Greg Valliere

The only take-away that matters is Hur’s claim that Biden cannot remember basic facts, such as when he served as vice president.

There’s a major wild card that totally scrambles the outlook: the third party challenge by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. #politics #election

Geopolitics is the dominant concern, as a fear grows that the Mideast war will expand. #politics #geopolitics #investing

This looks like a goldilocks economy, and if Americans finally begin to believe that, Joe Biden has a decent chance of winning re-election.

The republican party is falling into line, not just supporting Donald trump’s candidacy, but accepting most of his agenda. #politics

Mike Johnson has the support and trust that Kevin McCarthy never had, and Johnson is going to spend his political capital on immigration.

One Serious Legal Issue, One Serious Budget Issue as Congress Returns #Congress #budgets 

The 2024 U.S. presidential election could have far-reaching implications for financial markets. #election2024 #politics

Picks for the political and economic stories to watch in 2024, with some forecasts on their outcome. Here’s our first take on the 2024 landscape#2024

Increasing numbers of Democrats, fearing steep House and Senate losses, want Biden to consider dropping out. #election24

A look at a second term Donald Trump agenda, as he sails toward the GOP nomination and is running neck-and-neck with Joe Biden

Cutting off the flow of U.S. weapons and equipment will kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield. #geopolitics #war #funding

A recession seems unlikely not with solid real disposable income, thanks to plunging gasoline prices and the strong labor market. #views

Not more criminal charges, not verbal gaffes, nothing — seems sufficient to take down Trump even though Haley now has some momentum. #elections

Biden now trails Trump among young voters, which isn’t supposed to happen to a Democrat. #election2024 #politics

Biden reportedly is angry over the widespread dismissal of his accomplishments. #election24 #potus #america

What would happen if either Joe Biden or Donald Trump dropped out of the presidential race. #election24 #politics #geopolitics

Considering China’s shaky economy, Xi may be more inclined to negotiate, according to several analyses this morning. #geopolitics

LAST NIGHT’S REPUBLICAN DEBATE wasn’t memorable, but it will further winnow the field. #election2024 #politics

Andy Beshear is an intriguing new Democrat bright, likable, young and most importantly, he’s a moderate who appeals to Republicans.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a factor in next year’s presidential campaign. He has little chance of winning but could determine the winner.

Mike Johnson, 51. The Louisiana conservative is a fascinating new player, well liked within all factions of the GOP. #politics

Not only is the House paralyzed, now even the Senate is balking over huge new spending on Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and U.S. border security.

If Biden returns from the Mideast without any tangible progress, with a war raging in Gaza, his critics will pounce. #mideast #biden

This summer of labor unrest — from UPS to Hollywood — may end with a strike that could last into the fall. #auto #unions 

It’s been a remarkable summer, with some extraordinary developments. Here’s our Top Ten themes. #america #world #life

Some issues pale in comparison to the one albatross Joe Biden can’t shake — that he’s too old to serve another term. #election2024

Atlanta Fed GDPnow released its latest guesstimate of economic growth yesterday — a red-hot 5.8% surge is possible this quarter. #growth #economy

Trump could win another term, a prospect that almost certainly would lure a serious Democratic challenger into the race by fall.

The deal is off, becoming a major political issue, largely because Biden was denied his key wish: immunity from any other prosecution.

The economy continues to grow and inflation has not been totally subdued, so it’s extremely unlikely that the Fed will consider rate cuts until 2024.

Clearing land mines and probing for weaknesses along the border with Russia, Ukrainian troops have finally begun to move in earnest. #Ukraine #Russia

We’re probably headed for a cringe-inducing race between Biden and Trump, with a third party candidate in the mix. #election24

Congress will not regulate artificial intelligence in 2023, largely because members have so little knowledge of the AI problems and the remedies. #AI

The Ukrainian forces have an opening: Russian troops and Wagner conscripts are in disarray. #geopolitics #war #ukraine

 Among other things, it would enable clawing back up to two years of compensation for top executives of failed banks. #banks #laws

The gross national debt topped $32 trillion, with no solution in sight. Total red ink will surge to about $50 trillion. #deficit

It happens frequently in the summer. We have two candidates, potential wild cards that could emerge in the next few weeks. #Summer #change

A good time for our quarterly ratings on the Republican primary field after the technology meltdown that afflicted Ron DeSantis last night.

Congress took way too long to ratchet up negotiations this spring, and now there’s probably not enough time to finish a deal by early June. #crisis

The risk of recession has increased as the outlook has darkened for commercial real estate. #realestate #recession

A TRUMP-CARLSON BRAWL would generate enormous publicity for the candidates, but could either win the general election?

WASHINGTON IS GRIPPED by five enormous issues this spring, with implications that will reverberate for years to come. #politics

We continue to believe that geopolitics will be a major wild card this year, as U.S. foreign policy friction increases. #US #foreignpolicy

Scenario that elevates Kamala Harris to the U.S. presidency is increasingly plausible. Here’s what many Washington insiders are talking about. #views

We’ve said for over a year that Russia cannot win this war, and we see no reason to change that assessment. #war #Ukraine

Despite the breathless media reaction to Donald Trump’s indictment, let’s not forget that the details are still sealed. #trump

Has every institution suffered a decline in confidence in recent years? #confidence #politics #government #banking

Ukraine has hung on to crucial cities in the East, while inflicting damage to Russian drones in Crimea. #poltics #ukraine

Was it a bailout? Janet Yellen and other officials don’t want to use that word, but it sure looks like a bailout to us. #banking #investors