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S&P 500 gyrated as befits quad (triple) witching, but what has changed? Did higher for longer odds go up on PMIs coming in slightly above expectations?
Not really, the odds of no cut in Sep are still comfortably low at 34%. While not exactly soft landing supportive, did it force any move to speak of, even on the short end of the curve? Look at the no rally chart below, and then at the troubled, troubling, place your adjective of choice, market breadth in the S&P 500.
What though to do with the dollar, USDJPY on the march, Norinchukin fear mongering, NVDA insider selling and its two day drop of around 10%? Are technical charts showing damage, much damage? You just see market breadth on pause as rotations are underway from Nasdaq to the benefit of some discretionaries and communications companies, to name a few. Also industrials have held up quite well during the rising dollar.
So, the only who truly took it on the chin during PMIs Friday, were precious metals, where an important move is looming as much as in oil.