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The State of the U.S. Economy and What’s Ahead
What is this chart showing?
This chart uses a combination of hard (numerical) and soft (survey) data to provide a snapshot of how several important economic indicators are trending.
Why is it important?
Despite widespread forecasts for a 2023 recession, the U.S. economy remained surprisingly resilient.
Inflation continued its orderly decline throughout the year, while high interest rates proved to be no match for American consumers, who powered economic growth through robust spending.
Despite modest cooling in some areas, there are signs the economic resiliency could continue in the near term.
That said, the biggest risks to the economy are often the ones we don’t see coming. So, there is the potential that this picture could change rapidly.
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Sources and Methodology for Economic Dashboard
- CEO Confidence via. The Conference Board. The Conference Board Measure of CEO ConfidenceTM is a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy from the perspective of U.S. chief executives. The Measure of CEO ConfidenceTM is based on CEOs' perceptions of current and expected business and industry conditions. The survey also gauges CEOs' expectations about future actions their companies plan on taking in four key areas: capital spending, employment, recruiting, and wages. A reading below 40 indicates that CEOs maintain a negative outlook regarding what’s ahead for the economy. A measure in the range of 40–50 indicates that CEOs maintain a cautious outlook regarding what’s ahead for the economy. A reading above 50 indicates that CEOs maintain a positive outlook regarding what’s ahead for the economy.
- Inflation: Based on the 3-month moving average trend (last 3 observations) in headline CPI as of Dec. 2023 via. the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2024 expectations based on PCE inflation median projection from the Dec. 2023 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections.
- Economic Growth: Based on 3-quarter trend in U.S. GDP (percent change seasonally adjusted annual rate as of Q4 2023) via. the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2024 expectations based on median projection from the Dec. 2023 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections.
- Labor market: Based on the 3-month moving average trend (last 3 observations) in total nonfarm job additions and the 3- month moving average trend (last 3 observations) in unemployment rate via. the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as of data available on February 2, 2024.
- Consumer finances: Household debt service payments as a percent of disposable personal income as of Q3 2023 via. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Pre-pandemic level defined as ratio value in Q1 2020. Credit card delinquencies as of Q3 2023 and based on 3-quarter trend in delinquency rate on credit card loans, all commercial banks via. the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
- Retail spending: Based on the 3-month moving average trend (last 3 observations) in year-over-year retail sales growth as of December 2023 via the U.S. Census Bureau, and the 3-month moving average trend (last 3 observations) in consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index as of January 2024.