J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Anticipated policy decision, the Federal Open Market Committee FOMC voted to raise the Federal funds rate by 0.25% at its May meeting. #strategy

Many banks stepped away from riskier lending in the aftermath of 2008, creating an opportunity for private credit firms. #lending #risk

The announcement came roughly a year after President Biden signed an executive order tasking the Federal Reserve with looking into a CBDC. #crypto

Much of the stickiness that has been ascribed to core services may largely reflect the lingering hangover of supply chain issues. #strategy

Fed ponders its next step, investors should be mindful that the window of opportunity that has emerged in fixed income may slam shut quickly. #fixedincome

With a potential recession on the horizon and vulnerabilities in the financial system, investors ought to be selective. #bonds #income

Beginning of a turnaround given the change in the international growth and interest rate backdrop, together with a potential shift in market leadership.

There is an opportunity in retail services that will support further healing in the sector as the pandemic continues to fade. #realestate #commercial

Uncertainty remains about the cyclical path of U.S. policy and growth, the picture has gotten much clearer and more positive in China since late 2022.

By the second half of the year, growth is likely to slow as the cumulative effects of higher rates are felt and inflation moderates. #inflation #strategy

Several pro-growth changes occurred late last year that investors should not ignore. #China #investors #investments

The underlying components showed a more mixed inflation picture compared to the broad-based declines seen in prior months. #markets #inflation

The next decade is likely to be characterized by more normal inflation. As a result, not all recent central bank rate hikes will be unwound. #equity

Ongoing increases might suggest two more rate increases, we now expect the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points at its March meeting and then pause. #rates

Looking ahead to 2023 we see slower growth, a gradual deceleration in inflation, and monetary policy that remains tight. #investments #alternatives

Debt ceiling risks, although certainly not our base case, could derail the bond market recovery and foment significant volatility if realized. #debt #bond

We think it’s appropriate to revisit positioning within bond allocations while recognizing there remains a healthy degree of uncertainty. #income

Long-term investors, buying the dips – in both stocks and bonds—could become attractive in 2023, and diversification could stage a comeback.

Relative to the last 20 years, volatility across equities, bonds, and currencies were higher than normal. #investors #markets #2022

Consumers have been able to resume more normal spending patterns as the pandemic has gradually faded. #consumers #spending #money

This report reflects welcome progress on both core goods and services ex-housing. #inflation #housing #markets

Outlook is still uncertain, less bad news helps to reduce uncertainty when a lot of negativity has already been priced into multiples and currencies.

This years’ stress test shows that large banks have sufficient capital to absorb losses and can continue lending to households and businesses. #banks

It is too early to call the bottom (or top) for these markets, and more than anything, investors should expect volatility through the next several months.

Markets offer the best potential long-term returns in more than a decade.

Diversify portfolios away from heavily concentrated positions in risky assets. #investing #markets #millennials

Powell suggested that a smaller pace of rate hikes may come as soon as the next meeting. #markets #investing #strategy

With the conclusion of China’s Party Congress, investors are focused on whether policy uncertainty can also decrease. #markets #investors

Extending duration and reassessing corporate credit fundamentals will be important in adjusting bond allocations. #fixedincome #bonds #investing

Investors of all ages must realize that while inflation may impact them at an individual level, the big picture is worth paying close attention to.

Huge gap between labor demand and supply suggests that job openings can come down further without meaningfully pushing up the unemployment rate #jobs

The FOMC’s latest economic projections show a terminal Federal Funds Rate (FFR) at 4.6% in 2023. #money #finance #interestrates

The issue for the Fed is most committee members would prefer a U.S. Treasury-only balance sheet given the Fed now owns ~30% of the MBS market. #mortgages

It is important to remember that volatility creates opportunity for long-term investors. #investors #advisors #investing 

It’s policies that matter for markets, not politics, and it seems legal challenges could stall any broad sweeping student debt relief package.

EM equities have struggled in the first few months after the first rate hike, but subsequently recovered in the previous two tightening episodes.

Dividend payments could increase more than expected when this tax goes into effect next year. #investors #dividends

The Inflation Reduction Act advances key climate goals on the Administration’s agenda while reducing the deficit over the next decade.

The broad takeaway is that economic conditions are softening globally, and aggressive central bank tightening is contributing to it.

Different types of alternative investments will play very different roles in the context of a diversified portfolio. #investing #investor

For investors a data-dependent committee suggests an increase in the federal funds rate to above 3.5% in this cycle is now less likely.

It is important for investors to focus not on where returns have been, but instead where they could be going in the months and years ahead.

When protecting against inflation is a priority, real estate can provide a solution. #realestate #investing #advisors

Looking ahead, we recognize that recession risk has risen. That said, it seems premature to make a call that we are already in recession today.

The tragic war in Ukraine has led to an indiscriminate sell-off in European equities. The 1Q earnings season was strong for Europe.

Energy usage is the largest operating expense in commercial office buildings at roughly one-third of operating budgets. #energy

The message from the committee is clear, the Fed will expeditiously raise interest rates given it is “strongly committed” to tame inflation.

Companies have begun guiding earnings expectations lower in recent weeks, as it appears too difficult to continue ignoring rising costs.

Recession risks remain elevated amidst an uncertain outlook, stepping back into bonds as a portfolio hedge against an economic downturn seems appropriate

The data clearly show that when sentiment is at its lowest, future market returns are generally strong. #stockmarket #investing