Can Seasonal Patterns Be Trusted in 2025?

I had my parents here. I have my sister and her kids and family here. So it was busy and I'm kind of honestly ready to happy to be back to normal. I guess. How about you guys?

Bob: I had a really great time with my family in laws as well, too, a lot of kids around and a lot of food and our dog, Tony, just was the star of the show everywhere we went. So we went to a couple of different houses. So I like you, Lindsay, just kind of ready to get back to normal.

And [00:01:00] I'm interested to See more of these numbers for retail that we talked about last week about how the consumer is doing. And I'm looking for bargains to hopefully get out and do some shopping.

Lindsey Bell: I'm so behind on my shopping, man. I didn't do any holiday, like black Friday weekend shopping. Chris, what about

Chris Versace: Oh, come on. Really? I got an alert from USPS that I've got a raft of packages showing up today. So we got to get to today's conversation because if not, I got three dogs that are lose their mind when the postal man shows up. We can't have that. So with that folks we are going to have a very special conversation today, as I mentioned with the CEO of Hirsch Holdings.

That is the one, the only Jeff Hirsch publisher of the Stock Traders Almanac. We're going to talk about Jeff's views on the market, the importance of seasonal factors and much, much more trust me when I say you aren't going to want to miss this. We'll be right [00:02:00] back.

I gotta tell you, Bob and Lindsay, I am super excited today to talk to our guest. And I'm telling you this because I just sit back and I look at where we are coming off of the big Black Friday, Cyber Monday shopping weekend. We've had such a pronounced move higher in the stock market since we entered in November.

The economy is vibrant, strong, if you believe the Atlanta Fed's latest GDP Now model update. But some folks, saying the market's short term overbought. It's frothy. It's heady. I think we need someone to help us make sense of this. Who better than Jeff Hirsch, who's behind the Stock Traders Almanac. For folks who haven't heard of Jeff before, he's the CEO of Hirsch Holdings. the publisher of the Almanac Trader and the editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac. You can also find him surprisingly not only on X, but he's one of the few that I know who is making the [00:03:00] migration to Blue Sky or Blue Ski, whatever the hell you call it. And you can follow him at Almanac Trader. Jeff, I'm so proud and happy to welcome you on the program.

You and I have never met, so I'm very excited to get to know you. I know you know Bob and Lindsay rather well.

Jeffrey Hirsch: Well, thank you so much for that kind intro. I think you and I have spoken, or at least exchanged information ideas. Yeah, interesting time. Thrilled to be on. It is seasonality season. It's December. Everyone's talking about Santa Claus rally. I don't know, you're saying something about overbought. at my infectious intelligence sentiment looks like it's a little bit, few more bears than there had been recently. So,

Chris Versace: I, so I, I do some work at the street, as does Bob Lindsay is a, an alumni of that. So, I kind of pay attention to what, some of our brethren have to say, whether it's Doug Kas, Helene Meisler, Helene of course. Looking at the short term s and p oscillator. I think that's where she's saying that the market might be a little [00:04:00] near term overbought. I'm at other indicators out there. Citibank, panic, euphoria, flashing euphoria, CNN, fear, greed, and we've had like, a 6 percent move in the S& P 500 since we entered November, 7 percent for the NASDAQ.

So I can understand why some folks might be, Not bearish, but maybe cautious.

Jeffrey Hirsch: Oh sure, and you know, that sets up pretty

well in the calendar. Beginning of December tends to be a little bit weaker as tax loss selling kicks in and just, sort of the rest. But after November gains that we've seen the beginning of the best six months. So, the first few days of first, A handful or so are not fantastic until we get into the mid December period when the small caps kick in.

So we have a a market that's been up a lot. We had a lot of bullishness out there that's come off a little bit. I think that sets up, a contrary, indication of a turn there. But uh, you know, correction. Yeah, but not much. I'm thinking new highs. My, [00:05:00] forecast for 2024 that I made last December for 15 to 25 percent gains is in the bag already.

I've upped it, I think we're going to end up at 30 percent like on the S& P and NASDAQ. Only concern or my only wish this holiday season is for some significant new highs on a Russell to get some confirm out of the small caps. And we're getting into small cap season right here, which used to be the January effect.

So I don't smith the seasonal stuff I'm looking at right here.

Say Jeff,

Bob Lang: moving ahead now, here this year we could have, back to back 20% gains in the SP 500. The NASDAQ obviously 50. percent in 2023, up another 20%. What does the history tell us about the next year, about 2025 off of those really strong gains in the market, the prior two years.

Jeffrey Hirsch: Gains beget gains you know it doesn't mean another 20 percent gain, but double digits or low double digits are not possible. I've already forecasted 8 to 12% for [00:06:00] 2025. I'm starting to see the negative post election year comments coming out there. But, people like to go back into the old almanac data, which goes back to Andrew Jackson's time, 1833, the old cows commission stats. I'm sure Lindsay's got that book on her shelf. But,

Lindsey Bell: Not that one, Jeff. I'm waiting for you to sign it and send it to me.

Jeffrey Hirsch: I wouldn't put a mark in that book. That's. That's in plastic, it's a new world. Things have changed as I write in the 2025 almanac, the post election year edition, post election years. I've gotten a lot better since World War Two. And since 85, believe it or not, it's the best year of the four year cycle now, a slightly better percent change than a pre election year, the third year, but one less year of gain.

So, You we've seen things be more positive in the post election year and most of that negative four year cycle stuff concentrated in midterm year.

Chris Versace: So Jeff, for a fundamentalist, right? [00:07:00] When you're sitting there, you're saying, ah, 8 to 12 percent next year. What's giving you the comfort, the confidence in that. And as you do that, can you just kind of explain to folks what the Stock Traders Almanac is for those who may not be familiar with it?

Jeffrey Hirsch: The Stock Traders Almanac is now in its 58th consecutive annual edition. Same age as me my illustrious late was a legend we lost him a couple years ago about three, at the ripe old age of 98. So I was raised on this born bread, weaned on cycles, patterns, seasonality. He also taught me fundamental analysis and technical analysis. First, when I started working for him in the early days, out of college or, just when I came into the company.

First thing he taught me was price to sales ratio. Everything else is, manipulatable. The almanac is a. Basically his brainchild. He was working at a place called Indicator Digest back in the early sixties with my, his cousin, my godfather Sam Coslow. He wanted to take all of these cycles, patterns, indicators, and market stats and put [00:08:00] them together in a calendar format so we can keep track of the markets schedule along with his own.

Hence the almanac. It covers seasonal trades, different monthly patterns. The best six months not selling May and go away But you got to buy in October and get your portfolio sober to say Big proponent of four year cycle, sector seasonality The intraday trading patterns. I used to run the numbers for half hourly tick data out of the baron's lab pages with a little ruler and a red pen and an adding machine and graph paper. There's a thing I put out the super boom, which I forecasted the 38, 000 820 on the Dow back in 2010. And it's one of those interesting patterns that, that he covered, but a lot's changed, but a lot stayed the same.

We still see some of these intraday seasonal patterns still working. So it covers everything from intraday patterns to monthly seasonal patterns, quarterly patterns, options, expiration. So anyway, that's the almanac. But we also have the newsletter. Which [00:09:00] we give people guidance on with stock picks and ETFs trades.

But what we're looking at right now is you're asking me about why 8 to 12%. I don't know if you guys got a copy of it yet. I think we were trying to get one to you, but we have some different post election year seasonal patterns, all post election years. The fifth year of presidency, we had a unique election year.

We had, the second time in history, somebody running again after being ousted. We've got our aggregate cycle, which is, combination of all years, post election years and the 5th year of the decade which has another, different pattern there, so between all of those, historical, presentations, seasonal patterns, and with what we're seeing on the ground with, you were saying a strong economy. I've been the word resilient just to be a little bit we looked at Atlanta fed and, we have our five disciplines where it's fundamental, seasonal, fundamental, technical, monetary, and sentiment. We've got a lot of technical [00:10:00] confirmation and we've got some underlying fundamentals here, at least in, in the U S corporate, results economic results, nothing's perfect. So it all adds up to a continuation of the bull market. And with my super boom outlook looking for upwards of 60 some odd thousand on the Dow over the next, four to eight years or so I just finding it difficult to get bear.

So, there could be something that rocks things.

Chris Versace: The way we try to architect things are, it's, be mindful of, or at least I should say I, I shouldn't say the three of us. I've tried to zero in on these multi year structural tailwinds, but I try to be cognizant of, the landscape and the near term as well, right?

So, like, for example, you were saying how the first few days of December, may not be as strong. You have to wait for the small caps to kick in in the middle of December, you were saying. I'm sitting here going, Wow, we're about to get some potential ISM services data that could show the services economy being really strong.

That could take that Atlanta Fed GDP now 3. 2 percent number, move it even higher. [00:11:00] And if we get that, geez, what's the risk to the delivering that rate cut the market expects, later this month. That's kind of where I'm coming from.

Jeffrey Hirsch: I hope they don't deliver it personally, but that's my opinion and assessment. think we don't need it.

Chris Versace: Do you think

they need to deliver it? Or do you think they should wait given the 75 basis points and cuts they already delivered?

Jeffrey Hirsch: Twofold answer. I think they need, I think they need to do it for their own to save face because they said they were going to do it pretty much, but I don't think they need to and they should wait for more data. They did, 50 out of the blocks. Things are still 20 to 30 percent more expensive than they were a few years ago. We all know that's not going to change. It's not going to come down. It'll stop going up and level, but. People forget we didn't have inflation for a decade, honestly, for prices. So, I don't think they need to cut. If I was going to bet, I'd probably say they will, but it's not a, it's not action I really want to take.

Bob Lang: I would say that I agree with you there. And I think the one thing that the fed is worried about is it, [00:12:00] is the invisible man here. They're afraid of some sort of deflationary cycle getting started. And that they're going to have to cut, get into some, rate cutting mode with a, with reckless abandon before the deflation. Remember we saw that back in when Janet Yellen and I think that's certainly a worry for them, but, I'm kind of in the same camp as you. Right. Chris and I've talked about this a lot and we think that, at some point in time, they have to stop cutting interest rates because they're going to get some to some neutral rate, which I don't think they know where it is.

Lindsey Bell: what I would say too is I think that the market is becoming a little more comfortable with the fact that the neutral rate is higher than historically

been. Even the Fed every time we get the dot plot, they are increasing their view of the neutral rate. And so I think that the market and the Fed are both adjusting to that.

But I think the question is, and we kind of debated this, was it earlier this year or maybe it was last year, do we get to a point where. Okay. The fed is in a [00:13:00] rate cutting cycle, which the market has favored all year long. Is there a point. People are talking about a pause and I'm with you all that I think we don't really need a cut in December, but do we get to a point where we have to start thinking about an increase in rates, even if

Chris Versace: that, Lindsay? Are you saying

Jeffrey Hirsch: Okay,

Lindsey Bell: yes, inflation does worry me, I don't see deflation on the horizon. I mean, deflation is obviously like Jeff said, a very rare thing. So I don't know. That's one thing though. That worries me, but I also think that if we're getting a rate increase, it's because the economy is doing so well.

Corporations are doing well and the consumer is doing too. So I don't that's just one about.

Chris Versace: think correct. Correct me if I'm wrong, Jeff. Bob. I think the Fed's goal is to continue to extend the economic cycle, right? And would say that what we saw yesterday on the prices front when the I. S. M. Manufacturing prices component that came [00:14:00] in way less than what people were looking for. I think the consensus was around a 55 number up from 54 in October, and it was 50.

2. I mean, that's a big drop. But on the other hand, the manufacturing economy has been contracting, so I could see all right, softer prices there. So to me, the bigger question is, what do we get with the ISM services data for November? And what does that say about prices? That's going to be more important in my book.

Lindsey Bell: I want to talk a little more about your small cap call, but because it's seasonally, like, you're looking at the seasonality, you're saying that in mid December, this is when the small caps get strong, and we're like, about to, have we broken through yet?

We got a breakthrough on the Russell 2000, we're looking to make the the first All time high and out for many years.

Jeffrey Hirsch: over 3 years, it was November 8th, 21, I think we still haven't closed above.

Lindsey Bell: Okay. And so if we do close above, do you need, how much confirmation do you need that that trend [00:15:00] is intact?

Jeffrey Hirsch: I mean, you know technical analysis is a little bit of an art. So if it hits and closes above and then and falls out, that's not going to be great. If it does a little, banner or flag or whatever one of those little patterns are and then goes back up, you're going to have a little hindsight.

Lindsey Bell: And we were just talking about like how interest rates could remain elevated or the neutral rate could elevated.

Jeffrey Hirsch: Let's go back everyone second. I the CPI, the old school inflation rate. Last time I ran an average back to post World War II was about 3%. We are below that. So I'm not sure what more neutral they're going to get. I mean, my older brother always tells me about when he bought his first condo back in the eighties, it was like, 15 percent interest rate on his mortgage. I mean, let's get real. The rates are pretty historically okay. They're not dirt cheap like we all had, back in, in whatever, 2020 when we refinanced, during COVID, but you're [00:16:00] not going to get that. That's a once in a generation, maybe, situation, but, so anyway, inflation, think is, it's quite historically, low, or at least manageable, where parts are still up, but the rate of inflation is okay.

Anyway, back to this, the small caps. The seasonal move. There's something used to be called the January effect. People will be talking about it down in Sarasota. We're there at the Money show. What we've seen and what Yale and I discovered over the years is that small cap effect which used to be small caps outperformed large caps in January really starts in mid December that mid December point we're talking about. You can see it on some of the charts I've posted out there. And, if it doesn't happen, there's another thing with seasonal patterns and become indicators when they don't happen. If we don't like the Santa Claus rally that Yale invented. If you don't get the Santa Claus rally, that's a warning sign. If we don't get a small cap rally in the last couple of weeks, December into mid January, that'll be something we'll be concerned about maybe even more than the actual [00:17:00] level of breaking a new high.

It's just, if we don't see that, the annual, buying spree I'll be concerned. And then we, run into our January indicator trifecta, the Santa Claus rally, the first five days of January barometer, all based on the SMP. So we'll be looking at that in conjunction with the small cap move as well as, what's going on in some of the fundamentals and technicals, but everything I see, is bullish save what Chris was talking about earlier about a little overboard here, a little correction in early December. It's just. I think that one of the good seasonal indications to me was that mid November dip that everyone thought of as the sell off, or called it the sell off of the post election rally, right? Well, look at the seasonal November chart. There just tends to be a little bit of a dip ahead of Thanksgiving, which is that Thanksgiving trade that we like to talk about in the Almanac and, when we're out there and, social media and stuff.

So that's set up nicely. That's confirming seasonals are still, working. You guys remember Edson Gould [00:18:00] findings and forecasts, the old guy, remember I grew up with this stuff. So he, his quote was that if stocks don't rally during their bullish seasonal period, there are other forces that are stronger. And when that period ends, they will really have their say. So if we don't, get that seasonal rally. There's something else going on. Whereas on the inverse of that is that we don't get the sell off like we didn't get this year in September, September, October. That's there's some more bullish forces that are stronger than seasonality underlying there.

So that's where I think we're at.

Lindsey Bell: That's really interesting and I wanted to ask you that you like preempted my question because I was looking at, I love your seasonal work and Stovall, but for a long time, he and I are obviously huge fans. And of the almanac and all that you do, but I was looking at the monthly stuff and like September was, well, September, I guess, no, September was way stronger than expected month of the year.

October was a little bit worse than expected, and then November was an [00:19:00] outstanding month. So it has been, together, a much better than seasonally projected type of period.

Jeffrey Hirsch: call this a bull market. I

Lindsey Bell: Yeah, that's a good way to put it, right?

I

Jeffrey Hirsch: mean, it is. There's a lot going on. This AI thing, I'll circle back to my Superboom forecast, but this AI thing is what I call the culturally enabling paradigm shifting technology that changes the world, changes everyone's lives. And it's just starting. I mean, back when I was converting the paper spreadsheets to Excel for DOS and Windows 3.

1. That was the, in the that was of a point. I think we're at

Chris Versace: Lindsey, uh for you and some others out there, DOS, disk operating system, preceded Windows, and it was a command line system. None of this graphical user interface nonsense.

Lindsey Bell: I that all was word soup to me.

Bob Lang: So Jeff, I was also going to suggest about one of the other [00:20:00] calendar anecdotes, right. Is we're right in the middle, right, right at the start of this best six months of the year. Already one month in and that first month, I mean, is it possible that a lot of that good performance jump that we expect to see between November and the end of April was pulled up?

I mean, is it, did we pull it up or do you think we could just continue on with these ridiculous. I

Jeffrey Hirsch: I don't think we're going to get the continuing, levels of magnitudes of gains like we had in November, but I'm expecting a few more percent here in December. January, used to be. Much better. We've seen some profit taking in January. We could see a little bit of dip there I write the forecast for the almanac back in June, and then we're going to do our newsletter one just before Christmas to update everything. But we're looking for a bit of a pullback based upon the historical patterns in the first quarter and the third quarter of post election year. So, yeah, It may not take away from the whole, best six months performance, but there's going to be some pauses.

There'll be some pullbacks. We've got [00:21:00] that February's that week link in the best six months. You got the ides of March, which tend to have some, I mean, it's a cute little saying, cause you got Caesar there and everything. And just saw gladiator the movies, gladiator too.

as good as the first one.

Chris Versace: Not as good as the first one.

Jeffrey Hirsch: No, definitely not. But the Ides of March for the stock market is important because you got the end of the 1st quarter and that's like, institutions drive most of these patterns and they're very quarterly based. So that 1st quarter is a big deal.

Bob Lang: wanted to just to look back a little bit to help us look forward. And let's say we do have another positive month here in December to end the year, this will be 11 positive months in the year of 2024 at 11 out of 12 I think April was the only down

Jeffrey Hirsch: Yep, it's

Bob Lang: Donald Trump's first. Term, right? You remember 2017 every single month was up in 2017. So does that get you, is that what's getting you [00:22:00] excited here about the opportunity, the potential to, to go higher in 2025?

Jeffrey Hirsch: it's definitely adding. I'm looking for the page of the almanac here. It's definitely adding to my outlook. And I have we have all the charts of post election years. Right here on page. Oh, what is it 20 something? I don't know. Anyway, it's pretty solid. Here it is.

Bob Lang: I want to say 2017 was the first and only year that the stock market SP500 was up every single month in the calendar year. Is that, does that sound right to you? That's Yeah,

Jeffrey Hirsch: that but it sounds like it could have been the case and I could look it up here. But you're saying it, it's probably true, but it's definitely worth looking at because adds to the whole post election year, improvement I was talking about earlier. I mean, it's part of it. The reason the market rallied and the reason the prospects for for 2025 are bullish partially is the fact that we're [00:23:00] looking at some pro business deregulatory type of policy, initiatives and agendas for the year. There could be some issues with tariffs and inflation.

I mean, we're talking about the art of the deal guy. I think that's some negotiating tactics. And the way he operates, but 2017, as you pointed out there, Bob was the way it was because of all of the business stuff that got initiated.

Chris Versace: So, so Jeff, you seem very bulls up, I think is a fair way to say it. You've got your super boom and longer term forecast, but when you look at these seasonal patterns let's say over the next, six months, 12 months, something like that. What would give you pause, right, that tell, that would say, oh, this is not panning out the way I thought? Are there factors that, you would be willing to share that might say,

Jeffrey Hirsch: Sure. I mean, other than the fundamental stuff and technical substance, I'm the seasonality, you know, person here, first thing would be [00:24:00] the small caps, not making a new high and not rallying like they should during the small cap effect or the January effect. Santa Claus fails to call, bears may come to broaden wall Yale's line right out of the page 116 of the Stock Traders Almanac. First five days down January barometer down for much on your mind we get a negative January indicator trifecta.

That's not good. So that's where I start to worry and I'll start to adjust my forecast. Without it, we start seeing some inflation picking up. We've seen the Fed hiking rates that sort of thing. With inflation issues or even if they have to, make some dramatic cut because the economy is falling apart, those are the kinds of things that we're looking at. Right now, I don't see that using the longer term outlook, and again, you going back to the best six months, if we don't get a positive best six months, that's a negative indication.

That means that there are other forces that are more powerful that are overriding the seasonals. And I'm talking October 31st through, April 30th, the whole span, [00:25:00] not a negative month, not a, a pullback, not a 10% correction, but the whole period being down. But the midterm election year pattern. I'm not always a bull. We were bearish in 22 at the outset and piled onto it. And then when everyone was freaking out in October of 2022, we dialed up some Yale Hirsch and the bear killer bargain month stuff that he wrote in the 69 almanac. The sentiment was negative and everyone was, throwing in the towel and that's the typical midterm bear market bottom and we had it. There was very few people that were bullish back then. And, the four year cycle has been so on point since COVID. I mean, it's really tracked very closely, you guys know, and you know, we can illustrate that. But my concern is that there's going to come a point where it doesn't continue to track. These things happened in the late 90s. It was, everything was straight up. There was no downs. So I'm leery for something happening [00:26:00] here, but at this point it looks like the bull market goes on and we'll probably end up getting a, fair market, variety, 20, 30 percent one in sometime in 2026.

Chris Versace: So, so, Jeff, that's the market. But you also said you had this newsletter where you talk stocks, ETFs and things like that. Are there particular sectors that you're warming up to? Not necessarily small caps per se, market cap irrespective, are there any, sectors that you're, like I said, feeling a little more comfortable with or think have better prospects?

Jeffrey Hirsch: We like the technology sector for the rest of whatever. I own some biotech that got over sold, I think because of RFK and some of the healthcare stuff. Energy is probably going to get a little bit of a um, you know, like the XLE type sector stocks because of the, increased drill baby drill type mentality with the Trump administration.

I think that sets those two up for being a little over sold. I doubled down on my IBB position personally, because [00:27:00] it got knocked off when I said, biotech is kind of part of the future. It definitely needs to get reeled in a little bit. There's a little bit of. Nepotism and cahoots between government and pharmaceutical industry, as we all know, but I think there's a good value there. So, I mean, other than the seasonal trading, I think those are a couple that presented themselves. I'm looking for the small caps to show us something, though,

Lindsey Bell: We're going to be keeping our eyes on those small caps for sure. One other thing too. I'm just curious. I mean, we know that it seems like the cycles between bull and bear market are kind of, at least from bear to bull market, are seem to be shortening, right?

Is that what your work is showing? Or I don't know if there's any insights that you have that you want to highlight on that.

Jeffrey Hirsch: think that's an observation. We've seen that over the years that bear markets are shorter and shallower as a rule, we've seen a lot of short ones over the past. The COVID bear market was a perfect example of [00:28:00] that. We do have a page on that in the Almanac in the back, and you can see the time frames, it's full of bear markets since 1900 for the Dow and 30 since for the S& P and then the 70s for NASDAQ.

And yeah, those bear markets are fewer and farther between and shorter and less steep. We've gotten better at this.

Bob Lang: And don't you think a reason for that would be since 1987, that Fed put that's been in place that people are scared that they don't want to get too bearish because they're afraid that the Fed is going to step in there and start dumping liquidity in the market?

Jeffrey Hirsch: Yeah, I think that as well as the circuit breakers and collars and mechanical, systemic were put in place to help as well.

Bob Lang: Interesting.

Chris Versace: right. Jeff, before we get out of here I want to thank you for your time. Very fascinating, insightful. I what's the expression? The trend is your friend. The seasonality is your friend and something to be mindful of. So I think folks should really take a hard look at [00:29:00] what you've got in the almanac.

If folks want to get the almanac, where can they go?

Jeffrey Hirsch: Well, I mean, it's available wherever books are sold, Amazon, whatever. I don't sell it on my website if I sell the newsletter, but if you want to get a free copy of the Almanac, subscribe to the newsletter at stocktradersalmanac. com. I there's still a cyber Monday or holiday rate up there.

Holiday sale thing available. it's pretty much where you can get everything. Most

Chris Versace: Excellent. Excellent. Well, I know I think some of our team will be down in Sarasota, Florida. Like you mentioned at the money show, we'll be making sure they follow up with you and see if anything changes.

Jeffrey Hirsch: definitely look forward to seeing you guys down there.

Chris Versace: All right. Thank you, Jeff.

 

Chris Versace: All right, Bob and Lindsay, I'm pretty sure I am new to Jeff, not having really conversed with him quite a bit or anywhere near as much as I think the two of you have. I found that conversation very interesting because he brings to bear some things that sometimes I have to admit I don't [00:30:00] necessarily contemplate that's the seasonal trend, the seasonal factors that are there.

And I'm really happy that I am getting a copy of the Stock Traders Almanac. I think once we finish this three week spurt here and we enter the back to back holiday weeks of Christmas and New Year's, I might actually put my feet up by the fire. And thumb through the Stock Traders Almanac, because it sounds like there's a lot, there's a lot of pearls of wisdom that I could benefit from as an investor. what did you guys think of our conversation with Jeff?

Bob Lang: I would say that first of all, Chris, don't put your feet in the fire. But I find the Almanac interesting. I use the Almanac every single day. It's a, it's a fantastic tool for me because it actually shows you in print what sentiment is is actually like and and what I thought about as we talked with Jeff today is, you know, this, there's a lot of FOMO out there, which is a fear of missing out. A lot of people out there who want to get back into the markets are waiting for a moment where they can see [00:31:00] the markets pull back and it's just not happening.

And and the almanac is a way of freezing some of that sentiment telling you how people are feeling and thinking at a moment in time. This is what's so important about this presidential cycle. A good friend of mine, Tom McClellan, uses this as well too. The presidential cycle, it is so accurate, it is so informative about predicting where markets are going to be.

So I, from my, from my perspective, I thought it was extremely valuable for him to share that information.

Chris Versace: So Bob, we've been friends for a long time and now I'm pretty mad that you have never for Christmas given me a Stock Traders Almanac in the past. How dare you? Lindsay,

Bob Lang: Well, now, well, now you have, now you have you know, Jeff's email address and, and he's, he's probably on your speed dial, right? So he'll be sending you probably sending an almanac every year for the rest of your life.

Chris Versace: see about that.

Lindsey Bell: I am. surprised Bob hasn't sent you on because it's packaged so nicely. I wish I had one, right? It's on my bookshelf up over there, but it's like, it's this big ringed [00:32:00] book and it's just packaged really nice. Each page is very clear and easy to read. And there's really some great quotes from some of the legendary investors in the world that are also included.

So it's a

It is a great gift, I guess I would say.

Chris Versace: I firmly have the fear of missing out now. This is not fair. I'm going to to get one of these and report back. All right. Well, I know we've got a couple more podcasts that we've got to tape before we take a little break for the year end holidays. But we'll leave today's episode there and we would say folks, we will be back with you soon.

Please be sure to tune in. We always like discussing what we're seeing unfold in the market, various sectors, and of course the witty banter. And I look forward to Bob's next stock traders almanac saying, who knows what it will be? Tune in next time. We will find out together.

CV: I gotta tell you, Bob and Lindsay, I am super [00:33:00] excited today to talk to our guest. And I'm telling you this because I just sit back and I look at where we are. Uh, coming off of the big black friday cyber monday

Jeffrey Hirsch: Silence. Silence. Silence.

CV: who's behind the Stock Traders Almanac for folks who haven't heard of Jeff before.

He's the CEO of Hirsch Holdings, the publisher of the Almanac Trader and the editor of the Stock Traders Almanac. You can also find him surprisingly not only on X, but he's one of the few that I know who is making the migration to blue sky or blue ski, whatever the hell you call it. And you can follow him at [00:34:00] Almanac Trader. Uh, Jeff, I'm so proud and happy to welcome you on the program. You and I have never met, so I'm very

Jeffrey Hirsch: Okay,

CV: to get to know you. But I know you know Bob and Lindsay rather well.

Jeffrey Hirsch: well, um, thank you so much for that kind intro. I think you and I have spoken or at least exchanged, uh, information ideas. Um, yeah, interesting time thrilled to be on. Um, it is. Seasonality season, you know, it's December. Everyone's talking about Santa Claus rally. Um, I don't know you're saying something about overbought Looking at my adventurous intelligence, uh sentiment looks like it's a little bit, you know, a few more bears than there had been recently.

So,

CV: Well, you know, so I do some work at the street, as does Bob. Lindsay is an alumni of that. So, you know, I kind of pay attention to what, you know, some of our brethren have to say, whether it's Doug Cass, Helene Meisler, Helene, of course, uh, you know, looking at the [00:35:00] short term SMP oscillator, I think that's where she's saying that the market might be a little near term overbought.

I, I, I'm looking at other indicators out there, uh, Citibank panic, euphoria, flashing euphoria, you know, CNN, fear, greed, you know, greed, you know, and, and we've had like, you know, a 6 percent move in the SMP 500 since we entered November 7 percent for the NASDAQ. So I, I can understand why some folks might be not bearish, but maybe cautious.

Jeffrey Hirsch: Well, sure and you know that um sets up pretty well in the calendar beginning of december Tends to be a little bit weaker as tax tax loss selling kicks in and just you know You know, sort of the rest, but after, uh, you know, November gains that we've seen at the beginning of the next 6 months. So, um, you know, the 1st, few days of September 1st, you know.

A handful or so are not are not fantastic until we get into the mid December period when the small caps kick in. So we have a market that's been up a lot. [00:36:00] We've got some, you know, we had a lot of bullishness out there. That's come off a little bit. I think that that sets up, you know, a contrary, you know, indication of a turn there.

But, uh, you know, correction. Yeah, but not much. I'm thinking new highs. My, my forecast for 2024 that I made last December for 15 to 25 percent gains is, is in the bag already. I've upped it. You know, I think we're going to end up at 30 percent like on the SMP and NASDAQ. Um, my only concern or my only wish, uh, this holiday season is for some, some significant new highs on the Russell to get some firm out of the small caps.

And, um, you know, we get into small cap season right here, which used to be the giant effect. So I don't smith the seasonal stuff. I'm looking at right here.

Bob: Say, say Jeff. Say I was gonna, men I was gonna ask you moving ahead now, here, this, this year we could have, you know, back to back 20% gains in the SP 500. The, [00:37:00] uh, NASDAQ obviously of 50. Percent in 20, in 23? Nope, another 20%. What, what does the history tell us about the, the next year, about 2025 off of, uh, those really strong gains, um, in the market, the, the prior two years.

Jeffrey Hirsch: Gains begins, you know, it doesn't I don't. I don't it doesn't mean another 20 percent gain, but double digits or low double digits are not possible. I've already forecasted 8 to 12 percent for 2025. I'm starting to see the negative post election year. Comments coming out there, but, you know, people like to go back.

Into the old almanac data, which goes back to Andrew Jackson's time, 1833, the old cows commission stats. Um, sure. Lindsay's got that book on her shelf. Um, but, um,

Lindsey Bell: that one, Jeff, you know, I'm waiting for you to sign it and send it to me.

Jeffrey Hirsch: Oh, I wouldn't put a mark in that book. That's that's.

CV: Okay.

Jeffrey Hirsch: That's in [00:38:00] plastic, but um, uh, you know, it's a new world. Um, things have changed as I write in the 2025 almanac, the post election year edition. Um, post election years have gotten a lot better since World War II. Uh, no, I've got a little coffee issue there.

Lindsey Bell: Sorry.

Jeffrey Hirsch: and since 85, believe it or not, it's the best year of the four year cycle now. Slightly better percent change than the pre election year, the third year, but one less year of gain. So, um, you, we've seen, uh, you know, things be more positive in the post election year. And most of that negative four year cycle stuff concentrated in midterm year.

So yeah,

CV: So, Jeff, for a fundamentalist, right, when you're sitting there, you're saying, ah, 8 to 12 percent next year, how, how, what's giving you the comfort, the confidence in that? And as you do that, can you just kind of explain to folks, What the stock traders almanac is for those who may not be familiar with it.[00:39:00]

Jeffrey Hirsch: the stock traders almanac 58th consecutive annual edition. Same age as me. Uh, my illustrious late father,

CV: how did you write this when you were a wee little lad

Jeffrey Hirsch: I wrote it in uniro the 1st edition.

CV: Silence.

Jeffrey Hirsch: Uh, and now my

Lindsey Bell: party

Jeffrey Hirsch: father, you know, was a legend. Um, we lost him a couple of years ago, but 3 at the ripe old age of 98. Um, so I was raised on this born bread weaned. On cycles, parents, he's now, he also taught me fundamental analysis and technical analysis. First when I started working for him in the early days, you know, at a outta college or, you know, just, just when I, when I came into the company, first thing he taught me was price to sales ratio.

Everything else is, you know, manipula, manipulable, um, but the Almanac is a, basically his brainchild. He was working at a place called Indicator Digest back in the early sixties, uh, with [00:40:00] my, his cousin, my godfather, uh, Sam Colo. Um, and they, um. You know, it was, he wanted to take all of these cycles, patterns, indicators, and market stats and put them together in a calendar format so he could keep track of the market's schedule along with his own, hence the almanac.

Um, it covers seasonal trades, different monthly patterns, the best six months, not sell and may go away, but you got to buy in October and get your portfolio sober, as I like to say. Big component of

CV: [00:41:00] Um,

Jeffrey Hirsch: patterns that, that he covered, but, um, you know, a lot's changed, but a lot stayed the same.

We still see some of these intraday seasonal patterns still working. Um, so it covers everything from, um, intraday patterns to monthly seasonal patterns, quarterly patterns, options, expiration. So anyway, that's the um, but we also have the newsletter. Which we give people guidance on with stock picks and ETFs, um, trades.

Uh, but, um,

CV: Oh,

Jeffrey Hirsch: Um, I don't know if you guys got a copy of it yet. I think we were trying to get 1 to you, but we have some, uh, different. Post election seasonal patterns, all post election years. Um, the fifth year of presidency, we had a unique election year.

We had, you know, the second time in history, somebody running again after being ousted. Uh, we've got our aggregate cycle, which is, you know, [00:42:00] combination of all years post-election years, and, um, uh, the fifth year of the decade, uh, which has another different pattern there. So between all of those, you know, historical ram, you know, presentations, seasonal patterns, and with what we're seeing on the ground with.

You were saying a strong economy. I've been using the word resilient, um, just to be a little bit, uh, uh, you know, we look at Atlanta fed and, you know, we have our, our five disciplines where it's fundamental, seasonal, fundamental, technical, monetary, and sentiment, um, we've got a lot of, uh, technical confirmation and we've got some underlying fundamentals here, at least in, in the, in the U S, um, you know, corporate, you know, results, uh, um, economic results, nothing's perfect.

Um, so it all adds up to a continuation of the bull market and, um, you know, with my super boom outlook, uh, looking for [00:43:00] upwards of 60 some odd thousand on the Dow over the next, you know, 48, 48 years or so, uh, I just finding it difficult to get fair. So, you know, there could be something that rocks things.

Um,

CV: Well,

Jeffrey Hirsch: I think

CV: so the you know, the way we try to architect things are it's you know, be mindful of or at least I should say I I shouldn't say the three of us. I, I've tried to zero in on these multi year structural tailwinds, but I try to be. Cognizant of, you know, the landscape in the near term as well. Right?

So like, for example, you were saying how the first few days of December, you know, may not be as strong. You have to wait for the small caps to kick in in the middle of December. You were saying, I'm sitting here going, wow, we're about to get some potential ISM services data that could show the services economy being really strong.

That could take that Atlanta fed GDP now 3. 2 percent number, move it even higher. And if we get that, jeez, what's the risk to the Fed delivering that rate cut the market expects, [00:44:00] you know, later this month? So that's, that's kind of where I'm coming from.

Jeffrey Hirsch: I hope they don't deliver it personally. But that's my opinion and assessment. I think, I think we don't need it. The inflation stuff.

CV: they need, I'm sorry to talk over you Jeff, do you

Jeffrey Hirsch: Okay,

CV: do you think they need to deliver it? Or do you think should wait given the 75 basis points and cuts they already delivered?

Jeffrey Hirsch: twofold answer. I think they need, I think they need to do it for, for their own to save face because they said they were going to do it pretty much. But I don't think they need to and they should wait for more data. They, they did 50 out of the blocks, um, you know, things are still 20 to 30 percent more expensive than they were a few years ago.

Um, we all know that that's not going to change. It's not going to come down. It'll stop going up and level. But people forget we didn't have inflation for a decade, honestly, for prices. So, you know, um, I don't think they need to cut if I was going to bet. I'd probably say they will, but it's not it's not a it's not action.

I really want to take, [00:45:00] um,

Bob: So, Jeff, I would say that I agree with you there. And I think the one thing that the Fed is is worried about is it is the invisible man here. They're afraid of some sort of deflationary cycle getting started and that they're going to have to, Cut, you know, get into some, you know, rate cutting mode, um, uh, with a, with reckless abandon before the, uh, before the deflation.

Remember we saw that back in, uh, um, when Janet Yellen and then towards the

Jeffrey Hirsch: 2018.

Bob: um, uh, Chairman, uh, so I think that's, you know, I think that's certainly, uh, a worry for them, but, you know, I, I'm, I'm, I'm kind of in the same camp as you. I, and I've talked about this a lot and we think that, you know, at, at some point in time, they have to stop cutting interest rates because they're going to get some to some neutral rate, which I don't think they know where it is.

Lindsey Bell: Well, do you think that what I would say, too, is I think that the market is becoming a little more comfortable with the fact that the neutral rate is probably higher than [00:46:00] historically it has been even the Fed every every time we get the dot plot, they are increasing their view of the neutral rate. Um, and so I think that the market and the Fed are both adjusting to that. But I think the question is, and we,

Jeffrey Hirsch: Okay. Okay.

Lindsey Bell: in December. But do we get to a point where we have to start thinking about an increase in rates?

CV: Now,

Lindsey Bell: Even if I,

CV: that, Lindsay? Are you saying that because of the sticky inflation that you've been calling out or something else?

Lindsey Bell: yes, inflation does worry me. I don't see deflation on the, on the horizon. Um, I mean, deflation is obviously, like Jeff said, a very rare thing. So I don't know. That's one thing that, that worries me, but I also think that if we're getting a rate increase, it's [00:47:00] because the, the economy is doing so well.

Corporations are doing well, and the consumer is doing well too. So, I don't know. That's, that's just one thing I worry about.

CV: think, correct me if I'm wrong, Jeff, Bob. I think the Fed's goal is to continue to extend the economic cycle. Right. And I would say that what we saw yesterday on the prices front when the ISM manufacturing prices component that came in way less than what people were looking for. I think the consensus was around a 55 number up from 54 in October.

And it was 50. 2. I mean, that's a big number. Big, big drop. But on the other hand, the manufacturing economy has been contracting so I could see all right, softer prices there. So to me, the bigger question is, what do we get with the ISM services data for November? And what does that say about prices? That's going to be more important in my book.

Lindsey Bell: All right. Well then I wanna take it back. I was gonna say, Jeff, I wanna talk a little more about your small cap call, but because it's [00:48:00] seasonally like. You're looking at the seasonality. You're saying that in mid December, this is when the small caps get strong. And we're like about to have, we've broken through yet.

Uh, you know, we got a break on the Russell 2000. We're looking to make the first all time high and I'll remember many years.

Jeffrey Hirsch: Over three years, it was November 8th, 21. I think we still have, we still haven't closed the ball

Lindsey Bell: Okay.

Jeffrey Hirsch: as far as I can remember.

Lindsey Bell: close above, do you need, how much confirmation do you need that that trend is

Jeffrey Hirsch: I mean, you know, technical analysis is a little bit of an art. Okay. Um, so if it hits and closes above and then and falls out, that's not going to be great. If it does a little, you know banner or flag or whatever one of those those little patterns are and then goes back up You know, you're you're gonna have to have a little hindsight.

You're gonna have to use a little hindsight until you know, but

Lindsey Bell: and we were just talking about like how interest rates could [00:49:00] remain elevated or the neutral rate is

Jeffrey Hirsch: so Let's go back to that for one second.

Lindsey Bell: all

Jeffrey Hirsch: the cpi the old school inflation rate Um last time I ran an average back to post world war two was about three percent We are below that so i'm not sure what more neutral they're they're gonna get I mean You You know, my older brother always tells me about when he bought his first condo back in the eighties.

It was like, you know, 15 percent interest rate on his mortgage. You know, I mean, let's get real. The rates are pretty historically. Okay. They're not dirt cheap. Like we all had, you know, back in, in, in whatever, 2020, when we refinanced, you know, during COVID, but, um, you're not going to get that. That's a once in a generation, maybe situation, but so anyway, inflation, I think is, is.

It's quite historically, you know, low, or at least manageable parts are still up, but the rate of inflation is okay. Anyway, back to this, the small caps, [00:50:00] the seasonal move. There's something used to be called the January effect. People will be talking about it, um, down in, in, in, In Sarasota, when we're down there at the Marty show, I don't know if I can say that here, but, um,

CV: Yep. Yep.

Jeffrey Hirsch: you know, we have a couple of page.

Lindsey Bell: fans of the money show.

Jeffrey Hirsch: Oh, I know, I know, I think I think our buddy, uh, a little bit the January effect. You think it's, you know, it's, it's kicking. However, what we've seen and what Yale and I discovered over the years is that that small cap effect. Uh, which used to be small caps outperformed large caps in January really starts in mid December that mid December point we're talking about.

You can see it on on some of the charts. I've posted out there. Um, and you know, if it doesn't happen, there's another thing with seasonal patterns and they become indicators when they don't happen. You know, if we don't like the Santa Claus rally that yell invented, if you don't get the Santa Claus rally, that's a warning sign.

If we don't get a small cap rally in the last couple of weeks, December [00:51:00] into mid January. You know, that'll be something we'll be concerned about. Maybe even more than the actual level of breaking a new high. It's just if we don't see that annual, you know, buying spree, I'll be concerned. And then we, you know, we run into our January indicator trifecta, the Santa Claus reality, the first five days of January barometer, all based on the S& P.

So we'll be looking at that in conjunction with the small cap move. Um, as well as, you know, uh, what's going on in some of the, the, the, the fundamentals and technicals, but everything I see, you know, is, is, is bullish, uh, save what Chris was talking about earlier about a little overbought here, a little correction in early December.

Um, you know, it's just, I think that the, one of the good seasonal indications to me was that mid to set that mid November dip that everyone thought of as the sell off. Or called it the sell off of the post election rally, right? Well, look at the seasonal november chart There's this tends to be a little bit of a dip ahead [00:52:00] of thanksgiving Which is that thanksgiving trade that we we like to talk about in the almanac and you know And when we out there in the and um, you know social media and stuff So that's set up nicely that's confirming seasonals are still, you know working Um, you guys remember, uh edson gould Findings and forecasts, the old guy, maybe before I remember I grew up with this stuff.

So he, he, his quote was that if stocks don't rally during their bullish seasonal period, there are other forces that are stronger. And when that period ends, they will really have their say. So if we don't, you know, get that seasonal rally, there's something else going on. Whereas on the inverse of that is that we don't get the sell off like we didn't get this year in September, you're on September, October, that's.

There's some more bullish forces that are stronger than seasonality underlying there. So that's where I think we're at.

Bob: Yeah.

Lindsey Bell: Really interesting. And I wanted to ask you that you like preempted my question because I was looking at, I love your seasonal work and you know, Sam [00:53:00] Stovall, but for a long time, he and I are obviously huge fans, um, and of the almanac and all that you do, but I was looking at the monthly stuff and like September was, well, September, I guess, no, September was way stronger than expected worst

Jeffrey Hirsch: Yeah,

Lindsey Bell: year. October was a

Jeffrey Hirsch: early.

Lindsey Bell: little bit worse than expected, and then November was an outstanding month, so it has been, a much better, um, than seasonally projected type of period.

Jeffrey Hirsch: We call this a bull market. I

Lindsey Bell: Yeah, that's a good way to put it, right?

Jeffrey Hirsch: mean, it is. There's a lot going on. This AI thing, you know, I'll circle back to my supermoon forecast, but this AI thing is what I call the culturally enabling paradigm shifting technology that changes the world, changes everyone's lives. And it's just starting. I mean, you know, back when I was converting the paper spreadsheets to Excel for DOS and Windows 3.

1, you [00:54:00] know, that was kind of the, you know, in the early 90s, that was sort of a similar point. I think we're at where they are. Yeah,

CV: there, DOS disk operating system preceded Windows and it was a command line system. None of this graphical user interface nonsense,

Lindsey Bell: mean, that all was word soup to me.

Bob: So I, um, so, so Jeff, I was going to, um, also going to, uh, suggest about one of the other, uh, other calendar anecdotes, right? Is we're right in the middle, right, right at the start of this, um, best six months of the year. We're already one month in and that, that first month, I mean, it, is it possible that a lot of that good performance, Jeff, that we expect to see between November and the end of April was pulled up or I mean, is it, did we, did we pull it up or, or do you think, um, we could just continue on with [00:55:00] these, um,

Jeffrey Hirsch: it's possible. I mean, I don't think we're going to get the continuing levels of magnitudes of games like we had in November, but. I'm expecting a few more percent here in December. Um, January, you know, used to be much better. We've seen some profit taking in January. We could see a little bit of dip there in my, in my early forecast.

You know, I write the forecast for the almanac back in June, and then we're going to do our newsletter one just before Christmas to update everything. But, um, we're looking for a bit of a pullback based upon the historical patterns in the first quarter and the third quarter of, of post election year. So it may not take away from the whole You know, best six months performance, but, um, there's going to be some pauses.

There'll be some pullbacks. We got the February's that week link in the best six months. Um, you know, you got the eyes of March, which. Tend to have some I mean, it's it's a cute little saying because you got caesar there and everything and I just saw gladiator in the movies gladiator too Not as crazy [00:56:00] the first one.

CV: one, not as good as the first one.

Jeffrey Hirsch: No, definitely not. Uh, but uh, The ides of march for the stock market is important because you got the end of the first quarter and that's like, you know Institutions drive most of these patterns and they're very quarterly based. So that first quarter is a big deal

Bob: So Jeff, I wanted to, um, just to look back a little bit, uh, to help us look forward. And, um, say we do have another positive month here in December to end the year. This will be 11 positive months in the year of 2024. At 11 I think April was the only down month.

Jeffrey Hirsch: Yep,

Bob: And then if we go back and look at, um, Donald Trump's first term, right? You remember 2017, every single. Every single month was up in 2017. So does that get you, is that what's getting you excited here about the opportunity, the potential to, to go higher, um, in 2025?

Jeffrey Hirsch: it's it's definitely adding. I'm [00:57:00] looking for the page of the almanac here. It's definitely adding to my, my outlook. Um, and I have, we have all the charts of post election years. Right here on page. Oh, what is it? 20 something? I don't know. Anyway, it's, it's pretty solid. Here it is. Let's see,

Bob: want to say 2017 was the first and only year that the stock market SP 500 was up every single month in the calendar year. Is that, is that, does that sound right to you?

Jeffrey Hirsch: I will have to check that, but it sounds like it could have been the case and I could look it up here, but, um. If you're saying it, you know, it's probably true. But it's definitely worth looking at

Bob: Yeah.

Jeffrey Hirsch: because that adds to the whole post election year, you know, improvement that I was talking about earlier. I mean, it's, it's part of it.

Um, and you know, politics aside, the reason the market rallied and the reason the prospects for, for 2025 are bullish partially is the [00:58:00] fact that we're looking at some pro business. Deregulatory type of policy, you know, initiatives and agendas for the year. Um, you know, there could be some issues with tariffs and inflation.

I mean, we're talking about the art of the deal guy. I think that's some negotiating tactics and, um, you know, the way he operates. But, uh, 2017, as you pointed out there, Bob, was the way it was because of all of the pro business stuff that got, uh, you know, initiated.

CV: so, so jeff, you seem very bulls up, I think is a fair way to say it. Um, you've got your super boom and longer term forecast. But when, when you look at these seasonal patterns, Um, let's say over the next, you know, six months, 12 months, something like that, what would give you pause? Right? That tell it that would say, Oh, this is not panning out the way I thought. Are there factors that, you know, you would to [00:59:00] share that might say

Jeffrey Hirsch: Sure. I mean,

CV: Okay.

Jeffrey Hirsch: other than the fund, other than the fundamental stuff and technical stuff, since, you know, I'm the seasonality, you know, person here, um, first thing would be the, the small caps, not making a new high and not rallying like they should during the small cap effect or the January effect, Santa Claus fails to call, bears may come to broaden wall, Yale's line right out of the page 116 of the stock traders almanac.

First five days down. January barometer down. Four month January barometer. We get a negative January indicator trifecta. That's not good. Um, so that's where I start to worry and I'll start to adjust my forecast. Uh, you know, without it, we start seeing some inflation taking up. We've seen the Fed, uh, you know, hiking rates.

Um, that sort of thing, um, you know, uh, with inflation issues, or even if they have to, you know, make some dramatic cut, [01:00:00] because the economy is falling apart. You know, those are the kinds of things that we're that we're looking at. Right now, I don't see that using the longer term outlook, you know, past, you know, and again, you going back to the best six months, if we don't get a positive best six months, that's a negative indication.

That means that there are other forces that are more powerful that are overriding the seasonals.

CV: So,

Jeffrey Hirsch: span, not a negative month, not a a, a pullback, not a 10% correction, but the whole period being, being down. But the po the, the midterm election year pattern.

You know, I'm not always a bull. We were bearish in 22 at the outset, um, and piled onto it. And then when everyone was freaking out in October of 2022, we dialed up some Yale Hirsch and the bear killer bargain month stuff that he wrote in the 69 almanac and the sentiment was negative. And everyone was, you know, throwing in the towel and [01:01:00] that's the typical midterm bear market bottom.

And we had it. Um, there was very few people that were, were bullish back then. Um, and, you know, the 4 year cycle has been so on point since COVID. I mean, it's really tracked very closely. You guys know, and, and, you know, we can illustrate that, but. My concern is that there's going to come a point where it doesn't continue to track these things happen in the late 90s.

It was everything was straight up. There was no, there was no downs. So, I'm leery for something happening here, but at this point, it looks like we, the bull market goes on and we'll probably end up getting a, you know. Fair market, you know, garden variety, 20, 30 percent 1 and sometime in 2026.

CV: the market. But you also said you had. this newsletter where you talk stocks, ETFs and things like that. Um, are there particular sectors that you're warming up to? Not necessarily small caps per se, but you know, market [01:02:00] cap, uh, irrespective. Is there any, you know, sectors that you're, like I said, feeling a little more comfortable with or think have better prospects?

Jeffrey Hirsch: Um, you know, we like the technology sector for the rest of whatever. Uh, I own some biotech that got over, um, sold, I think, because of, uh, RFK and some of the health care stuff. Um, energy is probably going to get a little bit of a, um, um, you know, like the actually type sector stocks because of the, you know, increased drill baby drill type mentality with the Trump administration.

I think that sets those 2 up for, um, being a little over sold. I doubled down on my IBB position, um, personally, because. It got knocked off and I said, you know biotech is kind of part of the future. Um, It definitely needs to get real dan a little bit. There's a little bit of uh You know, nepotism and cahoots between government and pharmaceutical industry, as we all know.

[01:03:00] But, um, I think there's a good value there. Um, so, I mean, other than the seasonal trading, I think those are a couple that that that presented themselves. I'm looking for the small caps to show us something, though,

CV: right.

Lindsey Bell: be keeping our eyes on those small caps for sure. I guess

Jeffrey Hirsch: and I

Lindsey Bell: question.

CV: to

Jeffrey Hirsch: ahead. No, no, go ahead.

Lindsey Bell: No, I was just going to say like one other thing too. I'm just curious. I mean, we know that it seems like the cycles between bull and bear market are kind of at least from bear to bull market or seem to be shortening.

Right? Is that what your work is showing? Or I don't know if there's any insights that you have that you want to

Jeffrey Hirsch: Yeah, I think that's an observation. We've seen that over the years that bear markets are shorter and shallower as a rule, you know, we've seen a lot of short ones over the past. The Kobe bear market was a perfect example of that. And we do have a page on that in the [01:04:00] almanac in the back. And you can see the time frames.

It's full and bear markets since 1900 for the Dow and 30 since for the S& P and then the 70s for NASDAQ. And yeah, those bear markets are fewer and farther between and shorter and less steep. Um, you know, we've gotten better at this.

Bob: And don't you think a reason for that would be, um, since 1987, that Fed put that's been in place, um, that people are scared that, uh, they don't want to get too bearish because they're afraid that the, the Fed is going to step in there and start dumping liquidity in the market?

Jeffrey Hirsch: Yeah, I think that as well as the, um, you know, circuit breakers and collars and, and mechanical, you know, systemic things that we're putting in place to help, help that as well.

Bob: Interesting.

CV: All right, Jeff, you know, before we get out of here, I want to for your time. Very fascinating, insightful. I, uh, you know, what's the [01:05:00] expression, you know, uh, The trend is your friend. friend and something to b I think folks should real at what you've got in the want to get the almanac, Excellent.

Jeffrey Hirsch: I mean, it's available wherever books are sold, you know, Amazon, whatever. Um, I don't sell it on my website if I sell the newsletter, but if you want to get a free copy of the almanac, subscribe to the newsletter at stocktradersalmanac. com. I think there's still a cyber Monday or holiday read up there. Um, you know, holiday sale thing available.

And, um, it's pretty much where you can get everything. Most

CV: Excellent. Wel some of our team will be florida. Like you mention will be making sure they

Jeffrey Hirsch: forward to seeing you guys down there.

Bob: Thanks,

Jeffrey Hirsch: for having me.

Lindsey Bell: [01:06:00] Yeah.