Michael P. Lebowitz

The threat of a long-lasting price-wage spiral will keep the Fed and other banks from taking their foot off the brakes too soon. #investing

If a price-wage spiral develops, the likelihood of persistent inflation is real. This scenario must scare the Fed. #stockmarket #Investing

Investors paying attention to the Fed and the market’s take on the Fed will be best situated to withstand what could be a volatile second half.

No one has a crystal ball, but the tools to better recognize price trends and form risk/reward expectations exist and are easy to follow.

Inflation is the bugaboo that upset the game. Inflation and higher bond yields wreak havoc on countries overly dependent on debt.

The Fed and many other central banks face trolley car problems, albeit lives are not on the line. #economy #inflation #investing

The Fed has just started its tightening campaign. Rates have risen on three occasions by a total of 150bps. #fed #interestrates

Unless inflation quickly diminishes, it will tolerate a higher-than-normal amount of instability and result in higher bond spreads and lower stock prices.

If the consumer struggles continue, can the government support them? The answer is unlikely. #consumer #economy #investing

Telling the tale of the Bear Stearns rally and investors’ myopic vision in the spring of 2008 is a valuable lesson for today. #markets

While others wait for more official government economic data, we prefer to consider how quickly weakening economic activity. 

Given that NVDA is proliferating and CLX growth appears limited, analysis questions why hold a value stock in CLX versus a growth stock in NVDA

Liquidity is the fuel that keeps the financial market’s engine running. Without enough liquidity, the motor seizes, and financial crises erupt.

The BOJ should continue with the current aggressive money easing toward achieving the price stability target of 2% in a stable manner

Does a risk-free bond with a seven percent yield interest you? Read more about the bond world that is finally attracting investors.

No one, including Fed members, know how far they will have to go to fight inflation. They are flying by the seat of their pants. #inflation

Will enemies of the U.S. stop using dollars? Highly doubtful. Will they possibly add gold to their reserves? Most likely. #gold #bitcoin #rubles

It is more likely the financial markets cry uncle, and the Fed comes to the rescue once again. #finance #investing #stockmarket

Filling out brackets provides insight into how investors select assets, structure portfolios, and react during volatile market periods.

The Windfall Profits Tax Bill doesn’t truly penalize energy companies. It punishes consumers with more inflation. #economy #oil #tax

While higher gas prices may be welcome news to the oil industry, the rest of us should be concerned as it is a glaring recession warning.

In a bear market, we recommend relying on technical studies but understanding the fundamental backdrop. #stockmarket #bearmarket

The historically low yield environment and the liquidity and ease of trading ETFs make bond trading more commonplace among retail investors.

In the late 1990s, MSFT investors were betting the company could grow earnings at many multiples of the market rate. $MSFT

Many value stocks are poorly represented in passive funds. As such, they are less likely to move with markets. #investing #stocks

If this take is correct, the Fed may sit idly by if markets voice displeasure with abrupt changes in monetary policy. #investing #investor

Over the past two years, investors have had to balance fear and greed amidst market, economic, and political unpredictability. #greed #fear

If the Fed is so intent on fighting inflation, why are they still stimulating the economy and markets with crisis levels of QE? #inflation

No doubt 2022 will offer us both risk and rewards. Limiting risks and reaping the rewards will help traverse what offers to be another tricky year.

While that may seem problematic for investors, if we learned anything in 2020 and 2021, it is that stock prices can climb a wall of worry efficiently.

The current high inflation episode exposes MMT’s fatal flaw. Despite the flaw, we suspect the push for MMT will continue. #MMT

The dollar’s value does not influence debt costs for United States domestic borrowers. That is quite the opposite for foreign borrowers.

Leading to the tech bust, the narrative behind record valuations was grand expectations for a new internet era and outsized economic growth.

Assuming the regression holds and history has favorable odds of that occurring, we expect the S&P 500 to fall to 2650 in the next two years. 

As the pandemic ravaged the economy, the Federal Reserve, White House, and Congress went to work and built a Potemkin economy. 

Today, American families are faced with rising prices and inflation not seen in 30 years – this is surely not price stability.

If easy money is the bedrock of valuations and the Fed is getting ready to shift the bedrock, investors best pay attention to market forecasts.

The Fed does not want to pierce multiple asset bubbles or force the Treasury to pay normal market interest rates. #stockmarket #economy

We urge you carefully consider the risks and rewards in various inflation environments and trade accordingly. This time is different!

Persistent is not transitory. Persistent inflation requires the Fed to take detrimental actions to investors. #transitory #inflation

China is taking multiple actions to boost productivity and sustainably strengthen its economy. #economy #china #finance #stocks

There has been much talk of transitory inflation, but the evidence is starting to suggest the term may overstay its welcome. #inflation

If the market reverts to a zero sigma, we should expect 36% losses. Again, a decline to negative readings will compound the losses.

As investors, we must understand what the Fed does and take advantage of its near-term benefits to asset prices. #stockmarket

AMC’s market cap has recently fallen from $25 billion to $18 billion. At $18 billion its market cap is about six times its pre-pandemic level.

The broad economic shutdowns and psychological impacts of the pandemic altered consumer and business spending habits.

Liquidity is our asset bubble’s lift and worth closely examining to better assess the markets’ potential flight path. #stockmarket #liquidity

In our opinion, the Fed’s contribution to wealth inequality is significant and grossly misunderstood. #stockmarket #investing #investor

The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again? #investing #stockmarket #investor

For a market riding high on the back of excessive monetary policy, a “go crazy” situation might awaken the hibernating bear. #stockmarket