Greg Valliere

A good time for our quarterly ratings on the Republican primary field after the technology meltdown that afflicted Ron DeSantis last night.

Congress took way too long to ratchet up negotiations this spring, and now there’s probably not enough time to finish a deal by early June. #crisis

The risk of recession has increased as the outlook has darkened for commercial real estate. #realestate #recession

A TRUMP-CARLSON BRAWL would generate enormous publicity for the candidates, but could either win the general election?

WASHINGTON IS GRIPPED by five enormous issues this spring, with implications that will reverberate for years to come. #politics

We continue to believe that geopolitics will be a major wild card this year, as U.S. foreign policy friction increases. #US #foreignpolicy

Scenario that elevates Kamala Harris to the U.S. presidency is increasingly plausible. Here’s what many Washington insiders are talking about. #views

We’ve said for over a year that Russia cannot win this war, and we see no reason to change that assessment. #war #Ukraine

Despite the breathless media reaction to Donald Trump’s indictment, let’s not forget that the details are still sealed. #trump

Has every institution suffered a decline in confidence in recent years? #confidence #politics #government #banking

Ukraine has hung on to crucial cities in the East, while inflicting damage to Russian drones in Crimea. #poltics #ukraine

Was it a bailout? Janet Yellen and other officials don’t want to use that word, but it sure looks like a bailout to us. #banking #investors

We still believe Russia cannot win this war, and we continue to believe that Russian generals know they can’t win. #geopolitics

Fed rate hikes will not change the need to fill jobs now held by 14-year-olds, or jump-start the moribund Biden infrastructure and climate initiatives.

Joe Biden is not certain to seek re-election — as several Democrats keep their options open, ready to move if he doesn’t run. #politics

The possibility of a second Biden term will, of course, increase the focus on Kamala Harris. Is she ready for a potential presidency?

Most Americans aren’t buying Biden’s argument that the economy is in good shape. #economy #POTUS #finance #investing

Are factions within the Communist Party power structure trying to undermine the president? #china #politics #foreignrelations

Everyone seemingly wants spending restraint — but if this fight comes down to Social Security cuts, the Republicans will lose.

Will the Fed allow the U.S. to default on its debt? At the very last minute, the Fed may have to consider Powell’s loathsome option.

Progressive activists know there’s absolutely no chance that Congress could pass a wealth tax, so they are moving to Plan B. #tax #wealth

There aren’t enough workers to fill jobs in manufacturing, hospitality, food service, retail, health care, etc. #labor #economy #jobs

Chances that this will become a significant crisis, 100%. Chances that there will be a last-minute deal, avoiding default: 60%.

Russia’s war on Ukraine remains the top risk facing investors, but there are other potential threats to keep an eye on. #markets #investors

Once again another year ends with a reflection on the astonishing damage done by Covid-19 and its variants. #covid #finance 

The Ukrainians will survive the winter — and by spring it will become clear that Putin has met his match. #russia ukraine

Aggressive lawyers smell a huge payday not against FTX executives, who are broke and May face jail time — but against celebrities

It will take months — or longer — to sort out the damage Sam Bankman-Fried has done to Washington’s political class. #crypto

Moreover, there are plenty of reasons for optimism — let’s look at ten this morning. #optimism

A growing number of potential 2024 GOP challengers are now scrambling to launch presidential bids before Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The Fed Chairman is ready to signal that the central bankers will end their 75 basis point rate hikes. #economy #ratehikes 

Lawmakers will return to Washington on Nov. 29 without a clear plan to deal with spending issues, #politics #spending #finance

Gensler wants to fundamentally revamp the stock market’s inner workings, starting with much greater transparency. #regulations

Simply encouraged Republicans who are now testing the waters for 2024. It’s a potentially huge field here’s our look at the early Top Ten

Greg Valliere, AGF’s Chief U.S. Policy Strategist, breaks down the potential market and policy implications of the U.S. midterm election results.

Instead of the expected nasty post-mortems among the Democrats, Republicans are doing the finger pointing. #election2022

Neither the right nor the left will dominate Congress for the next two years, as Republicans head toward control of the House by a small majority

U.S. officials have told Zelensky and his top aides that Ukraine needs to send signals that it is willing to negotiate a deal to end the war.

None may have the explosive impact of Social Security and Medicare, both of which will probably need some benefit cuts to insure solvency.

The Biden Administration will continue to focus on aggressive regulation of pipelines, production, refining, etc. #windfall #profits #tax

Chairman Jerome Powell is becoming politicized; could he face internal pressure within the Fed?

WE STILL DON’T BELIEVE RUSSIA can win this war, but there are dark days ahead for Ukraine. #politics #war #ukraine #economy

Public anxiety over the economy is an enormous factor (even though the economy is fair shape, as this Thursday’s GDP report may show).

The House is looking like a landslide, which we asserted earlier this week. #politics #election #future #america

There’s talk in Washington about a landslide. That may be an exaggeration, but there’s a swing in the polls toward Republicans. #politics

The big surprise is that the Supreme Court reversal of Roe v. Wade has NOT become a dominant issue. #politics #elections 

Gasoline prices are now rising, especially in the Western U.S., where there are several close House and Senate races. #energy #elections

We reiterate that Republicans will capture the House, with the Senate now too close to call. #washington #politics #economy

Funding for the new fiscal year will not pass any time soon; a continuing resolution will be necessary, setting Dec. 16 as the deadline.

The Fed may react to the market crash and economic softening by easing up a bit, hiking the funds rate by 50 basis points, not 75.