Lance Roberts

Bear in mind they always call the recession well after each recession started and backdate it. #recession #markets

Risks face investors as September begins. While bullish positioning and optimism are ingredients for a rising market, there is more to this story. #markets

As we will review, Japan has much to tell us about the future of the U.S. economically. #Japan #USA

Can the Fed stimulate the economy with mortgage refinancings if most mortgage holders have interest rates below 4%? #markets

Labor sentiment in the services sector is vital to track to help us forecast how the Fed might manage monetary policy going forward. #strategy

Corrective market actions, as witnessed three weeks ago, tend to be buying opportunities. #markets

On Friday, Jerome Powell signaled that a September rate cut is highly likely, and the stock and bond markets applauded. #markets

The consumer—the backbone of the U.S. economy—may be in more trouble than the headline numbers indicate. #markets

What you missed was an extreme spike in implied volatility VIX accompanying significant losses for some of the market’s favorite stocks. #markets

While the recent bounce suggests the market decline may be over, risks remain—particularly with the November election looming. #markets

Assuming the relationship holds and oil prices continue to lead the way, bond traders should follow crude prices closely. #oil #bonds

Artificial stimulus created a surge in inflationary pressures, it did little to spark organic economic activity that would outlive the stimulus #markets

Despite the as-expected CPI print, the Fed may soon worry about deflation if you consider CPI without shelter prices. Sound crazy? #markets #inflation

NIXT index is simple: it buys stocks that have been kicked out of the indexes RA claims investors would have earned 74x on their money since 1991 #strategy

Investors, both professional and retail, were chasing a handful of stocks. They are also the same reasons that Mega-caps will likely regain their favor.

Presuming CPI, released on Wednesday, and PPI, released on Tuesday, are tame, the Fed will likely proceed with a rate cut at their next meeting. #markets

While such socialistic policies sound great in theory, history, and data, they aren’t the economic saviors they are touted to be. #UBI #markets

Unlike prior downdrafts, fear wasn’t just expressed in sentiment and words but also by remarkable heading action. #fear #markets

The carry trade works well as long as the Japanese Yen does not markedly appreciate, forcing a liquidation of the market leverage. #Yen #markets

The canary is far from keeling over, but like the yield curve, credit spreads should be followed closely if the economy continues to weaken. #markets

The economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low.

For the first time in a while, the Fed appears to be equally managing their two mandates, labor and prices. #markets

We were asked if we had any hedges in the portfolio and how we might hedge in the future. #strategist

Yet, after a lengthy bullish run, it always surprises me how quickly investors and the media panic with the slightest hint of a market pullback. #markets

As the economy started showing signs of slowing and the market began pricing in more rate cuts, Doctor Copper sprung a leak. #copper #growth

Overly optimistic investor expectations of market returns may be a problem. #markets #investing #finance #investors

In a stunning reversal of opinion, ex. New York Fed Governor Bill Dudley now calls on the Fed to immediately cut rates. #rates #Fed

Making sense of home sales and prices data is challenging as there is little activity in the real estate markets. #homes #realestate

In this particular case, we agree. There are risks to this current rally in small-cap stocks worth understanding. #markets

there is a wide range of outcomes, as shown by each experience and the minimum and maximum excess returns for each forward return period. #stocks

Question is whether that dominance will continue and if the same companies remain the leaders. It is an interesting question. #markets

An investor would have been much better off in bonds versus stocks during each of the last nine significant Fed Fund rate cuts. #markets

Goldman Sachs has been vocal over the last week or two, making a good case for the Fed to cut rates as soon as the July 31st FOMC meeting. #markets

CPI report, which was weaker than expected, the odds of Fed rate cuts by September rose sharply. #bonds #rates

While it may seem true during a rising bull market, the reality is that both bulls and bears are owned by the broken clock syndrome. #markets

While there has been a surge in private equity startups, there has also been the privatizing of public companies. #equity #alternatives

The odds of a rate cut at the July 31 meeting were near zero. Furthermore, the market was only pricing in one cut for the remainder of the year. #markets

The market remains overbought short-term, but the recent rally is close to flipping the short-term MACD sell signal. #markets

R Star is the real neutral rate of interest that balances the economy. Unfortunately, there is no way to calculate an economy’s R Star.

JOLTs report is one of many data points showing that the labor market is near or back to the prevailing conditions before the pandemic. #markets

Even as analysts lower that earnings bar, stocks have rallied sharply over the last few months. #markets #stocks

The result is the increasing pressure on financial advisors and portfolio managers to chase performance. Such is the basis of career risk. #advisors

Persistent rumors have been circulating for years that the Japanese government and/or BOJ will sell bonds to prop up its currency. #Japan #USA #markets

Just two weeks ago, I posted the following chart saying: We should soon start getting a raft of S&P 500 price target upgrades for year-end. #markets

Price premium between national and store brands for TreeHouse Foods, a private-label manufacturer, remains substantially higher than pre-pandemic. #markets

The fiscal policies implemented after the pandemic-driven economic shutdown created a surge in demand that further exacerbated an already extended market.

It’s certainly possible that global diversification isn’t dead, but it doesn’t mean the US is bound for underperformance. #markets

Unsurprisingly, investors have become increasingly exuberant about stock prices in conjunction with the market rally that began in 2022. #markets

He proposes that persistent inflation, increased military spending, and significant fiscal deficits could drive rates higher. #rates #markets

Inflation will likely approach the Fed’s 2% target when the CPI shelter costs catch up with actual data. #markets #inflation #CPI