Michael P. Lebowitz

The headlines regarding Trump’s proposed tariffs and their inflationary consequences are undoubtedly worrying, but will they prove correct? #markets

When speculative momentum fails, gold may eventually catch down to its fundamental relationships. #alternatives #gold

Mentioned the 5×5 rate gives us an inflation expectations benchmark to better gauge how the Fed will manage monetary policy. #markets

Won’t find in today’s Wall Street Journal. The reason is that official inflation gauges, such as CPI, are in the mid to upper 2% range.

Accordingly, let’s learn more about the MACD to see how it detects trends, potential trend changes, and assesses momentum. #MACD

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump favored the crypto industry, including appointing crypto-friendly regulators. #crypto

Despite growing de-dollarization narratives in traditional and social media, the dollar’s use in global transactions is increasing. #markets #dollar

The number of residential construction workers has almost doubled since the aftermath of the financial crisis and housing bust. #housing

We suspect another six months of a flat to declining PCE price index and CPI will be needed for the Fed to be publically comfortable with inflation.

Can famed investors Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller, who recently proclaimed they are short bonds, thus betting on higher yields, be wrong? #market

Such a signal can be a leading indicator of broad-based labor market weakness in the pipeline. However, take the data with a grain of salt #labor

As investors, we can bet on robo taxi success with Tesla shares or against its progress via Uber. #Tesla #Uber #taxi

Given the tight relationship between inflation and bond yields, memory inflation negatively affects bond prices. #bonds #inflation

Amazon’s plan will be an interesting data point for the labor markets and corporate employers. #Amazon

Is the highly tight correlation breaking? Or are bond yields waiting a couple of weeks, as they have in the past, before following crude oil prices lower?

We put much more stock in Taiwan Semiconductor’s earnings than ASML’s. The graph below shows Taiwan Semiconductor is up over 80% this year

Increasing level of implied risk should not be shocking. Will the elevated VIX persist alongside the rising market, or will the market correct? #markets

The Fed cut rates on September 18th and many expect them to follow through with more rate cuts in the coming meetings.

Minutes as hawkish is pretty ironic, considering the Fed’s 50bps rate cut three weeks ago was the most dovish action they have taken in a few years.

Doesn’t recommend specific agency REITs, but it does lay out some of the fundamental basics of the largest publicly traded agency REITs. #markets

These reports remain extremely critical for the Fed, but the media may be overstating their market importance. #markets

Total market cap of public companies has risen marginally on a global basis. Compare that to the significant growth of private equity firms. #strategy

We were inspired to write this by a message asking us in disbelief if we had ever seen such an adverse bond market reaction to a rate cut. #markets

China has injected its economy with an incredible amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus, which has resulted in extreme optimism in its stock market #China

The government has been recklessly spending to prop up the economy, bolstering private sector incomes and balance sheets. #China

If you are buying this bull steepener, agency REITs are worth your consideration. #strategy #REIT

Unfortunately, we share a little secret: the Fed’s latest Fed Funds forecast makes little sense. #economy #strategy

Threat of a minor shutdown is real, history has proven a high likelihood that a deal will be struck and a short-term patch will buy a month #debt

Currently, the plans are only campaign promises. History repeatedly reminds us that many political promises are meant to drum up votes. #markets

While the Fed may want to move the ball faster with a 50 bps rate cut, doing so potentially poses risks. #Fed #rates

The rapid decline in global oil demand growth in recent months, led by China, has fuelled a sharp sell-off in oil markets. #china #oil

Implying future interest rates on a larger population of cash cows may be more telling. #markets #dividends

Not to say all gold miners underperform or will underperform gold. But choose wisely if you decide to invest in a gold miner over gold. #gold

These measures should tell the same economic story. However, GDI has proven to be more reliable and often leads GDP. #markets

It’s incumbent upon us to quantify how various stock indices, sectors, and factors have done during similar yield curve movements.#strategy

Most companies impose a ban on share buybacks about a month before their quarterly earnings report. #strategy

They may want to add a hot stock or reduce a poorly performing sector at the quarter end but not hold the hot stock throughout the quarter. #markets

Perspective on what a continued bull steepening trade may mean for returns of the major stock indices, along with various sectors and factors. #markets

GenAI takes some of the onus off developers, allowing them to use their skills better for more financially rewarding projects for Amazon. #AI #Amazon

Examine the CFNAI data and its long-term history, you will quickly realize the most recent data point is not as irregular as he alludes. #data

The Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, kicking off yesterday, will keep traders on edge over the next few days.

If the Fed Funds futures market is correct, the upside in bond prices may be limited, especially compared to prior easing cycles. #markets #bonds

The food inflation problem is not due to price gouging but excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus during the pandemic. #food

Walmart’s earnings report gives investors hope that weakening retail spending trends may be ending.  #Walmart

Is their accusation reasonable? Given the significant impact that liquidity has on financial markets, the answer is much more important. #strategy

The recent decline was the sharpest since the crash of 1987. That is stunning, considering that on Black Monday in 1987. #strategy

Despite the rate of hires falling below the pre-pandemic trend, the labor market remains relatively strong. #labor #jobs

When Bank of Japan Shinichi’s comments were released at 10 pm ET, the yen fell sharply, stocks started rallying. #markets

It is tricky to gauge as it can be inconsistent. However, confidence can sometimes change quickly and often with significant economic impacts. #markets

Weak employment data, the simmering Middle East, election jitters, and many other factors are taking the blame for rattling the markets.