Michael P. Lebowitz

It appears the Fed has two paths to consider. Nick Timiraos of the WSJ lays out the bumpy or stuck inflation scenarios the Fed faces. #inflation

Therefore, we must investigate what is and isn’t driving the price of gold higher. #gold #strategy

The analysis suggests that investors may be bracing for high unemployment rates and a loss of confidence in the next six to nine months. #amazon

The average Wall Street forecast for job growth was 200k, with the highest individual at 290k. #economy #jobs #markets

It is also worth noting that the divergence between the two indices is abnormal. Typically, they are closely aligned. #markets

Markets often experience periods, like today, where specific sectors or factors lead the market. #markets #investing #stocks

While we are in a bubble of sorts, our current situation pales compared to Japan’s bubble and subsequent lost decades. #Japan #economy

To appreciate the Fed’s change in stance, let’s consider the dovish comments from the Fed’s most hawkish member, Christopher Waller.

QE is no longer a tool for handling a crisis. It has morphed into a policy to ensure the government can fund itself. #QE #Fed #economy

If Powell doesn’t appreciate the difference between financial and borrowing conditions, we must assume most investors do not either. #markets

While this continues to be a boy who cried wolf scenario at the moment, it is important not to get lulled into a sense of complacency. #strategy

With the advent of Bitcoin ETFs, it’s worth appreciating what MicroStrategy investors are truly buying. #Bitcoin #crypto #ETF

it’s worth diving into the Bougie Broke fad to appreciate if a large subset of the population can continue to consume at current rates. #wealth

So why, as the Bloomberg chart on the left highlights, are financial conditions so easy? #strategy #economy

RRP and what it might foretell, it’s worth appreciating that a good understanding of the Fed’s policy tools is vital for investors. #markets

Over the last twelve months, Nvidia has increased by 261%. Other AI-focused companies like AMD, AVGO, and KLAC have 100+% gains. #Nvidia

Indeed, our analysis shows Apple can keep up its buyback magic. #Apple #markets

Outperformance versus the market is warranted. Since 1993, Apple’s earnings per share have grown at over 3x the rate of the S&P 500. #Apple

Their huge economic growth rate came to a halt in the early 1990s, marking the beginning of what is termed Japan’s Lost Decades. #Japan

For the most part, the high valuations of the Nifty Fifty were appropriate. Will we be able to say the same for the Magnificent Seven? #stocks

What is surprising is that the midcap index is setting a record high as interest rates are starting to inch higher again. #strategy #markets

Price-to-earnings ratio of 9 for Toyota and 72 for Tesla, the answers to our questions have critical implications for shareholders of both. #Tesla #Toyota

Those coming in the next few months could be well below expectations and likely prompt the Fed to ease the Fed Funds rate. #rates #markets

Weakening demand, growing popularity of hybrid models, and competition from every other automaker also weigh on Tesla. Is it time to buy Tesla? #Tesla

Pandemic-related stimulus slowly but surely exits the financial system and the economy and the supply lines fully heal, inflation will continue to fall.

The biggest puzzle is the stark difference between the establishment and household surveys. #data #markets

With the history lesson behind us, we move on to the recent inflation that kicked off in conjunction with the pandemic. #inflation

We must understand what happened then and appreciate the similarities and differences from today. #markets

To properly assess whether a repeat of 70s-era inflation is possible, we must first understand why inflation was rampant during that period. #markets

Slowdown to more sustainable growth rates. Such does not involve a recession or high inflation. For most asset markets, it’s a dream scenario #market

Despite numerous omens that have traditionally signaled a recession is coming, the junk bond market has yet to provide such a warning. #recession #markets

The bottom line is don’t mistake a new trend for tax gain selling and other year-end related trades. #markets

Can the Magnificent 7 retain its crown? Or will some subset of the 493 other S&P 500 stocks and their neglected sectors take the throne in 2024? #2024

We must appreciate the bandwagon bias harbored in our mindsets and not let it cloud our vision of the future. #bias #strategy

An important graph we will share, shows why we should keep it simple stupid or KISS with bonds. #bonds #income

The higher price incentivizes more production, which will likely keep the trend in US oil production rising. #oil #alternatives

Expects the Fed to pause through February. Starting in March 2024, the market implies increasing odds of the Fed cutting rates. #markets #2024

If the latest bond market bear narrative claiming that higher yields are a direct function of massive Treasury debt issuance holds water. #bonds

Consider that weakening labor statistics may reflect the normalization of labor conditions and not necessarily an imminent recession. #recession

In hindsight, so many economists could not have been more wrong in 2020 about the path of inflation. #economy #inflation

The volatile market environment helps us appreciate why target date funds are foolish. #strategy #markets

Despite widespread misunderstanding, the dollar price of a stock doesn’t tell us how rich or cheap it is. #stocks #markets

This article discusses one of our favored bond fair value models to show you the true bond yield signal. #bonds #markets

Instead of guessing what she is pondering, we do some math and arrive at the only possible answer. #interest #rates

This article summarizes two interest rate-related crises, Long Term Capital Management and the lesser-known Financial Crisis of 1966. #markets

Warren Buffett has often said: A rising tide floats all boats. Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked. #markets

This article employs a classic bond model that allows us to solve for the expected economic growth as implied by bond yields. #bonds

Assuming that was the Fed’s final rate increase for this cycle, it may not be until June 2024 before a recession occurs. #recession

Our concern for the risk-free status of government debt may be very different from where you think we might be going. #debt #risk

Can briefly upset the bond market. But we do not see inflation, deficits, or QT as a cause of concern for longer-term bond bulls. #markets #bonds