Lance Roberts

Inflation will likely approach the Fed’s 2% target when the CPI shelter costs catch up with actual data. #markets #inflation #CPI

While the Fed may want to ignore energy prices, they are too important to the economy, the prices of other goods, and our inflation expectations to dismiss

The reinforcing positive feedback cycle fueled markets higher day after day. I remember those days clearly. It was the gold rush. #markets

While the jobs data seems strong, there is a lot of other data within the report, leading us to question its veracity. #jobs #markets

It is always interesting when commodity prices rise. The market produces various narratives to suggest why prices will keep growing indefinitely. #markets

Here we go again. At the peak of the mortgage bubble, leading to the Great Financial Crisis, lenders were offering zero down mortgages. #home

The price of crude oil sits on its 200-week moving average, which has been good support for the last year. #oil #trends #strategy

When investors bid up asset prices that exceed underlying earnings growth rates, market bubbles were previously present.

The future of electricity demand for everything from electric cars to Bitcoin mining to artificial intelligence may also be the cure for our debt concerns.

$8 billion of funds flowed into U.S. large-cap ETFs, leaving every other broad ETF sector in the dust. #ETF

GE Vernova GEV is a recent spin-off from GE. The company is involved in the power grid’s many traditional and alternative energy aspects. #GE

The problem, as with many of the narratives ramping up the ire of Americans on social media, is it is patently false. #inflation #markets

The FOMC minutes revealed little new information. Inflation remains stickier than expected, keeping the Fed on pause from cutting rates.

Duration of the LEI’s negative readings have always coincided with a recession. But again, the U.S. has avoided such an outcome. #recession

One repeated theme in the current round of earnings is that personal consumption is slowing down. #markets #consumers #spending

It’s unsurprising that stark market divergences can occur when certain stocks and sectors are in favor, and others are out of favor. #markets

While that activity is heavily encouraged by Wall Street and the media, funded by Wall Street, is benchmarking the right for you? #performance

They continue to be below normal, especially after Memorial Day, this will serve as another indicator that consumers are cutting back on spending. #markets

That deploying Buffett’s cash hoard in meaningful size is difficult due to an inability to find reasonably priced acquisition targets. #markets

The market now ascribes an 85% chance the Fed will cut rates in September and reduce them a second time before year-end. #markets

GME’s short interest ratio is slightly over 30. This means about a third of the shares outstanding are short. #GME #AMC

The stock market has a long track record of leading the economy by 6-9 months. To explain this, start with the chart of the S&P 500 index. #markets

An email from a reader last week got me thinking about the perfect investment vehicle and the search for the holy grail of investing. #markets

With just a few graphs, we can visualize how economic headwinds are about to get stiffer. #markets

For our challenge and a few quotes in this article come from a Wall Street Journal article entitled Apple is Buffett’s Best Investment. #Buffett

Of course, the reversal of QT means a buyer of Treasury bonds is returning to the market, increasing overall market liquidity. #markets

Here are the top five most insidious behavioral traits keeping us from achieving our long-term investment goals. #investing #goals

Jerome Powell alluded that it’s much more likely the next Fed move will be rate cuts, not an increase in interest rates. #markets #rates

Eli Lilly shares have risen significantly as the company is proving to be a leader in a new class of drugs that help with weight loss and diabetes. #LLY

The composite net bullish sentiment index, comprised of professional and retail investors, fell from 38.15 to 9.9 in two weeks. #markets

India is growing rapidly but only represents a minor share of the global economy. #india #economy

Retail sales data suggests a robust consumer, leading economists to become even more optimistic about more robust economic growth this year. #markets

June or July, the RRP will likely start declining, and with it, we should be on alert for new liquidity problems, barring any actions from the Fed #markets

This is just one plan for the Fed to help the Treasury fund its growing debts. Our Commentary about QE Light sheds light on a second rumored proposal. #Fed

Is this just a correction after a strong bullish advance from November, or is the bull market ending? #markets

Already seen the best performance of the year, or do years like 1980, 1996, and 2016 provide hope for even better returns in the coming months? #markets

Consumers can not consume without producing something first. Production must come first to generate the income needed for that consumption #recession

One common thread between gold and Bitcoin miners is that the easiest, cheapest gold or Bitcoin is mined first. #gold #Bitcoin

With Bitcoin already up 48% year to date, this coming halving may look more like the 2012 event than the last one. #Bitcoin

if commodity prices are to reflate, as shown, such will depend on more robust economic activity. #markets

As we detail below, their profit margins are shrinking, and their economic outlook remains favorable. #bank #economy #markets

In terms of statistics, a single four-standard deviation event should be rare. Three months in a row is a near statistical impossibility. #markets

The current performance is relatively in line with prior bull market cycles. Jurrien sums up his analysis: Time is still on our side. #markets

While most Wall Street economists have backed down their forecast for Fed Fund rate cuts from six to two, State Street remains very aggressive. #markets

The increase in leverage is not surprising, as it represents increased risk-taking by investors in the stock market. #markets

With Mother’s Day approaching and bullish market exuberance present, such is an excellent time to revisit the investing lessons she taught me. #mom

If the junk bond market experiences similar rising default rates as junk loans, its investors will be in for quite a rude awakening. Until then, party on!

There is little to be concerned about as 38% of the time, the market is cranking out greater than 20% returns versus just 6% of 20%. #markets

Despite two of the largest bull markets in history since 1980, most Americans struggle with making ends meet and are unprepared for retirement.

Might small cap stocks be a safe port in the storm if a recession hits, or might the correlation turn positive? #strategy #markets