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1. Market Declines and the Problem of Time
When stock markets rise, the bullish narrative tends to dominate, overlooking the potential impact of market declines. This oversight stems from two main problems: a basic misunderstanding of math and time’s critical role in investing. Every year, I receive the following chart as a counterargument when discussing the importance of managing risk during a portfolio’s life cycle. The chart shows that while the average bull market advance is 149%, the average bear market decline is just -32%. — Lance Roberts
2. No G2 or G3? Financial Planning Without Future Generations
In the realm of financial planning, many assumptions are built around the idea of family—raising children, preparing for their futures, and transferring wealth to the next generation (G2 and G3). However, for clients who are childfree, these standard guidelines don’t always apply. Advisors working with these clients must adopt a new set of strategies to ensure they meet their unique goals. — David Conti
3. What Message Did the Federal Reserve Deliver With Its 50bp Rate Cut?
In a highly anticipated decision, the FOMC voted to lower the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a target range of 4.75%-5.00%, a larger-than-expected move and their first move lower since March 2020. In his press conference, Powell repeatedly described the move as a policy “recalibration”, suggesting the Fed is proactively managing economic risk. — Stephanie Aliaga
4. The Healthcare AI Disruptor You Haven't Heard of
The discussion delves into how Healwell AI leverages artificial intelligence and data science to disrupt and improve the healthcare industry. With a mission to enhance patient outcomes and streamline operations, Healwell AI is poised to transform the future of healthcare. — Why The Buzz?
5. Why the Federal Reserve's Forecast is Difficult to Understand
With a staff of over 400 economic Ph.D.s and seasoned leadership, many believe the Fed has a firm grasp on future economic and inflation trends. Accordingly, they must have a good idea of what the future holds for interest rates. Unfortunately, we share a little secret: the Fed’s latest Fed Funds forecast makes little sense. Consider the Fed’s current long-run GDP and PCE price forecasts, which are 1.80% and 2.00%, respectively. In 2019, before the pandemic, the Fed’s long-range forecast for GDP was 1.90% and PCE at 2.00%. In other words, growth prospects slipped slightly, but nothing materially changed. However, despite the same economic and inflation outlook, the lowest long-range Fed Funds rate forecast for the 19 Feb members is 2.40%, well above the average Fed Funds rate in the post-finance crisis era. — Michael Lebowitz
6. The Best-Kept Secret to Successful Investing
What’s the single greatest secret in investing? People will give all kinds of complicated answers to this question. But really, it boils down to one simple thing. Doing this thing can put millions of extra dollars in your retirement account, starting today. No exaggeration. The data says folks who do this thing are seven times more likely to be rich than someone who does the opposite. And you can implement this thing the moment you’re done reading this email. Let’s see what it is. — Stephen McBride
7. Stop Wasting Money on Leads: Focus on Proven Strategies That Work
Many advisors rely too heavily on lead generation, missing the opportunity to build stronger, authentic connections through referrals and introductions. As an industry, we've failed to communicate our value effectively, leading people to seek help from unknown sources instead of trusted advisors. — Joseph Lukacs
8. Simplicity, Predictability and Growth in up and Down Markets
Keep your retirement savings moving forward, even if the market is going backward, with the 1 year S&P 500 Dual Trigger available with a Lincoln fixed indexed annuity. — Lincoln Financial Group
9. Your Prospects Don’t Have To Like You -- To Hire You!
If you've been in the industry for any length of time, you were likely taught that getting your prospects to like you is a crucial part of your sales process. Your mentors and peers probably emphasized the importance of building rapport, creating small talk, and ensuring that your prospects walk away from every interaction liking your personality. — Ari Galper
10. How to Deliver Positive News to Clients During a Stock Market Decline
No tree grows to the sky. You have heard that expression before. Many clients have not seen a down market. Stocks are cyclical. When one eventually arrives, some investors will handle it well, others will not. Studies have shown retail investors tend to buy high and sell low, when it is supposed to work the other way around. You cannot prevent them from selling, because it’s their money. What can you talk about to calm their fears and get them thinking about the long term? — Bryce Sanders
11. Navigating Earnings Season: In the Middle of the Muddle
The U.S. economy has slowed. But “slowed” requires a bit of context. There is no shortage of ways to parse the economic outlook, and—with the benefit of hindsight—point out the places and times the variables appear to have broken. In some circumstances, that may be a useful exercise. Most of the time, it is not. It is important to note where the economy has been only in the context of where it may be going. Thankfully, there is the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow metric. It is a sort of “wayback” machine for the U.S. economy. — Samuel Rines