J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Real GDP growth projections were upgraded to 2.5% this year, 2.1% in 2025, and reaches trend growth of 2% by the fourth quarter of 2026. #markets

More than 3,800 MW of capacity being built in the U.S., up about 70% from the prior year and another 7,000 MW in various stages of pre-construction.

Pro-growth, but also inflationary. If this is the case, the Fed could end its easing cycle early, leaving the federal funds rate at a higher terminal rate.

While Bitcoin’s returns have been impressive, they’ve come with extraordinary volatility, four times that of the S&P 500. #crypto

The most notable growth in liabilities under COVID-era QE were bank reserves +$2trn and the reverse repo facility RRP +$2.3trn. #markets

Google commands 89% of the global search engine market, Apple holds 51% of the U.S. mobile phone and tablet market, #tech

The effective U.S. corporate tax rate fell from 28% in the five years prior to the tax cut to 18% between 2018 and 2023. #taxes

Factors suggest that the Fed's path will be gradual, possibly settling at a higher level than their latest projections indicate. #tariff

In its penultimate meeting of 2024, the FOMC unanimously voted to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75% #markets

Since the onset of Trade War 1.0, the U.S. has increased its weighted average tariff rate on Chinese imports from 3% to 25% #trade.

With our base case of a soft landing, short rates are likely to be biased lower given declining policy rates, reducing the appeal of cash-like instruments.

Republican controlled Congress increases the potential for significant policy changes, including tax cuts, deregulation and higher tariffs. #markets #Trump

Trade policies remain in sharp focus, as the prospect for higher tariffs could strengthen the dollar. #trade #USA

Despite lackluster sentiment, Americans have not stopped spending. Consumption is expected to have grown at a solid 3% ann. pace in the third quarter

The Fed's rate cutting cycle should help lower mortgage rates over time, but it is more impactful for short rates. #home #rates

The combination of the stimulus announcement plus cheap valuations and underweight positions resulted in a surge in net flows into Chinese equities #China

Understanding how - and why - these changes have occurred is important to understanding the longer-term prospects for the U.S. economy.

Last two years, a 71% increase from the two years prior, with strong investment gains in the EV supply chain, solar manufacturing and battery technology.

After retracing 8.5% by early August, the S&P 500 had just about fully recovered by the end of the month, and subsequently powered to new highs #market

Family members and friends often provide unpaid eldercare – but it typically falls on adult children. #eldercare #finance #parents

Chinese policymakers have found a new sense of urgency to boost economic momentum. Will this stimulus move the needle for China’s economy and market?

Data centers are projected to drive significant growth in new electricity demand. #investing #datacenters #markets

In August, merchandise exports from Taiwan and Korea grew 16.8% y/y and 11.2%, respectively, with three-month averages also trending higher.

All told, while the U.S. dollar might soften modestly from here, it will soften unevenly against major global currencies. #dollar

More cuts are coming and despite a slightly larger cut to begin with, easing will still be gradual barring a more material slowdown in the economy #markets

Trade policy is one of the few areas of significant bipartisan agreement. However, the two sides differ in their approaches. #president #election

Expect the Fed will opt to cut by 25 basis points, but the pace and magnitude of the easing cycle thereafter will depend crucially on the Jobs mosaic.

Elevated public market valuations, historically low bond yields and positive stock-bond correlation are all challenges facing the traditional 60/40.

Over the past month, it has become clear that inflation is no longer the only risk on the Fed’s radar. #inflation #risk #Fed

How adding a diversified sleeve of alternatives to traditional stock/bond portfolios can help manage risk and improve return.

With the Fed cutting cycle likely to start in less than a month, investors should allocate to fixed income today to fully capture the decrease in yields.

Overall, investors should view pullbacks as an opportunity to step out of cash and ensure proper diversification. #markets

Global markets, including Japan, are adjusting to potentially softer growth in the U.S. and larger Fed rate cuts. #markets #Japan

Down sharply from a peak of 7.1% two years ago, with higher-frequency data suggesting inflation could resume its decline over the rest of the summer.

Tax and regulatory environment under a Republican Sweep all contributed to the significant rotation in the markets that has followed the June CPI report.

Policy changes are typically more significant, especially if they cause more USD strength. While the currency effect explains 20% of ann. #markets

New Popular Front’s victory is the second win for a left-wing party so far this month after a strong defeat of the Conservatives in the UK. #France

Inflation should continue to normalize, and as the Fed reduces interest rates albeit gradually this should exert modest downward pressure on interest rates

US names largely outperformed the rest of world, bonds did little as rate expectations crystalized, gold rallied and digital assets took a dive.

For those investors looking away from the recent winners, goods-exposed sectors may play an important role. #investing

CPI excludes homeowners’ insurance, this is unlikely to impact the Federal Reserve’s thought process on monetary policy. #CPI #strategy

Recent performance has been driven by significant upgrades in near-term AI demand projections. #AI #markets

Political analysts view Sheinbaum as a technocrat, she is also part of a left-leaning party with strong ideologies and aims to centralize power. #Mexico

Year-over-year headline inflation cooled to 3.3% from 3.4% down one decimal, yet the median FOMC rate forecast for 2024 moved higher. #markets

Other solutions are needed for inflation and deficit concerns. Private markets are a key place to look for alternative solutions. #strategy

In the last 10 years, markets like Taiwan and India have kept up with the U.S., returning 12.3% and 10.1% respectively, compared to 12.0% for U.S.#markets

Mortgage rates to decline modestly from ~7% to 6-6.5% over the next 12-24 months, however, it’s unlikely we will see mortgage rates below 5%. #rates

Artificial intelligence has the potential to drive a new wave of opportunities to improve efficiency, customization and agility in investment management.

The cost of auto insurance has rendered it unaffordable for many, leading to a rise in uninsured motorists, from 11% of drivers in 2019 to 14% in 2022.

AUM is considered dry powder, capital that has been raised but has not yet been committed, its growth and implications for credit markets cannot be ignored