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I blogged the other day A new British Government: what does it mean for fintech? and asked the question of how the new Labour government could maintain the UK’s leadership in this space. Today, I’m asking the other question about our special relationship with America, and what a new American Government would mean for fintech. The answer is quite interesting as the most likely outcome in the USA, bearing in mind its not happening for 15 weeks, will be a Republican Government led by Donald Trump. This view is strengthened by the combination of the assassination attempt, although the new curve-ball of Kamala Harris may change the game, especially as she raised over $80 million of political donations in just 24 hours after launching her campaign.
Nevertheless, Trump is still in the driving seat imho and so, what would a Trump-led Republican Government mean for us folks in banking and fintech? Well, let’s start with his choice for vice-president JD Vance who is described by The Economist as an “articulate anti-globalist, anti-big business” enthusiast. Specifically, according to The Economist, Mr Vance “thinks big tech companies should be broken up. He belongs to a movement on the right that views big firms as un-American for stretching their supply chains across the world”.
So there might be a push to break-up the big tech firms. OK. But you then have to bear in mind that Big Tech is no longer just Amazon, Meta and Netflix. It’s also Bolt, Ripple, Robinhood, Plaid, Stripe, SoFi and Chime. How will Trump’s administration approach the fintech firms? TBH, it may be a good thing. For example, JD Vance may appear to be against big tech, but he has also been a VC investor who’s worked closely with PayPal founder Peter Thiel. Add to this that, in the past few weeks, some of Silicon Valley’s heaviest hitters have put their muscle behind Trump. The list includes 16z’s Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, Sequoia’s Doug Leone, Elon Musk, Palantir cofounder Joe Lonsdale and crypto billionaires Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.
Wow! That is a powerful list. Why would they back Donald Trump and JD Vance? Primarily because there is a belief that the democrats over regulate. As reported in Sifted, these Silicon Valley heavyweights believe that the democrats “programme stifles innovation through overregulation in fields like AI and burdensome taxes, such as the plan to introduce the unrealised capital gains tax (the tax on valuation increases). Trump, they say, has a much more laissez-faire approach and wants to support startups operating in AI and crypto.” This is demonstrated clearly in these words from a recent speech:
Donald Trump makes EPIC promise to US crypto holders: pic.twitter.com/LqCRtEZTbD
— Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDailyio) July 19, 2024
https://x.com/AltcoinDailyio/status/1814097757382328406/video/1
Postscript: the Sifted article notes the views of Ragnar Sass, Estonian angel investor and the cofounder of the unicorn Pipedrive, who stated in a LinkedIn update that the endorsements and support of Silicon Valley of the Trump campaign is a big mark against the future of Ukraine and Eastern Europe.