Trending
President Joe Biden’s withdrawal and endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris has sent shockwaves through the political establishment, and while former President Donald Trump remains the frontrunner, the wind has certainly shifted in Harris’s favor. She’s managed to secure a majority of Democratic delegates, and she now has the endorsement of all top party leaders, including Barack Obama.
Harris’s campaign said it raised a jaw-dropping $100 million within 24 hours, which, if true, has to be a record. Users on the online betting platform Polymarket now believe the vice president has a 38% probability of winning in November, up from just 1% just a month earlier.
As a bit of trivia, Biden isn’t the first sitting president to choose not to seek reelection, but he’s the first to make the announcement so close to Election Day. Not including Richard Nixon, who quit the office outright in 1974, the last two presidents to forgo reelection were Lyndon Johnson, in 1968, and Harry Truman, in 1952.
GDP Surge Meets Market Rotation
This political upheaval comes at a time when the U.S. economy is sending mixed signals. On the one hand, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter hit an impressive 2.8%, beating expectations and more than doubling the growth in the first quarter.
The S&P 500 is up about 14% this year, despite recent pullbacks as investors rotate out of high-flying tech stocks into smaller, undervalued companies. The shift appears to be partly driven by expectations of lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
In any case, these positive indicators—a solid economy and stock market—typically bode well for the incumbent party, giving Harris an edge.
Why Americans Feel Poorer In A Growing Economy
However, we can’t ignore the economic anxiety that many Americans are feeling right now. A recent survey by buy-now-pay-later company Affirm found that three in five Americans believe we’re in a recession, even though we’re not officially in one. This perception is influenced by inflation and higher living costs.
Credit card payment delinquencies are also rising at a concerning rate right now as Americans’ pandemic-era savings have run dry. The percentage of cardholders who are more than 30 days delinquent is at a 12-year high, while the percentage of those who are 60 days or more past due hit a new series high of around 2.6%.
The Battle Over Tech And Bitcoin
Last week, I discussed J.D. Vance, a former venture capitalist and Trump’s running mate. I indicated that Vance is likely to serve as the Trump campaign’s bridge to Silicon Valley’s deep pockets.
But Harris, 59, has similar connections as well. She served as California’s attorney general from 2011 to 2017 and then as senator from 2017 to 2021. As a result, she reportedly has long-term connections to Silicon Valley. The New York Times reports that, in past campaigns, the vice president has relied on Silicon Valley’s tech elites for donations. A recent CNN headline, in fact, reads that “Kamala Harris wants to be America’s first Silicon Valley president.”
An area I’m watching closely is the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency space. As someone who’s deeply involved in the sector through HIVE Digital Technologies, I believe the next administration’s stance on crypto could have significant implications for this emerging and yet important asset class.
Although Harris hasn’t made any statements for or against digital currencies in the past, her team has reportedly reached out to crypto-savvy figures like Mark Cuban. The Blockchain Association, the industry’s trade group, said that Harris presents a “fresh opportunity” to make inroads with the Democratic Party, which has historically not been as welcoming to digital assets and crypto mining as Americans on the political right have been, generally speaking.
Trump, on the other hand, has transformed himself into the ultimate pro-Bitcoin candidate after being “orange pilled” by Bitcoin mining executives at his Mar-a-Lago home last month. The former president posted on his social media platform Truth Social soon after the meeting that he wants “all the remaining Bitcoin to be made in the USA.”
Trump is speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville tomorrow, July 27, and I’ll be sure to share my thoughts next week. Watch this space!