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Beginning of a turnaround given the change in the international growth and interest rate backdrop, together with a potential shift in market leadership.
By the second half of the year, growth is likely to slow as the cumulative effects of higher rates are felt and inflation moderates. #inflation #strategy
Ongoing increases might suggest two more rate increases, we now expect the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting and then pause. #rates
Debt ceiling risks, although certainly not our base case, could derail the bond market recovery and foment significant volatility if realized. #debt #bond
It is too early to call the bottom (or top) for these markets, and more than anything, investors should expect volatility through the next several months.
The issue for the Fed is most committee members would prefer a U.S. Treasury-only balance sheet given the Fed now owns ~30% of the MBS market. #mortgages
Recession risks remain elevated amidst an uncertain outlook, stepping back into bonds as a portfolio hedge against an economic downturn seems appropriate