Michael P. Lebowitz

As widely expected, the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 25bps, to 4.25-4.50%, at yesterday’s FOMC meeting. #markets

US economy diverged from the global economy, or are a lot of economic canaries in coalmines keeling over and warning the US is soon to catch down? #markets

As many developed nations show stagnant economic growth or even contraction, the U.S. economy continues to hum. #strategiat

A coming blog article, we will discuss the slump in global economic growth and why U.S. investors should pay attention. #markets

Should we ignore it, assuming that Canada’s reliance on commodities and manufacturing, which are also in a slump in the U.S. #US #Canada

investors should at least appreciate what may happen if things do not go according to plan. We now present the other side of the story.

The economy is weaker than the current statistics portray? Or might the economy be less reliant on construction than it has been? $markets

It’s hard to see how the number of residential real estate transactions increases without much lower mortgage rates and or home prices.

Bitcoin will likely consolidate, but the big question is when and, equally importantly, how much higher it will go before taking a breather. #Bitcoin

Stock investors frontrunning the Fed were able to take advantage of a 15% S&P 500 surge in just four months. #markets

Black Friday sales estimates, sales were strong, but shoppers were much more inclined to take advantage of online sales than go to the malls.

Bessent appears to appreciate the bond market’s concern, which helps explain why he immediately released his 3-3-3 rule. #strategy

Wall Street’s poster child for AI is Nvidia. With an overwhelming market share in AI chip design, Nvidia is up over 200% year to date #Nvidia

Target appears to be much cheaper. However, Wall Street is certainly voting that Walmart is the better of the two stocks. #Walmart #Target

The headlines regarding Trump’s proposed tariffs and their inflationary consequences are undoubtedly worrying, but will they prove correct? #markets

When speculative momentum fails, gold may eventually catch down to its fundamental relationships. #alternatives #gold

Mentioned the 5×5 rate gives us an inflation expectations benchmark to better gauge how the Fed will manage monetary policy. #markets

Won’t find in today’s Wall Street Journal. The reason is that official inflation gauges, such as CPI, are in the mid to upper 2% range.

Accordingly, let’s learn more about the MACD to see how it detects trends, potential trend changes, and assesses momentum. #MACD

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump favored the crypto industry, including appointing crypto-friendly regulators. #crypto

Despite growing de-dollarization narratives in traditional and social media, the dollar’s use in global transactions is increasing. #markets #dollar

The number of residential construction workers has almost doubled since the aftermath of the financial crisis and housing bust. #housing

We suspect another six months of a flat to declining PCE price index and CPI will be needed for the Fed to be publically comfortable with inflation.

Can famed investors Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller, who recently proclaimed they are short bonds, thus betting on higher yields, be wrong? #market

Such a signal can be a leading indicator of broad-based labor market weakness in the pipeline. However, take the data with a grain of salt #labor

As investors, we can bet on robo taxi success with Tesla shares or against its progress via Uber. #Tesla #Uber #taxi

Given the tight relationship between inflation and bond yields, memory inflation negatively affects bond prices. #bonds #inflation

Amazon’s plan will be an interesting data point for the labor markets and corporate employers. #Amazon

Is the highly tight correlation breaking? Or are bond yields waiting a couple of weeks, as they have in the past, before following crude oil prices lower?

We put much more stock in Taiwan Semiconductor’s earnings than ASML’s. The graph below shows Taiwan Semiconductor is up over 80% this year

Increasing level of implied risk should not be shocking. Will the elevated VIX persist alongside the rising market, or will the market correct? #markets

The Fed cut rates on September 18th and many expect them to follow through with more rate cuts in the coming meetings.

Minutes as hawkish is pretty ironic, considering the Fed’s 50bps rate cut three weeks ago was the most dovish action they have taken in a few years.

Doesn’t recommend specific agency REITs, but it does lay out some of the fundamental basics of the largest publicly traded agency REITs. #markets

These reports remain extremely critical for the Fed, but the media may be overstating their market importance. #markets

Total market cap of public companies has risen marginally on a global basis. Compare that to the significant growth of private equity firms. #strategy

We were inspired to write this by a message asking us in disbelief if we had ever seen such an adverse bond market reaction to a rate cut. #markets

China has injected its economy with an incredible amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus, which has resulted in extreme optimism in its stock market #China

The government has been recklessly spending to prop up the economy, bolstering private sector incomes and balance sheets. #China

If you are buying this bull steepener, agency REITs are worth your consideration. #strategy #REIT

Unfortunately, we share a little secret: the Fed’s latest Fed Funds forecast makes little sense. #economy #strategy

Threat of a minor shutdown is real, history has proven a high likelihood that a deal will be struck and a short-term patch will buy a month #debt

Currently, the plans are only campaign promises. History repeatedly reminds us that many political promises are meant to drum up votes. #markets

While the Fed may want to move the ball faster with a 50 bps rate cut, doing so potentially poses risks. #Fed #rates

The rapid decline in global oil demand growth in recent months, led by China, has fuelled a sharp sell-off in oil markets. #china #oil

Implying future interest rates on a larger population of cash cows may be more telling. #markets #dividends

Not to say all gold miners underperform or will underperform gold. But choose wisely if you decide to invest in a gold miner over gold. #gold

These measures should tell the same economic story. However, GDI has proven to be more reliable and often leads GDP. #markets

It’s incumbent upon us to quantify how various stock indices, sectors, and factors have done during similar yield curve movements.#strategy

Most companies impose a ban on share buybacks about a month before their quarterly earnings report. #strategy