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All three major indices did great in the risk-on continuation – two opening selling attempts didn‘t reach far enough as the money on the sidelines overpowered those waiting for the sizable gap being closed. But that‘s not how it works when a major macro shift occurs, and the rising odds of a sweep is such a cherry on top.
The only major risk for today remains the FOMC (conference delivery), and I wrote already Sunday that:
(…) rates are rising while a rate cut is being expected. The current odds of 1% that there is no cut, is wildly underappreciated, inaccurate – that‘s what the bond market is telling us, regardless of the steepening and term premium rising. At the same time, I don‘t think the Fed would like to risk disappointing the market demands.
Diving into the many (altogether six and a snapshot from our channel) charts presented, I‘ll start with the risk-on strength positioning view, status of the dollar, and why I didn‘t expect a great S&P 500 surge after yesterday‘s closing bell (judging from intraday traders‘ point of view in our channel).
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