J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Trade policy is one of the few areas of significant bipartisan agreement. However, the two sides differ in their approaches. #president #election

Expect the Fed will opt to cut by 25 basis points, but the pace and magnitude of the easing cycle thereafter will depend crucially on the Jobs mosaic.

Elevated public market valuations, historically low bond yields and positive stock-bond correlation are all challenges facing the traditional 60/40.

Over the past month, it has become clear that inflation is no longer the only risk on the Fed’s radar. #inflation #risk #Fed

How adding a diversified sleeve of alternatives to traditional stock/bond portfolios can help manage risk and improve return.

With the Fed cutting cycle likely to start in less than a month, investors should allocate to fixed income today to fully capture the decrease in yields.

Overall, investors should view pullbacks as an opportunity to step out of cash and ensure proper diversification. #markets

Global markets, including Japan, are adjusting to potentially softer growth in the U.S. and larger Fed rate cuts. #markets #Japan

Down sharply from a peak of 7.1% two years ago, with higher-frequency data suggesting inflation could resume its decline over the rest of the summer.

Tax and regulatory environment under a Republican Sweep all contributed to the significant rotation in the markets that has followed the June CPI report.

Policy changes are typically more significant, especially if they cause more USD strength. While the currency effect explains 20% of ann. #markets

New Popular Front’s victory is the second win for a left-wing party so far this month after a strong defeat of the Conservatives in the UK. #France

Inflation should continue to normalize, and as the Fed reduces interest rates albeit gradually this should exert modest downward pressure on interest rates

US names largely outperformed the rest of world, bonds did little as rate expectations crystalized, gold rallied and digital assets took a dive.

For those investors looking away from the recent winners, goods-exposed sectors may play an important role. #investing

CPI excludes homeowners’ insurance, this is unlikely to impact the Federal Reserve’s thought process on monetary policy. #CPI #strategy

Recent performance has been driven by significant upgrades in near-term AI demand projections. #AI #markets

Political analysts view Sheinbaum as a technocrat, she is also part of a left-leaning party with strong ideologies and aims to centralize power. #Mexico

Year-over-year headline inflation cooled to 3.3% from 3.4% down one decimal, yet the median FOMC rate forecast for 2024 moved higher. #markets

Other solutions are needed for inflation and deficit concerns. Private markets are a key place to look for alternative solutions. #strategy

In the last 10 years, markets like Taiwan and India have kept up with the U.S., returning 12.3% and 10.1% respectively, compared to 12.0% for U.S.#markets

Mortgage rates to decline modestly from ~7% to 6-6.5% over the next 12-24 months, however, it’s unlikely we will see mortgage rates below 5%. #rates

Artificial intelligence has the potential to drive a new wave of opportunities to improve efficiency, customization and agility in investment management.

The cost of auto insurance has rendered it unaffordable for many, leading to a rise in uninsured motorists, from 11% of drivers in 2019 to 14% in 2022.

AUM is considered dry powder, capital that has been raised but has not yet been committed, its growth and implications for credit markets cannot be ignored

A third of global exports, a quarter of global consumption, over a third of global savings – and five of the ten largest major equity markets. #Asia

Growth of housing units occupied by renters outpaced the growth of units occupied by owners, despite accounting for only a third of the housing stock #home

International equities deserve a second look, especially those in Asia, as attractive macro and microeconomic developments are unfolding. #strategy

Likely take an extraordinary change in the data to bring a June cut back on the table, but the Fed’s path thereafter is still to be determined. #Fed

Exit activity has been surprising as public equity markets repeatedly reach all-time highs this year, valuations rise, and earnings expectations improve.

Barring an unforeseen shock, gradually cooling consumption growth should allow for a soft landing. #economy #markets

In the aftermath of the attack, prices for both commodities modestly retreated – the barrage was largely unproductive. #Iran #markets

Over one-third of the world’s total volume, data in healthcare has historically been siloed and poorly organized, with over 80% unstructured. #data

Even during periods of tight spreads, credit performance has tended to be positive with annualized total returns averaging 2.6% for IG and 3.9% for HY.

The divergence in performance across assets, underscores the importance of diversification in a fundamentally uncertain world. #markets

Given already stretched valuations and unbridled enthusiasm for equities, can multiples continue to drive returns? #equity #markets

Given that markets spend about half the time within 5% of all-time highs, remaining on the sidelines can result in significant opportunity cost.

Since 1988, EM equities have delivered positive performance 24 months after the last Fed rate hike in four of the past five Fed rate cycles. #EM

Despite recent strong housing completions, homeowner and rental vacancy rates have hardly budged off their multi-decade lows. #strategists #homes

This chart shows consumer sentiment over the past 50 years and how much the S&P 500 gained or lost on average 12 months

As investors question the concentration risk in U.S. equities, Japan provides a good source of diversification in developed market equities. #Japan

A massive inter-generational wealth transfer, women are expected to control much of the $30 trillion in financial assets baby boomers will possess by 2030.

Over the past 50 years, there have been different regimes of U.S. vs. international outperformance, outperformance comes in waves

Continues to pursue its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, while maintaining its independence from politics. #markets

Therefore, pricing could be finding a floor in most sectors outside of office, presenting a compelling entry point. #RealEstate #markets

Europe and Japan, the return of inflation and positive interest rates is a game changer: earnings have improved as a result of higher end-consumer prices.

An equity investor who missed just the 10 best days since 2003 would have seen their annualized performance cut nearly in half. #markets

Active stock selection can maintain diversification while overweighting the best stocks, not necessarily the biggest. #strategy

Cut rates in 14 years without a recession and in 13 of those years or 93% of the time the market was positive and returned on average an impressive 15.6%.

After three tough years for Chinese equities, valuations incorporate a lot of cyclical and structural uncertainty and suggest a tactical rebound ahead.