, just to round it out, is. Are you thinking that [00:09:00] we could see some potential pull forward in shopping given a lot of headlines about President Trump and tariffs?

J.D. Durkin: I don't know how much the average individual consumer is super focused on tariffs individually. I think these are the sorts of conversations that are very important that we are more inclined to have in the corridors of Wall Street or at the intersection of Capitol Hill and Wall Street. I can't say that the issue of tariffs has come up a whole lot anecdotally in my personal conversations, except for people who are just trying to ask me like, what is a tariff? How does it work? Why is it a big deal?

Chris Versace: Right, right. Yeah,

J.D. Durkin: And we were joking when we started the recording here about how quickly this year has gone along. I don't know what's happening with time where we're suddenly like, It's suddenly the end of the year, but that's what I'm sensing from people, which is, wow, this holiday season really took me by surprise.

I am behind on all the holiday shopping that I wanted to do. Even if Amazon [00:10:00] did roll out a week's long worth of cyber Monday or black Friday related deals. And I think hopefully a lot of people were able to get that shopping done earlier, but that pull forward effect may go on. Given any of the uncertainty we get started January 2nd or January 20th, rather.

Chris Versace: I'm I don't really see John Q public sitting there sweating out tariffs. I think there's a lot of headlines on that. But as we talk about the move from president elect Trump becoming president Trump in early January, I think that we've really got to kind of understand a little bit of the playbook. You know, there are articles out even this morning talking about how Trump likes to be viewed as a bit of a madman to keep his quote unquote opponents, whether they're, you know, Putin, Xi or whoever, kind of off balance, you know, reiterating, if you will, one of the key tenants of his art of the deal book, which is keep your opponents off balance. And I think we've seen that from him, whether or not he [00:11:00] means to do it. Or he can't help himself, I think is a little open for debate. But what are you thinking, as we get ready for inauguration? I know folks are starting to line up, kind of donating some big money to Trump, kind of, I think someone called it a kiss the ring tour.

J.D. Durkin: Well, yeah, there certainly is me to the point of some of the most influential names in the business community, Chris. It has been impossible not to recognize. bit of a shift of approach this time for the second Trump administration. Of course, Donald Trump now has the benefit in a way that only Grover Cleveland in us history has had, which was two non consecutive terms.

You're not sort of carrying on the baggage of your first four years immediately into your second four years. I think that has allowed the Trump transition team and the president elect himself to better evaluate, what would we do differently if we got a fresh start? And that also goes true for the business community, right, Chris?

So we've seen Amazon, Meta, OpenAI, several other key players. [00:12:00] They're donating a million dollars each to the Trump inaugural fund. We've had people like Sundar Pichai And Tim Cook personally dine with the President Elect. Mark Benioff over at Time Magazine, and of course, Salesforce recently naming Trump person of the year. So, um, you know, Tim Cook did this really well during the first administration. How do I establish a really personal relationship with the White House so that my company, in the case of Tim cook, of course, being Apple, that we make sure that we avoid the worst of the retaliatory crosshairs, this. Tariff tit for tat, if you will, between Washington and Beijing.

I would argue it's something a company like Apple did a really effective job at navigating the first time around. And no doubt, Chris, a lot of these other key names in the world of corporate America and key business leaders, they want to be able to do the same for the second time around.

Chris Versace: Yeah, well, I look, they understand that the framework is going to shift compared to what it was under Biden to what it will be under Trump. I also think they're trying to get an inside read [00:13:00] on what some of the potential policy outcomes could be. You remember with Biden, he was very much interested in government stimulus programs that really benefited, not only the economy, but a number of different stock areas, stock categories, we can call them that, whether it's infrastructure, EV charging, or what have you.

And I'm not surprised that they are trying to court that kind of inside baseball approach with Trump, especially since he likes to be courted. Right? This guy wants to be at the center of attention. You mentioned Mark Benioff over at Salesforce who happens to own Time Magazine. Man, talk about a major kiss up naming Trump, person of the year.

I mean, just come on. So I do suspect there's some courting of favor going on in here, but I think what's going to be important is watching something that Trump did in his first term, which is courting businesses to [00:14:00] invest in the U S and, you know, Soft Bank has just come out and they are looking to apparently make something an order of magnitude of a hundred billion dollar investment in the U S over the next several years.

And Trump was even teasing him saying, ah, you know, I'd really prefer something more like 200 billion. And the CEO was like yeah. I'll see what I can do. So I think we're going to see more of that. And while it's wacky I admit to the extent that he can start to pull this off, it's good for the economy, it's good for investors.

J.D. Durkin: It's worth remembering this SoftBank announcement that we had earlier this week alongside Trump. They're kind of running back a similar playbook, Chris, that they did in 2016, because during the Trump transition SoftBank also made a somewhat comparable promise. It was about half the money, 50 billion for a promise of 50, 000 jobs.

I think the problem with how that era of investment played itself out was that so much of that investment from SoftBank went into companies [00:15:00] like FTX and We Work. This is all before We Work ended up filing for bankruptcy. So it was not entirely clear how sort of successful that first tranche of money was, but yes, the plans to invest now at least a hundred billion dollars intended to create a hundred thousand jobs.

And uh, Trump transition officials said that investment will focus on technology and artificial intelligence over the course of the next few years. So certainly puts Trump in the spotlight, puts key business leaders who are cozying up to him in the spotlight as well. But there are questions of where the company goes to actually get that capital, right?

They don't have a hundred billion dollars in cash on hand, probably closer to 20 to 25 billion on hand for cash and equivalent. So they'll need to raise a lot of this money alongside other partners, which the Arm IPO perhaps has helped with. I know that's a story you've covered very closely.

And I think the Arm component is also a really fascinating part of that development.

CV: I, I tend to agree with you on that, but there's also a part of [00:16:00] me that's just a little skeptical on these big announcements. I almost think that they're, similar to a company that announces, you know, some major stock buyback program. And it's always kind of hanging out there, never really gets completed. Sounds good at the time, but, it's kind of like some certain types of food that you eat them now, you feel good, and like an hour later, you're yeah, hungry.

I, I, you know, like, I'm not full. Something's off. Something's wrong.

J.D. Durkin: Empty calories.

Chris Versace: Yeah, yeah, yeah, Yeah. Exactly. Thank you.

So, I, you know, I I'm enthused by the announcement, but, you know, as any good professional sports player will tell you, whether it's a quarterback, a golfer, you know, tennis player, even someone standing at the plate with a baseball bat in their hands, it's all about the follow through.

That is what's going to matter most, I think. So I look forward to hearing more about this both the individual SoftBank announcement and others that we're likely going to get as [00:17:00] President elect Trump becomes President Trump. And with that, J. D., whether it's tariffs, or other topics, you know, you're given what you're doing with common threads, but also your, past, when you covered Washington, what, what's the insight, the pearl of wisdom, that you could say to investors and listeners of the podcast?

Look, I know you're seeing a lot of headlines, you're seeing a lot of noise, but this is the thing to follow. If you really want to understand what's happening.

J.D. Durkin: Yeah, I definitely say, first of all, expect the unexpected just when you think you've got this guy figured out. It's just back in the day when I was a Trump White House reporter the 1st time around Chris, you could have been so sure on how he felt on a certain issue and a 3 am tweet would completely blow that up.

I think the 1st thing we're going to talk a lot about in the next year, especially are tariffs, and we have to we can't forget, Congress has largely ceded tariff authority into the hand of the executive branch. So it's the ultimate day one negotiating tactic. Doesn't [00:18:00] matter what the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue looks like, even if this ends up being a kind of inflationary tax on the U S consumer, Donald Trump, the ultimate showman, the president elect, he will sell this.

He will spin this as a positive to the American people. Legislatively, and I don't want to get too in the weeds. Republicans, given the very small margins they have in the House, have to rely on this very wonky procedural mechanism known as budget reconciliation. It's kind of a sneaky workaround way to pass bills without having 60 vote support in the Senate.

To be clear, both parties have done it. Joe Biden used it a number of times as well, but the real question right now is, will Republicans use that little bit of capital they have first on tax cuts, either new tax cuts or renewing the 2017 tax cuts and jobs act, or will they target a hybrid border, energy production bill first.

Traditional thinking in Washington is you only get one bite of the budget reconciliation apple a year. And before you know it, everyone's going to be [00:19:00] scrambling for those midterm elections coming up, which sounds like they're far off, but they're really not. So that to me is one of the really big, interesting questions for the first few months of the administration.

Do they go at taxes or do they go at border and energy? And that says a lot about the priority and what they feel like they can get done with their narrow margins.

Chris Versace: Yeah, I mean, the way Trump is talking about taxes and trying to get the corporate tax rate down to 15 percent and extending them. You know, to me, I understand that the border is an issue that a lot of people feel about. But I think the mistake that Trump made the first time around was he was so dead set on repealing Obamacare that he did not deliver an easy win that would increase his popularity with all and I hope that he's kind of, learned that lesson and if he has, it suggests to me that maybe taxes are going to be the first one that he tackles, especially given concern about the economy. And if he's also pulling a lever on tariffs, right? That [00:20:00] kind of a nice check and balance, if you will, for the economy. Right. He can do one thing but give some relief elsewhere. And on tariffs, J. D., I just got to ask you straight up. How much of this do you think is bluster by Trump just to get folks to the table to talk?

J.D. Durkin: I'm sure most of it is bluster by Trump, but to Trump's credit, I will say, despite being called out for that bluster by Democrats, the Biden Harris administration very quietly kept in place a very large number of the Trump era tariffs. And that to me communicated, we can criticize this guy for tariffs.

We can criticize the bluster. But when we took control of power, we're actually going to quietly continue it. Cause maybe Trump was actually onto something, which I thought was sort of one of the more under reported, under discussed realities of the last four years, and I think that maybe even further emboldens the incoming president to say.

Hey, this works so well, the first time Democrats quietly agreed with it. Now we can really see [00:21:00] how hard we can push it. So that might mean a lot of market uncertainty. But I'm also interested, which is, might be part of that, is the general EV conversation for Trump. This is a topic he's been very skeptical about.

You cover the space very closely. Now you got the Elon Musk factor on it. And it sounds like he's maybe softened his views a little bit, but how that whole thing plays itself out. You mentioned he tried to dismantle Obamacare. I'm sure there's going to be a lot of EV subsidies and electric vehicle support from Biden

Trump will try and undo. And I'd have to imagine however the chips fall, Chris, that only means a benefit to investors of Tesla.

Chris Versace: I was going to say the exact same thing. If you're repealing some of the funds for EV charging build out of a national network, gee, who might benefit from that? And who's trying to become the de facto standard I think we'll have to watch that. We'll have to watch what happens with SpaceX and NASA funding and a whole host of things.

But I think [00:22:00] to close out the conversation on tariffs, J. D., I think we're going to have to see, is Trump crazy? Or just simply crazy like a fox and only time will tell on that. With that, let's kind of move to a topic that you uh almost jumped the gun on me there, uh, where you were talking about, November retail sales data, some other economic data and the setup for the Fed's policy meeting this week. Have you noticed that market expectations for rate cuts for 2025 have slowly been coming down? And if you look at the CME FedWatch tool right now, by the end of December 2025, assuming the Fed delivers a rate cut this week, we might only get, according to the market, one, maybe two more rate cuts in 2025.

A very different picture.

J.D. Durkin: Well, all the more important. Yes, it's correct. All the more important. I think for the dot plot projections, we'll finally get here in December for the FOMC. Of course, for who might be a bit unfamiliar with the [00:23:00] schedule, it's eight fed meetings a year. We only get these every other meeting to give us a sense now.

Granted, the Fed is oftentimes wrong with these projections, whether it's unemployment or the number of expected cuts, but Chris, are you surprised to see that, Hey, you know, we could do a hundred basis points in theory here for 2024, maybe only, what are we baking in now? Another 50 basis points total for next year.

I'd have to imagine part of that is. Let's see what the impact of tariffs is. Let's see what consumer spending, some of these inflation prints, maybe not quite getting as close to 2 percent as we would like. Chris, you may remember what has the expectation been for another hundred in 2025 up until recently.

Chris Versace: Well expectation by whom by the Fed, you remember the last time they updated their economic projections back in September, they did see another hundred basis points in rate cuts coming, but even Powell at the recent deal book summit said hey, the economy is stronger than we thought Inflation has not really made the progress We expected it [00:24:00] to and I think you are going to see the Fed dial back the number of rate cuts, with its updated set of projections this week, but the question is, does it go from 4 to 2, 4 to 1?

What's it going to do? And for my money, I think it's going to go from 4 to 2. And I think it's because it does want to continue to deliver. There might be a little bit as to what you talked about, JD, concern about the economy heading into 2025, tariffs, other uncertainties. But I also think that the Fed realizes the economy is strong enough that it can slowly get policy back to a neutral rate Rather than keeping it restrictive because at the end of the day, and you know folks don't really want to think about this, but at some point we will have a recession and the Fed will need to have some firepower in terms of monetary policy. So it's got to get to that point. Now, whether or not they deliver two cuts in the first half of this year, two cuts [00:25:00] in the back half of the year, time will tell based on the data that we get coming into the first quarter of 2025. So, the wind up on all this is, I think the Fed's going to deliver fewer rate cuts next year. But as long as they match the market forecast, we are going to see, I think, a market rally after the Fed meeting, just like we saw after the better than feared November CPI report. And remember too, there's some data out there from Bank of America about the amount of inflows that we've seen over the last several weeks.

Morningstar has some other figures out there as well. The reality is, folks are enthused, they're optimistic, dare I say bullish, JD, with an oversold market, money coming in, and the Fed kind of delivering what the market expects, could be a coiled spring for equities. That's what I think.

J.D. Durkin: Pardon a, what might be a bit of a [00:26:00] blasphemous question. Is a potential interest rate hike at some point completely off the table in your book. If they are unable to kind of get these last little bit of inflation down, CPI, PCE, producers, that starts to trend in the wrong direction. Or do you think they're in a camp to say, well, we're not going to hike at some point, but we might just do a very extended pause throughout much of 2025.

Chris Versace: I think the risk is more towards a pause, an extended pause to use your words, not a hike, because policy's already restricted, and I think they're more inclined to give it just more time to work, hence an extended pause. But the longer the pause goes, the more folks are going to have to readjust their expectations for more interest rate sensitive areas of the market. But I also think at the same time, JD, that if we don't see a really tariff heavy environment, more more bark than bite, if you will, if we do see some positive movement on taxes, [00:27:00] I think that the market will be, well, the market will take care of itself anyway, even though interest rates might remain in restrictive territory longer than expected because the market's a forward looking animal and we'll see better times ahead.

J.D. Durkin: For sure, I would love to get your gauge. Also, if I can, you mentioned the Santa Claus rally. Of course the final 5 trading days of the year. The 1st, 2 of the next year. If I remember correctly, Chris last year's rally was more of a dud leaving investors with a lot of questions about what 2024 would look like.

As you and I are having this conversation, the S and P 500 significantly exceeding most, if not all expectations up more than 25 percent year to date, that does the end of year potential rally really tell us anything about what to expect for the new year, if at all.

Chris Versace: No, I don't think it does, honestly. I think there's a degree of FOMO, fear of missing out there. You mentioned the robust returns of the S& P 500 year to date. For me it's a sign more to be prudent and careful because we know that, you [00:28:00] know, I hate to say it, the average retail investor tends to get in at the wrong time more often than not.

I think though that the next catalyst to watch for the market is going to be what we start to see a little bit this week from quarterly results from FedEx and Nike, because they will be giving early guidance for 2025. And then as we move into January past the holidays, we're going to have obviously the start of the December quarter earning season.

And then we're going to learn, JD, how realistic consensus EPS numbers are for the S& P 500 in 2025. And as we sit here, they're still expected to rise over 14 percent. That's a big jump compared to what we saw this year. Yes, the economy is better than we thought. There are some positives that the Trump administration might roll out that helps, you know, continue that enthusiasm. But at the same time, I wouldn't be surprised if we see some companies kind of take a more conservative approach, call me [00:29:00] cynical. Maybe they want to reset the bar only to walk over it later.

J.D. Durkin: Hey absolutely. And in the meantime we will see a lot of these companies and those CEOs as we've already talked about here, Chris, continuing to establish that personal relationship with the president elect. I was struck this week when Trump said in my first term, everybody was fighting. In this term, everybody wants to be my friend.

Probably something you want to hear if you are an investor in one of those key companies and you're seeing that business leader, that CEO have those relationships. You're hoping that similar to Apple several years ago, your company is able to navigate any potential choppy waters, whether the fed or anything policy out of DC.

So, you know, this is the type of season and the type of presidency, Chris, we're all very grateful for caffeine. This is what fuels us. There's lots of nights I don't sleep very often, Chris. And so, man, having that black cup of coffee first thing in the morning, we're all very grateful for that because I don't know any other way that, people like yourself or journalists or whoever it is can [00:30:00] possibly try and keep up with the flurry of news we're in for at least the next six months.

Chris Versace: while we take a quick break and come back and wrap up the podcast, I'll say go caffeine up, take up my friend. Unfortunately though, you're probably paying a little more because man, oh man, those coffee prices, those coffee bean prices out of control. We'll be right back. All right, folks. This is the part of the podcast where we kind of share what we learned from our conversation today. J. D., you're the guest. You want to go first? You want to go second? Kind of up to you.

J.D. Durkin: Yeah, I think just, you know, reasonably setting the expectations for the challenges of the Fed. I think that's the big one, right? I mean, we put such a focus on those individual inflation prints. And I think the challenge now for the central bank and policymakers at the FOMC, Chris, is now the Trump component.

What does tariffs look like? What does that look like for the end consumer? What does that look like for spending and upward pressure on pricing? [00:31:00] And we have watched time and time again, the overall market respond. Not just to decisions from the Fed, but the changing of individual words at the press conference or public comments from Jay Powell, if that was a full time job already, I don't know what to expect coming up, but we're certainly going to be looking at every little thing that Jay Powell and any FOMC or Fed head, as I know you like to call them

Chris Versace: That's right.

J.D. Durkin: because I think the considerations are that much more with an incoming administration.

How about you

Chris Versace: I think what you kind of talked about regarding budget reconciliation, it wasn't really something that I was thinking about, but I think the importance of it as we go forward. And again, as you pointed out, that despite many think is a mandate, by the Republicans, you know, coming out of the 2024 election that, you know, from a voting perspective on policy, not necessarily as as we might have thought.

So it bears in mind [00:32:00] that while there's a lot of enthusiasm for what might get done, uh, what actually gets done may not live up to expectations. We'll have to be careful. And as I think about that with a market, that's potentially moving higher on tax cuts regulatory reform, a lot of positive mo as we say There is always a little bit of room to be disappointed.

I will remain the prudent investor that I am over at the street pro portfolio and hopefully continue to steer folks in the right direction. That is our show today. Many thanks to JD Durkin for joining us. Be sure to catch him over at Public where he's again, interviewing a lot of movers and shakers, check out the Common Threads podcast.

And if you're lucky. He'll catch his insights as a CBS News contributor. I, of course, and Chris Versace you're looking for me, you can find me over at The Street Pro Portfolio. And folks, that is a wrap for 2024. We will see you with Lindsey Bell in [00:33:00] 2025.