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Stocks are down this morning but things seem to have quieted down a bit of late ... as the large rises and falls during the trading session seem to have slowed dramatically over the past week or so. What do I mean by that? It seems we had 400- and 500-point rises and falls (or more) almost every day in late December and the early part of this month ... but things seem to be "tamer" of late. This even allows me to run to the kitchen for coffee without thinking I'm going to miss an explosive market move in the few minutes it takes to get the Keurig going.
One major bit of news we are seeing is the reduction in the probability (according to Bloomberg) of a rate hike this year ... in fact, one chart I saw this morning shows the chances to presently be around 12%! This is a pretty big change of view especially considering the same source put the probability at 90% when an assessment was made in early November ... only around 10 weeks ago.
That being said ... Daily Shot is reporting that mortgage applications "... jumped to the highest in over a decade for this time of the year." Out of curiosity I went to Bankrate.com ... looked at 30-year mortgage rates ... and see a lot offered in the 4% range (with 15-year about ½% below that)! For those who missed out on refinancing it seems that now might be a good opportunity to do so ... if you are paying a rate much higher than that. Just saying ...
This seems to have helped homebuilder optimism ... but the numbers I viewed (using Daily Shot again) still show this to be below the optimism expressed at the end of November 2017. We certainly don't want rates to jump up ... especially because I am considering having a new deck put on my home ... and am worried about rates ... though, heck, if I wait much longer I will miss having anything done by springtime.
Related: Is the U.S. Economy Affected as the Shutdown Continues?
You also need to wonder if refinancing has been started by government workers not getting paid. I read that some have been dipping into their IRAs in order to pay bills. I certainly hope penalties for early withdrawals are waived if that is the case. As this shutdown continues it will become more of a burden for these workers ... especially contract workers who might not be "paid in arrears."
By the way, one article included today mentioned the IRS is waiving penalties for those who did not withhold enough ... within reason ... as they understand the new tax rules put into place were not so easy to plan around.
Things certainly seem to be more costly nowadays ... but people seem to be accepting it.
My sister just got Botox. I told her prices were about to rise. She didn't raise an eyebrow.
... as of 11:12 AM today ...
While some keep telling us a recession is coming, one person who is pretty knowledgeable about such things says not to worry for now ... and Jamie Dimon does have quite a strong background (CNN)
https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/06/economy/jamie-dimon-economy-recession/index.html
... though one thing that does have an effect is lower imports. Why do I say that? I'm not speaking about goods, I am speaking about students ... quality, smart kids ... afraid to apply at U.S. schools (Bloomberg)
Confused about how much you will owe to the IRS this year? Join the club ... as deduction changes make grasping this a bit hard. But the IRS is understanding and will waive some penalties (USAToday)
Do you subscribe too many online sites in order to get movies? Costs could add up ... so here is a list of free streaming sites with plenty of offerings (though some films are pretty dated) (CNET)
https://www.cnet.com/how-to/best-free-online-movie-streaming-services-netflix/
Are people starting to eat healthier? There seems to be a movement starting where plants are becoming a more important part of our diet than beef (Fortune)
http://fortune.com/2019/01/17/plant-based-diet-meat-consumption-research/
... but one thing many of us can't live without is coffee ... and changes in the climate could make some of the coffee types disappear (Time)
http://time.com/5505345/wild-coffee-species-threat-extinction/
A young kid was given a choice. Take one-third of a million dollars guaranteed ... or take a risk for more? While seemingly okay with his (wrong) choice, I suspect he sometimes cries himself to sleep (CNBC)