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US 10Y has barely moved year -to-date -3bps, while the real yield component has fallen by 30bps, accounting for essentially all the move in long term rates
Eurozone Aerospace and Defense industry has seen impressive returns, even outperforming U.S. growth stocks by 100% on a cumulative basis since fall 2022.
Average workweek held steady at 34.1 hours after falling last month, indicative of slowing labor demand, although cold weather may have biased this lower.
Gains should translate into overall economic growth. Recent studies suggest AI could add between 1.5-3% to annual productivity growth over the next decade.
Investors find themselves in the thick of the policy fog, the tug-of-war between growth worries, inflation worries and fiscal concerns is set to continue.
Earnings for 2025 have already been revised down 5%-points since the start of the year, compared to large cap down 2%-points and mid cap down 3%-points.
Trump administration argues that this gives European companies an unfair advantage, especially due to the size of VATs in Europe, which average 20% #Trump
FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.50% during its first meeting of 2025, ending a three-meeting streak of rate cuts.
Pro-growth, but also inflationary. If this is the case, the Fed could end its easing cycle early, leaving the federal funds rate at a higher terminal rate.
In its penultimate meeting of 2024, the FOMC unanimously voted to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75% #markets
With our base case of a soft landing, short rates are likely to be biased lower given declining policy rates, reducing the appeal of cash-like instruments.
Republican controlled Congress increases the potential for significant policy changes, including tax cuts, deregulation and higher tariffs. #markets #Trump
The combination of the stimulus announcement plus cheap valuations and underweight positions resulted in a surge in net flows into Chinese equities #China
Last two years, a 71% increase from the two years prior, with strong investment gains in the EV supply chain, solar manufacturing and battery technology.
After retracing 8.5% by early August, the S&P 500 had just about fully recovered by the end of the month, and subsequently powered to new highs #market
More cuts are coming and despite a slightly larger cut to begin with, easing will still be gradual barring a more material slowdown in the economy #markets