The Long-Term Outlook for Social Security

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What is this chart showing?

This chart shows the actual and projected Social Security Asset Trust Fund reserve amounts at year-end from 1994 through 2035, in billions of U.S. dollars.

Why is it important?

The 2024 annual Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) trustees report by the Social Security Administration (SSA) showed that given current conditions, the asset reserve dedicated to the benefit program could be depleted sooner rather than later.

Absent reform, the projected depletion date for the combined OASDI trust funds is 2035, a year earlier than in last year’s report.

Even after this happens, the program will still collect taxes, which means that it will be able to continue to pay benefits to retirees. However, the benefits will likely be smaller than they are now.

Related: Economic Resilience Tempering Rate Cut Expectations

Source: Social Security Administration (SSA). Historical data sourced from Social Security Administration Operations of the OASDI Trust Fund Report, Calendar Years 1937 – 2023. 2024 onwards data sourced from Social Security Administration Operations of the OASDI Trust Fund Report, Fiscal Year 2023. Shaded region on chart indicates future projections.