J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Gains should translate into overall economic growth. Recent studies suggest AI could add between 1.5-3% to annual productivity growth over the next decade.

Investors find themselves in the thick of the policy fog, the tug-of-war between growth worries, inflation worries and fiscal concerns is set to continue.

Earnings for 2025 have already been revised down 5%-points since the start of the year, compared to large cap down 2%-points and mid cap down 3%-points.

Entering 2025, European equity valuations were average historically but heavily discounted versus the U.S. at 41% versus the average 16% #markets

Indicators like a low quits rate, declining job openings and labor-saving tech investments suggest more subdued wage momentum. #markets

Trump administration argues that this gives European companies an unfair advantage, especially due to the size of VATs in Europe, which average 20% #Trump

The Magnificent 7 have been the driving force behind S&P 500 returns over the past three years. #investing #chart #technology

In 2025, trade uncertainty has ramped up, but what distinguishes it from 2018 is that any tax reform passed may not be implemented until 2026 #markets

133 companies within the S&P 500 closed the year down 5% or more, with 356 companies experiencing a 5% pull-back at some point during the year.

The CNY depreciated by 16% vs. the USD, helping offset the impact of tariffs and facilitating trade diversification toward other markets. #markets

FOMC decided to maintain the federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.50% during its first meeting of 2025, ending a three-meeting streak of rate cuts.

Early benchmarks suggest that DeepSeek operates at just 3-5% of the computing cost of its competitors, making it over 20 times more efficient. #AI

The road ahead may be bumpy, with tariffs used as negotiation tools potentially causing short-term market volatility until deals are struck. #markets

Year-over-year comparisons get tougher, companies’ ability to defend their margins should be an increasingly important driver of earnings growth.

It's important to recognize that while the indicator has an impressive track record, no single economic metric is infallible. #economy

The number of people using government health programs like Medicaid and Medicare has increased from 43% in 2019 to 45% in 2023 #healthcare

The gap between U.S. 10-year bond yields and those of its key trading partners has widened to its highest level since 1994. #markets

Defied expectations sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse  underscoring the importance of maintaining a well-diversified portfolio.

In 2025, as tariffs fluctuate in the headlines, market opportunities may arise when tariff implementation and consequences are mispriced. #markets

Higher potential growth would justify a shallower easing cycle, as a more prosperous economy might sustain both higher interest rates and wage growth

Real GDP growth projections were upgraded to 2.5% this year, 2.1% in 2025, and reaches trend growth of 2% by the fourth quarter of 2026. #markets

More than 3,800 MW of capacity being built in the U.S., up about 70% from the prior year and another 7,000 MW in various stages of pre-construction.

Pro-growth, but also inflationary. If this is the case, the Fed could end its easing cycle early, leaving the federal funds rate at a higher terminal rate.

While Bitcoin’s returns have been impressive, they’ve come with extraordinary volatility, four times that of the S&P 500. #crypto

The most notable growth in liabilities under COVID-era QE were bank reserves +$2trn and the reverse repo facility RRP +$2.3trn. #markets

Google commands 89% of the global search engine market, Apple holds 51% of the U.S. mobile phone and tablet market, #tech

The effective U.S. corporate tax rate fell from 28% in the five years prior to the tax cut to 18% between 2018 and 2023. #taxes

Factors suggest that the Fed's path will be gradual, possibly settling at a higher level than their latest projections indicate. #tariff

In its penultimate meeting of 2024, the FOMC unanimously voted to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.50%-4.75% #markets

Since the onset of Trade War 1.0, the U.S. has increased its weighted average tariff rate on Chinese imports from 3% to 25% #trade.

With our base case of a soft landing, short rates are likely to be biased lower given declining policy rates, reducing the appeal of cash-like instruments.

Republican controlled Congress increases the potential for significant policy changes, including tax cuts, deregulation and higher tariffs. #markets #Trump

Trade policies remain in sharp focus, as the prospect for higher tariffs could strengthen the dollar. #trade #USA

Despite lackluster sentiment, Americans have not stopped spending. Consumption is expected to have grown at a solid 3% ann. pace in the third quarter

The Fed's rate cutting cycle should help lower mortgage rates over time, but it is more impactful for short rates. #home #rates

The combination of the stimulus announcement plus cheap valuations and underweight positions resulted in a surge in net flows into Chinese equities #China

Understanding how - and why - these changes have occurred is important to understanding the longer-term prospects for the U.S. economy.

Last two years, a 71% increase from the two years prior, with strong investment gains in the EV supply chain, solar manufacturing and battery technology.

After retracing 8.5% by early August, the S&P 500 had just about fully recovered by the end of the month, and subsequently powered to new highs #market

Family members and friends often provide unpaid eldercare – but it typically falls on adult children. #eldercare #finance #parents

Chinese policymakers have found a new sense of urgency to boost economic momentum. Will this stimulus move the needle for China’s economy and market?

Data centers are projected to drive significant growth in new electricity demand. #investing #datacenters #markets

In August, merchandise exports from Taiwan and Korea grew 16.8% y/y and 11.2%, respectively, with three-month averages also trending higher.

All told, while the U.S. dollar might soften modestly from here, it will soften unevenly against major global currencies. #dollar

More cuts are coming and despite a slightly larger cut to begin with, easing will still be gradual barring a more material slowdown in the economy #markets

Trade policy is one of the few areas of significant bipartisan agreement. However, the two sides differ in their approaches. #president #election

Expect the Fed will opt to cut by 25 basis points, but the pace and magnitude of the easing cycle thereafter will depend crucially on the Jobs mosaic.

Elevated public market valuations, historically low bond yields and positive stock-bond correlation are all challenges facing the traditional 60/40.

Over the past month, it has become clear that inflation is no longer the only risk on the Fed’s radar. #inflation #risk #Fed

How adding a diversified sleeve of alternatives to traditional stock/bond portfolios can help manage risk and improve return.